Despite the rumors, lead times for the iPhone 14 Pro line show strong demand

It seems to happen every year. Statistics indicate a slight drop in sales of the new iPhone series alarming analysts who downgrade the stock. The news gets around and stories are written about the drop off in sales for the new handsets and tipsters write about Apple ordering a drop in iPhone production. Another look at the data ensues and this time the numbers show that Apple is back on track with iPhone sales exactly where they were forecast to be.

Well, 2022 is no exception. Just the other day we passed along word from Bloomberg that Apple was going to cut iPhone 14 production by as many as 6 million units. That led Bank of America to lower its rating on Apple's stock as an investment. But another brokerage house has looked at other data and has come to a different conclusion.

Investment firm Evercore, according to Seeking Alpha, has seen a lengthening of the lead times for the iPhone 14 Pro models. The lead time is how long it takes you to receive your iPhone from the day it is ordered. Longer lead times usually indicate strong demand for a product. Evercore Analyst Amit Daryanani says that the lead times for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max have recently increased between one and six days for all markets except for Japan.

Darvanani says that lead times for the iPhone 14 Pro Max are in the "low 30s day zone" which means that you'll have to wait over a month to get the phone delivered. Earlier this month, the iPhone 14 Pro Max had a lead time of 36.5 days, the highest for an Apple product in six years. The lead time for the iPhone 14 Pro is in the "low to high 20s day range."

In the U.S., the iPhone 14 Pro Max has a lead time of 32 days while the iPhone 14 Pro weighs in with a 25-day lead time.

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In China, the iPhone 14 Pro Max has a lead time of 36 days while the iPhone 14 Pro takes 29 days to be delivered. In the same country, the basic iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus are seeing "materially higher" lead times than the lead times that these models have in other markets. Even though the non-Pro iPhone 14 models have lower lead times in general compared to the Pro models, they have recently increased by anywhere between three and five days.

The analyst has a "buy" rating on Apple's stock and says, "Our assessment remains – that while units will be stable to slightly up, the real story here is [average selling prices] will be up high single digits in [second-half], enabling upside to not just the September quarter, but likely [the] December quarter," By differentiating the non-Pro and Pro iPhone 14 models this year as never before, the tech giant was hoping to hear news like this since the Pro models are more expensive and deliver more profits to Apple.

Apple made sure that only the more expensive iPhone 14 Pro models were equipped with the new A16 Bionic chip and the new multitasking Dynamic Island notification center. The non-Pro iPhone 14 models not only continue to sport the notch, but they feature last year's A15 Bionic SoC.

Other differences in the Pro models include the new 48MP image sensor (versus 12MP on the non-Pro phones), a 120Hz refresh rate not used on the cheaper units, and a faster version of the 6GB RAM memory chip.

While analysts can use "gut feel," charts, supply chain sources, and other tools to help them analyze Apple, nothing can give them a snapshot of demand for a particular new iPhone model than its lead time. Still, investors continue to pummel Apple's shares. Over the last five trading days, the stock has dropped $11.68 or 7.8% to $138.20.