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Some analysts say strength of BlackBerry Z10 sales due to low supply

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Some analysts say strength of BlackBerry Z10 sales due to low supply
Immediately after the launch of the BlackBerry Z10 in the U.K. came word that sales of the new model were strong and that the white variant of the all-touch model had sold out while the black device was hard to find in stock. Reports of strong sales continued when the device launched in Canada on Tuesday. But even some analysts who are excited about the Z10's hot start in the U.K. and Canada are negating the news by saying that the demand for the device is overstated due to low volume in the sales channel. RBC Capital analyst Mark Sue at first sounds extremely bullish on the Z10 sales. In a note to clients that went out to clients today, Sue said that sales at the 40 Canadian stores that he tracks were strong with some stores selling out by the end of the day.

While that all sounds good, Sue tempers the optimism by saying that the stores told him that their inventories of the BlackBerry Z10 were low. According to Sue, each store was given 5 to 10 units for walk-ins and 20 to 30 for pre-orders. Then Sue shifted back into bull mode again to claim that the U.K. launch had exceeded RIM's expectations and that the Z10 was #4 on uSwitch UK’s website ahead of the Google Nexus 4 and the Nokia Lumia 920 (the Apple iPhone 5 remains on top).

Checks at 40 stores in Canada indicate sell-through of the BlackBerry Z10 smartphone is strong on its launch day, with numerous stores selling out towards the end of the day. Z10 pre-orders reached record highs (for BlackBerry). Supply appears limited, with stores allocated avg. 5-10 units/store for walk-ins and est. 20-30 units/store for pre-orders. Sell-through of the BlackBerry Z10 in the UK is exceeding RIM’s expectations, with some stores sold out as well. The Z10 now ranks #4 on uSwitch UK’s website ahead of the Nexus 4 and Lumia 920 (#1 remains iPhone 5). BlackBerry will launch the Z10 in other parts of Western Europe this week. Bear in mind however, BlackBerry’s presence in those countries combined is less than its sub base in the UK.-Mark Sue, RBC Capital

T. Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity took the air out of the balloon when he also confirmed the strong U.K.sales, but said that they were due to low volume of initial inventory that stores received. He says that most stores received less than 15 units and sold out of most of that stock in the first 2 to 3 days leading to sellouts at some locations and low inventory levels at others.

Our U.K. store surveys post the recent launch of the Z10 smartphone indicated solid initial sales. However, limited initial supply was cited as the reason for early post-launch stock-outs at some carrier stores versus overwhelming demand. In fact, our surveys indicated most stores received less than 15 units and sold a majority of these units over a two- to three-day period, leading to initial stock-outs at a few stores and low inventory levels at others.-T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity

James Faucette of Pacific Crest says that BlackBerry has used a strategy of making the phone scarce on purpose in order to guarantee sellouts, thus negating the positive aspects of the sellouts that the BlackBerry Z10 has been experiencing.
The launch of the Z10 has shown more early demand than other high-profile but ultimately severely disappointing launches in the past few years,” the analyst noted. “In those cases, there was excess inventory by the end of the first full quarter of shipments.” According to Faucette’s estimates, the BlackBerry Z10′s quarterly run rate will land between 100,000 and 150,000 units in the UK following the February quarter. The United Kingdom has accounted for approximately 10% of BlackBerry sales over the past few years, which implies global demand of roughly 1 million to 1.5 million units per quarter which we believe would be a disappointment,” Faucette added. “Further, we would note that given the Z10’s high price point, we believe the U.K. could end being a higher percentage of the global market for the Z10 than for BlackBerry overall-James Faucette, Pacific Crest

All three analysts say that despite the early success of the BlackBerry Z10, the company's still has its hardest work in front of them.
The toughest challenge for BB10 is re-gaining consumer smartphone share in the crucial US market. So far so good, yet BB10 needs to overcome user lock-in to Android and iPhone content ecosystems. Samsung’s new GS4 may come earlier this year, as well as Apple’s refresh, making it an even tougher environment in the spring. Microsoft (MSFT) also surpassed BlackBerry in the US for the first time since 2006-Mark Sue, RBC Capital

There is no denying that there is a buzz around BlackBerry now, something that hasn't been there since 2007. And whether or not inventories have been deliberately kept low by Waterloo, the buzz that has been created could help drive sales in the all-important U.S. market. That is where the money lies. Looking at it that way, BlackBerry has certainly achieved its goal of getting everyone talking about its new phones while the delay of the U.S.launch until late March gives the company a chance to not only get U.S. consumers hyped-up about BlackBerry 10, but also gives them the chance to build sufficient quantity of the Z10.

source: BGR

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posted on 06 Feb 2013, 13:53 8

1. davecann2 (Posts: 460; Member since: 15 Mar 2011)

I called it!

Like I said in previous posts... With all the hype for the new BB phones the truth of the matter is that the majority of users won’t be switching from their current iPhone or Androids.

I would love to see BB succeed. It opens the door for competition and better innovation. But after seeing these phones in action I can honestly say that the experience isn’t anything new or innovative. Just my opinion =)

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 13:56 3

3. XPERIA-KNIGHT (unregistered)

its still called..... "just starting"... man............what about updates? do we really expect this thing to be an "over night success" ?

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 13:59 1

4. davecann2 (Posts: 460; Member since: 15 Mar 2011)

Good point...

Maybe I'm speaking too soon. I think the real test will come when competitors release their Spring lineup... SGS3 and iPhone 5s.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 14:03 3

5. XPERIA-KNIGHT (unregistered)

the goal as of now is "3rd place" bro........not 1st or second.........not dethroning apple or samsung.......they have to climb the mountain first before they can look down at world....

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 14:15 8

6. davecann2 (Posts: 460; Member since: 15 Mar 2011)

If thats the goal then... One thing is for sure... I would rather buy a BB then a Windows phone.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 15:21 1

10. TheMan (Posts: 493; Member since: 21 Sep 2012)

I agree that there's fruit fly-sized buzz and I am anxious to see it continue at US launch -- even in the face of competitor's spring launches. But I think the goal would be more than "just" 3rd place. A true win would be double-digit market share by year-end. I wouldn't expect it though.

I am a long-time BB detractor, but I'm a consumerist who knows we all benefit from a competitive marketplace.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 16:53 4

14. ZeroCide (Posts: 785; Member since: 09 Jan 2013)

Really!!! I'd Rather have a Nokia with windows phone than this BB with BBOS. I think that even HTC makes thier phones better.

did you see this atricle


posted on 06 Feb 2013, 13:53

2. tusshharish (Posts: 342; Member since: 23 Oct 2012)

yes ! yes ! I agree too......it is onle due to low supply

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 19:09 1

18. wendygarett (unregistered)

BlackBerry has enter the nexus 4 path... Maybe bb has under estimate the consumers wants lol

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 14:24 1

7. InspectorGadget80 (unregistered)

Soke analyst are dumb. No one dont know how many shipments black berry is shipping out

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 19:22

20. InspectorGadget80 (unregistered)

I mean some. sorry bout that.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 14:58 2

8. kushki (Posts: 49; Member since: 19 Nov 2012)

I think, the Blackberry sales should be very high initially considering all the previous blackberry loyalists who kept using their outdated devices now have something to upgrade to. Not only they deserve it but also to show their iOS/android/WP using friends that they also have a cool device. The real question is, can Blackberry convert the people from other platforms.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 15:12 1

9. Desmund (Posts: 74; Member since: 01 Nov 2012)

I do want to see BB succeed because like others say it's better for us in the end more competition brings out the best in people basically.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 16:03 1

11. wizzardtech (Posts: 59; Member since: 12 Mar 2012)

yes i want them to succeed. With better competition it gives a lot of advantages to the consumer. But can they live up til the new phone comes Like galaxy s4,M7 or iphone5s??
Can they compete with other brands when it comes to hardware,features and experience?

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 16:24 6

12. idroidequis (Posts: 103; Member since: 23 Jan 2013)

The thing is many people on this site want a monopoly either through android, apple, BB or WP. So many die hards here that dont understand that competition breeds innovation. And Im sure that if there was a monopoly they would use that power to suck our pockets dry of money. Dont believe me? Go read a history book. Humans are greedy people. I think the day any of these OS dies would be a sad day. Im still excited to see firefox os, tizen and all the other upcomming os.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 19:00 1

17. Desmund (Posts: 74; Member since: 01 Nov 2012)

True I'll admit die hard Droidhead(lol), but I do want more than Droid, Apple, WP, and BB dominating the place because then it'll be just like Sprint, AT&T, T-mobile, and Verzion so few choices yet they got ya by the bells(you know what I mean). It's like with car choices we have an infinite amount of those some good others bad, some the greatest if we ever get to that point though I'll be shocked.

posted on 07 Feb 2013, 05:32

23. snowgator (Posts: 3604; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)

Excellent post. If Android continues to improve what is already an amazing OS, it will be due to the competition coming after them. In that regard, Android fans should send Thank-you notes to Apple, Microsoft, BlackBerry, and the other upstarts in the OS race for helping to improve their product. If WP 8 improves, I intend to send one to Google.

If not, I intend to buy something from Google. Everybody wins.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 16:40 4

13. PermanentHiatus (Posts: 267; Member since: 22 Jun 2012)

"Some analysts say strength of BlackBerry Z10 sales due to low supply"

That title doesn't even make sense.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 17:09 1

15. jroc74 (Posts: 6019; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)

Honestly...I think that about alot of phones not named iPhone or Samsung. HTC and Moto....maybe them too. Maybe the Lumia too. LG...still dont know about the Nexus 4.

In a few months we will soon know when market share results come out. And best selling phones on carriers articles come out

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 17:47 3

16. MC1123 (Posts: 1256; Member since: 12 Nov 2012)

so negative! SFTU!!!

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 19:20 3

19. DerryAhmad (Posts: 287; Member since: 05 May 2012)

What's with these analysts?

First.. they said they're skeptical about Blackberry Z10 sales. And when many sites reported the Z10 strong sales, they said it was due to low supply. What a negative nancy!!
It's the Lumia 920 all over again.
What next? The supply of Z10 is not as much as iPhone 5?? LOL...

It's been reported that the first week sales of the Z10 is 3 x the best selling blackberry ever in the UK, where in Canada the first day Z10 sales tops the previous best selling blackberry by 50%. That's pretty good IMO.

posted on 06 Feb 2013, 22:05 1

21. thealphageek1 (banned) (Posts: 942; Member since: 02 Feb 2013)

I call BS on these analyst. The BlackBerry ceo himself made a statement that is the total opposite of these analysts are saying:WATERLOO, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – Feb. 6, 2013) – BlackBerry(R) (NASDAQ:BBRY)(TSX:BB) today issued the following statement:
"In Canada, yesterday was the best day ever for the first day of a launch of a new BlackBerry smartphone. In fact, it was more than 50% better than any other launch day in our history in Canada," said Thorsten Heins, President & CEO of BlackBerry. "In the UK, we have seen close to three times our best performance ever for the first week of sales for a BlackBerry smartphone." I believe Thorsten Heins over these analyst. He would definitely have more in-depth knowledge of how many handsets his company is selling.

posted on 07 Feb 2013, 05:26 2

22. snowgator (Posts: 3604; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)

And here comes the backlash, sooner then I thought. The second we saw the story about good sales for BB10 devices in the UK, I posted to just wait for the negative. I even mentioned how the good sales for the Nokia 920 turned on them. Improved sales were not good enough, and shortages were the end of days. Somehow, WP 8 devices for HTC and Nokia exceding their projections ended up being a bad thing. I expected BB10 to get the same treatment.

I just find it amusing. We all know mobile develops fast, but... ONE WEEK? We are supposed to see trends for BB10 ONE WEEK after launch???

There is going to be HUGE buzz for the next iPhone (or "iPhones" if gossip is true) and the next Gen Key Lime Pie flagships for Android. WP 8 is expected to have a huge upgrade in a matter of months, and BB10 will be launched and promoted in earnest by then.

This time next year, winners and losers will be established. I find it crazy to try and predict anything at this point, even from the end of 2012 sales. All these new OS's may change the landscape. Or they may all flop. It is just crazy to predict at this point.

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