Morgan Stanley cuts estimate of 2017 iPhone shipments, adds to the 2018 forecast

Morgan Stanley cuts estimate of 2017 iPhone shipments, adds to the 2018 forecast
Morgan Stanley's tech analyst Katy Huberty made some changes today to her official estimates for Apple. She now expects iPhone revenue for fiscal year 2017 (which ends in late September 2017) to drop 3% from earlier forecasts. During the second half of this current fiscal year, consumers will most likely hold off on purchasing the iPhone until the new models are unveiled. Huberty also cut her Fiscal Year 2017 iPhone shipments by 7%, while hiking the average selling price by 4% thanks to higher pricing for the Apple iPhone 7 Plus.

For the just completed December quarter, Huberty sees Apple shipping 75 million iPhone units, down from her previous forecast of 79 million. For the March quarter, the analyst cut her forecast also by 4 million handsets to 51 million units from 55 million. Things will start popping with the next gen iPhone models that should be unveiled during Apple's fiscal fourth quarter of 2017. We expect to see the Apple iPhone 7s, Apple iPhone 7s Plus and the premium Apple iPhone 8 (code named "Ferrari") released at the time. The latter could have an edge-to-edge AMOLED display with Touch ID embedded under the glass. This model might feature rapid charging and wireless charging.

For fiscal year 2018 (which runs from October 2017 through September 2018), iPhone shipments will rise 20% year-over-year according to Huberty. Revenue from the device will increase 6% on an annual basis. The ASP will increase by 6% from fiscal year 2017, and 253 million units are expected to be shipped.

The analyst still has Apple rated overweight with a target of $148, which would be a 23% rise from today's close of $120.

source: SeekingAlpha

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10 Comments

1. darkkjedii

Posts: 31053; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

The new iPhone is gonna sell like crazy, and of course it'll be a great phone. I just hope Apple takes it to the next level, and makes it worthy of the price hike, that I'm sure will come along with it. My plan is a Note 8, and iPhone 8, just give the iPhone picture in picture, slide over, split screen, and Pencil support.

2. sgodsell

Posts: 7368; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

That's what the Notes have been doing for years. Not to mention VR as well. Things that Apple themselves have never supported on their iPhones.

6. Leo_MC

Posts: 7432; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

I really hope Apple doesn't waste time and space, putting VR stuff inside a phone that could have other valuable stuff (like better battery, better haptic engine etc). You're using VR at home so get a helm, VR all you want and leave my phone brand alone.

7. joey_sfb

Posts: 6794; Member since: Mar 29, 2012

Apple has no plan for VR. Even AR is still unlikely without drastic changes to be made on iOS. Apple need to hard code iOS to support different screen resolutions, a basic system task that is made scalable in Android. So no worries. If they do it, you will be hearing it all over the media.

8. Leo_MC

Posts: 7432; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

3 years ago there was an app (I can't remember the name), both on iOS and Android, that was similar to what AR is today (something like City Lens from Nokia); I don't think there's a big problem for Apple to implement it, but who knows.

4. Klinton

Posts: 1409; Member since: Oct 24, 2016

Well you want peace. BTW me too. I think you again want to be nice, but not reasonable. The new iPhone will be the 4 years obsolete iPhone7S, and if Apple don't bring back the audio jack, how could iPhone sell like crazy? Well, you may be refer to the rumored mysterious third iPhone.(if we could believe stock pumping propaganda rumors, at all) Even there is such phone, it will be in limited numbers, and as we know Apple, it will be at huge price(no matter that the 'new tech' there will not compare to Samsung's flag-ship phones. You know that. You a wealthy guy, and you will buy this Apple's magic, but it will not change the big picture. Agree???

5. Leo_MC

Posts: 7432; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

I never cared about how much sales a device has and what price as long as it's a good device (I would have bought the Porsche Design BB, if it came out earlier than it did).

9. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Why waste money on a phone, you know isn't going to have what you want?

3. ibend

Posts: 6747; Member since: Sep 30, 2014

still hoping iPhone8 this year? lol...

10. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

The 2018 iPhone, that everyone is trying ot predict will be all that and then some, isn't going to have anything new. It's going to have their version of what we've had on Android for at least 2~3 years. I see what Apple is doing. Newer fancier features especially in hardware tend to be expensive when they first come out. Even though it would only drive the cost of the iPhone to make up about $60, this is $60 less dollars Apple can pocket. Considering $60 x 150M potential sales, its a lot of money. SO Apple waits to use it 2~3 years later, when its costs have been driven down because of all the other OEM's using the hardware features. Thus Apple can get them cheaper, and keep the iPhone manufacturer cost low or where they want it for more profits. Because Apple doesn't want to have to sell 300M phones, to make the same kind of money from selling only $150M. Apple could simply make the iPhone be as good as the Galaxy S, which would cost them $280 to make and they could increase the cost of the phone $50 on retail and people would still buy it and Apple would sell even more phone. But they are too stupid and too lazy and too arrogant. The present iPhone 7, isn't even as good as the Galaxy S6. The Galaxy S6 has a better set of camera, takes better low light pics, has better dynamic range and has better battery-life. Has a better design and certainly a better feature set. This isn't even moving up to the S6 Edge or S6 Edge+. The iPhone 7 barely even matches the Galaxy S5. So that means Apple is 3 years behind Samsung. Why? Because they are tryign to do what the video game industry did in the 80's and 90's. Try to milk the platform by doing meager pointless tiny upgrades. When the first Nintendo appeared, it was 8Bit, yet PC's were already 32/64Bit. So that means they could have made a console with similar power. But they started at the very bottom with 8, then doubled to 16, 32, 64 and then 128 over a span for a decade, which they could have started at 64bit back then and we would have something 10 times as powerful now. Apple and all their frivolous lawsuits trying to slow everyone else down, all their money and they can;t even make an updated phone or tablet? Apple is full of crap and they no longer have mu support. For a company I spent a total of nearly 15 years buying their products, Apple sucks and is why they are goign to end up just like Blackberry and Nokia and Microsoft.

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