Nomura: Apple Pay won't boost Apple's earnings by much

Nomura: Apple Pay won't boost Apple's earnings by much
According to Nomura Equity Research analyst Stuart Jeffrey, Apple's new mobile payment system called Apple Pay is designed to bring buyers to the Apple iPhone. Based on his calculations, it certainly isn't being offered to make money for Apple. Jeffrey says that if Apple manages to grab 60% of the share for mobile payments, it could boost revenue by 0.3% to 0.6%. The bottom line would see an increase of just 13 cents a share for fiscal 2016. Jeffrey expects Apple to make $7.30 a share in earnings before adding in the possible contribution from Apple Pay. That is a meager 1.7% increase in profits from the mobile payment system, if the analyst is correct.

Jeffrey told clients on Friday that the new mobile payment system will have a small impact on Apple because of the massive size of the tech titan. And that even takes into account the word that JP Morgan Chase is charging Apple a lower transaction fee, than the rate charged credit card companies by the bank.

The hard part for Apple will be persuading merchants to install the point of sale hardware that will enable iPhone users to complete a transaction by swiping or tapping their phone. Other mobile payment platforms like the recently renamed Softcard, and Google Wallet, have yet to really catch on in a big way. This means that Apple will have to work its magic to make mobile payments more than just a feature on its popular handsets.


source: WSJ, NYT

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36 Comments

1. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

It's largely a smoke and mirrors show with Apple when it comes to "new features". It is like when they made a big deal out of panorama mode and slow motion video. Largely gimmicks to attract the uninformed. They usually release the same phone as the year before, with one new hardware feature (so they don't get blamed for their Siri-esque behavior) and then hype it to hell with their marketing machine. With a non-critical thinking fanbase, they usually are able to pull in enough people to buy their products to take them into the next one successfully.

2. Mxyzptlk unregistered

Don't be ignorant

9. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

Don't know what ignorance has to do with this but I'll take that as constructive advice. I assume you're disagreeing with what I said based on your past behavior so I expect you'll have some examples of how I am wrong (or ignorant...).

10. fzacek

Posts: 2486; Member since: Jan 26, 2014

You're the ignorant one here...

21. JakeLee

Posts: 1021; Member since: Nov 02, 2013

Do not underestimate him. He is capable of writing eleven hundred Hello World *apps* in Java per day while it takes days for me to finish a *function* in assembly.

5. AlikMalix unregistered

Flash, are you serious? My home videos have gotten so much more flare now that I got 120fps slo-mo. "Dont forget once you got 120fps you can easily edit that to 100fps, or 80fps just to make that shot a little more dramatic than at regular speed. I use iMovie to edit videos - First I had to for a project, now it's just more fun than playing some games. Back from a trip - make a Trip Video, much better way to gather the croud. There's so much power with slo-mo... and I can't wait for 240fps with iPhone 6. Dont forget other "new features" that Apple introduced that pushed the smartphone industry further: Multi-Touch Natural Gestures (yes before apple you had to move the scroller on the right and tap arrows - even the damn "swipe to unlock" gestures to insure no accidental unlocking happens) App Store Voice Assistant CarPlay Touch ID 64bit Many More... LOL even them "Widgets" that Android guys love so much were originally on a Mac.. They were not the first to some of these, but they made these things standard. Trust me, Apple Pay will tip that NFC thing Android guys were hugging over the tipping point - and make it a standard. They got the funds and know-how to do it. I mean, they convinced all credit cards, thousands of merchants, and now half of the banks to at least invest into it. Give it a moment - Apple's iPhone with NFC isn't even in the hands of consumers yet and you're already dissing the idea...

8. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

It is good to have Apple finally adopt NFC and yes it should really help push NFC in the US (most other developed countries already have it). I'm not saying it won't help people, but as with some of your examples, those things are already there. The S4, HTC One, etc. all had slow motion video at a higher quality than Apple's (look into the Apple up-scaling slow motion issue). App stores existed for nearly every other mobile platform, it just wasn't called App store. Voice assistants have been around forever, even Apple bought Siri (and then somehow made it worse and exclusive to the 4s). CarPlay is meh, it isn't even anything new, people have been implementing better versions just by attaching nexus 7's to their dashes. Multi-touch and natural gestures have been on other devices but Apple did bring them to mobile first. Thing is, that was over half a decade ago, and they've long lived through the goodwill and accolades from that. Now with NFC, they have finally joined the rest of the group. Thing is, since they control almost half the US market, they literally have held that market back for 4-5 years by not adopting NFC with the rest. There have been several articles on how the industry was waiting on Apple to adopt NFC in order to invest in it or not because they literally own half the market. But by not including NFC (probably to save money on devices component costs), Apple has indirectly held back the entire US industry in the adoption of NFC. That while calling it useless and gimmicky and marketing against it. Now they're going to call it revolutionary? The hypocrisy is half the problem with Apple and Apple supporters and why a lot of the tech community doesn't respect them.

12. AlikMalix unregistered

Dude your anti-apple scars are showing... I never said Apple was first to have slo-mo, I just corrected you when you said that it was gimmicky - eventhough it became one of the most used video feature that I know - I shoot nearly everything in 120fps and then decide if I need it slowed or not. I tried HTC One's slo-mo and guess what - it is not as fluid as the one on 5S - now it's 240fps (I'm sure you know an Android phone that had that too). App Stores didn't really exist unless you're talking that lame little depository you get from a manufacturer - we both know how much bigger and different App Store was when that was introduced. Voice Assistants did exist but as a 3rd party App versions (including Siri, that I had on my 3GS and no it was barely useful vs the 4S introduction Siri) But it took 3 years for Google to finally introduce an integrated voice assistant and it's still an App version for many androids - not integrated like Siri is thru iOS and Apple Apps. Car Play, not new? Have you ever owned a car that when you introduce your iOS device will get completely overlaid with familiar iOS Apps instead of what was included when you bought your car - Bookmarks from Maps, iTunes Music, Contacts, Calling & Texting, Siri, and 3rd party apps that you enjoy - BOOM - on your dash. On top of all the manufacturers that include that feature now - like 30 or more - you can also get Pioneer and Alpine so you can have this in your 1970's mustang, or that classic 911. This is not some bluetooth or aux. port that you're thinking of. I haven't seen that kind of integration from any phone company. And you're right some of these things have been done over a half a decade ago - but the point was Apple pushed these standards. It didnt just include some chip or software on their phone and left it at that - it partnered with Car Companies for Car Play. Bought Companies for things like Siri and Touch ID. This funny stuff you post about Apple Delaying the NFC adoption, (Flash I dont see you as some AppleHating Troll), but you're reaching too far. Apple doesn't have to cater to you or me, they are a business to make money - they make money by providing a product that sells - and in order to sell over and over - they have to continue making good products and introduce things people find value in. Why dont you complain that Android manufacturers haven't standardized NFC payments to the point that we stopped carrying our credit cards? But yeah, Apple didnt implement - Apple fault that we're still carrying our wallet. Unlike Google, before adding NFC, Apple convinced as many banks, creditcards, merchants during the development stage before it just included an NFC chip and called it a done deal. You can build cars, but they arent gonna go no where without a highway infrastructure. That's why you see articles waiting for Apple to introduce mobile payment because history shows that Apple is the best candidate to change how we do things.

13. AlikMalix unregistered

Also add to new features that aren't just a check on a list, HomeKit and HealthKit, once again Apple reached to Hospitals, and Medical Industry to make sure that our new Health App isnt just recording data, but communicates with your trusted physician, and able to relay any critical info early than humanly possible. HomeKit - Ta-Da! standardized home automation. I'm a contractor by trade, I do a lot of lighting and upgrades to clients homes. Automation has been my latest sales push - but if you're in that industry you run into compatibility issues, changes to remote connection from company to company, and you need to access different apps to control different aspects of the house. Another example: Phillips Hue Light Kit that includes it's own management hub, your Garage Door, and your security system has their own hubs, and etc. Then 3 month later another company comes out that has all these items all under one hub, now you're thinking about that - but your current mulit-hub system already cost you too much. There's no standard - I'm holding off now to see how HomeKit can connect it all to one app, one place, one hub (hopefully)..

15. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

For the NFC thing, please don't call it trolling, follow the link below and you'll understand. You will notice that Apple tried a different approach (passbook, for whatever reason, but I assume stubbornness had a part) and then literally abandoned that route for the one they derided. This one is fairly comprehensive so it should get the point across, but there are others if you google it. It is not all Apple's fault, but they are a large reason for the delay. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2493828/mobile-payments/despite-apple--nfc-is-catching-on----just-not-for-payments-quite-yet.html The voice assistant thing is completely false. Google Now came 6 months after Siri (by Apple) and was largely (still is) better than Siri in most cases (even Munster said it is and he LOVES Apple). CarPlay is cool and all, but once again it is a closed standard unlike all its competitors and is expected to be eclipsed by Google's Android Auto as well. It can be as cool as you say, but as long as they're going it solo again, I really can't get behind it.

16. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

Look, all of this back and forth aside, I agree that Apple did great things to move the mobile industry forward. Yet their recent behavior is nothing to write home about and almost down right exploitative. They have the ability to make the iPhone everything that the competition is (at a very minor cost) and then some, but decide not to every single time. The iFans usually get hyped and show interest in getting all the bells and whistles all the way up to the release of the iPhone and then settle for what they get and start throwing out excuses in defense of Apple. At some point you would expect Apple to reward such blind loyalty but no, they instead hand out cash to investors in the tune of some hundred billion while giving the customers tech from 3 years ago.

17. AlikMalix unregistered

Sorry I mixed up when Google Now was introduced for iOS not Android, and even at that it was only 2 years.. my mistake. I just verified you're right... I also think Google Now is great at many things... But what I meant is it's not integrated to be accessed from lock screen on may phones only up to recently it was still in it's App Form on many Androids unless you root or install another launcher... Car Play is already in cars you can buy yesterday.. Google's Android Auto, um.... Anyway, this "back and forth" is fun, it's nice to have someone put more input into it than just writing it off with blind shiip insults and that's it... Enjoy the rest of your day...

20. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

That's cool lol, its been fun and you have a nice day too.

22. RebelwithoutaClue unregistered

Yes Carplay is already in certain cars. But it's not new. Things like mirrorlink, appmode, even complete Android carstereo's have been around. Only not as well known as Carplay. Apple usually isn't the first to have a certain feature or tech. They make their own mixture of it, a little bit of iOS flavor to it, so it works the same way all the other iOS apps work. Like they do with Home automation and Health. Also they have the power (and the investment) of bringing in for example banks, hospitals, home automation makers, to make sure it becomes widely accepted. Which is a lot easier when you control hardware & software. Together with brand recognition (let's face it, tv shows making fun of the Apple watch does give them the edge over others, because people will have heard of Apple and it's new watch and nobody has heard of Android Wear for instance). And that's all good, they are good at this. What bugs most other users (Android & WP) is that Apple as well as a lot of Apple users act like Apple invented it all. And they are above the rest. Of course there are Apple users who aren't this way. Like there are so many Android users who think their smartphone is superior and Android created it all. The truth is always in the middle.

23. AlikMalix unregistered

Perfectly said... Couldn't agree more...

25. RebelwithoutaClue unregistered

Ps you mentioned only Audi has an available Android car so far. But only ferrari has one model that features a carplay. Ofcourse around 30 brands will feature carplay, but they haven't made a single model yet. And those car brands do feature Android car as well. Pioneer also has just started to roll out a Carplay model, but has been using appmode for a longer time, which using Appmode Unchained with Android does give you your Android screen directly on the screen (I know so because I own one). So Apple is hardly ahead of the game in this area.

31. tedkord

Posts: 17311; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

Minor point - slide to unlock was taken from Neonode by Apple. They copied the concept.

11. teenaxta

Posts: 42; Member since: Sep 10, 2014

if you can stop hating apple without any reason, you might make some sense....apple never invented anything, smartphones existed before iphone, music players existed before ipods, GUIs existed before macs, tablets existed before ipad....apple always took an existing category and perfected it...if apple pay was easy, google could have done this years before, (plz dont talk about wallet, it sucks)....so please give apple the credit they deserve!!

27. tedkord

Posts: 17311; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

I'm going to have to day here that I think Apple Pay was the highlight of the event on September 9th, and sounds like a really good product. Not revolutionary, but it sounds like they really out some thought into it, into security and safety and rear of use.

29. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

Is that really different than any other company dude? Most companies and a few gimmicky features and a spec bump year over year. Every once in a while you may get something more. You can't expect a revolutionary product every year. Even car manufacturers do this. I'm not understanding your logic.

3. Mxyzptlk unregistered

This is a revolution. A new step into mobile payments.

26. meanestgenius

Posts: 21778; Member since: May 28, 2014

There is absolutely NO revolution in this. Other companies have been doing mobile payments before Apple decided to step into the field BlackBerry and Google come to mind as two who have been doing it before Apple. Stop being such a fanboy, Mxy.

35. stealthd unregistered

A lot of companies supported NFC payments on phones. . . and no one supports it in stores. Okay that's not true, like 2 stores support it. Now that Apple is supporting we'll actually see retailers start adopting it. That's the revolution. You can't call it a revolution when no one cares.

28. tedkord

Posts: 17311; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

It's not a revolution, it's an evolution of what others have been doing for years. But it does sound good, and was (IMO) by far the best thing they announced.

4. itsdeepak4u2000

Posts: 3718; Member since: Nov 03, 2012

Now-a-days Apple is just evolutionary not revolutionary.

6. AlikMalix unregistered

For somethings - I agree, but so is every other phone company... dont you think?

7. itsdeepak4u2000

Posts: 3718; Member since: Nov 03, 2012

Yes, but Apple talks more about iNnovation - iNnovative tech blah blah blah everytime as compared to their iProducts. Even small chinese OEMs are more innovative than Apple in today's date.

14. AlikMalix unregistered

Come on, you hear other companies about "Never Seen Before" and "Best in its Class" "Only one in the world".... Apple has revolutionized things that were around before, but is it wrong that while R&D are working on something that may change our lives again, they can improve the products already there. Sometimes those improvements are revolutionary. I mean it's been a year where's Androids version of 64bit OS? Where's Android's version of CarPlay? (Audi, that's it?) Tesla already uses iOS to control their cars - Where's Android? Where's Android version of Facetime (you know the one that you can switch to while in a voice call seamlessly without asking your buddy to download an app)? Dont get me wrong Android has it's perks - but these things aren't changing the world (wait the big screen thing, I'll give them that). Google couldnt even convince carriers to let Google Wallet function on most Androids for months or even years now? I see innovation when my iPhone pinpoints my kid's location when I ask Siri, then informs me when she leaves her class, so I know when to expect a call, or w.e. I see Health Monitoring revolutionized by the HealthKit and all those Medical Hospitals and Doctors that are now on board to make sure your doctor is informed of a critical emergency the moment it strikes - tell me that's not revolutionary? ...............That's innovation!!! Bigger Screens and More Ram are just upgrades...

19. shuaibhere

Posts: 1986; Member since: Jul 07, 2012

Whateva you said about siri can also be done in Google Now.... And it delivers even before you ask for it....

36. AlikMalix unregistered

Google Now, took nearly a year to come to market after Siri - find my friends was integrated within Siri commands in Oct. 2011. My point wasn't whether google now can or cannot do something, my point was that Apple had these things long before Google Now was available - and it was as easy as one button push on a locked screen. "Siri, where's my daughter/wife/son/John". You guys keep talking about "Android had this and that for years" but true innovation (not just spec upgrade) really comes in these little details...

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