Lagging Apple Watch demand leads KGI to slash shipping estimates in half

Lagging Apple Watch demand leads KGI to slash shipping estimates in half
KGI Securities, home to Apple-connected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, says that the Apple Watch has not been in as much demand as it originally thought it would be. This has led the securities house to slash its estimate of Apple Watch shipments for the year by as much as 50%. Previously, KGI told clients to expect Apple to ship between 20 million and 30 million smartwatches for the year. Now, KGI is telling clients to expect Apple to ship less than 15 million units of the Apple Watch for 2015.

The research note sent out by KGI also said that Apple's supply of the Taptic Engine used on its watch should start picking up later this month. The part is used to create a tapping feeling on the wrist of an Apple Watch user as a reminder or an alert. A vibration motor is used to move a small rod back and forth to create the tapping sensation. The Taptic Engine is also used to send the user's "heartbeat" to others wearing the timepiece. Problems with the vibration motor caused a bottleneck in the supply chain which led to a production shortfall for the Apple Watch.

But KGI notes that shipping dates for the Apple Watch have dropped back to June, and since this can't be pinned yet on increased production of the Taptic Engine (remember, that won't take place for another week or so), the obvious conclusion is that demand for the Apple Watch has been sliding. Thus, the firm has cut its shipping estimate for the product.

The securities firm has also discovered that 80% of the Apple Watch orders have been for the larger 42mm model. In the note it disseminated to its clients, KGI says that it assumes that men are ordering the larger variant of the intelligent watch while women are purchasing the 38mm model. While it is a generalization, the numbers can be used to determine that you are much more likely to find the device on the wrist of a man than on the wrist of a woman.

source: 9to5Mac via GSMArena

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85 Comments

62. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Also considering the Gold Edition. Based on its size and weight, the Apple Watch Edition, has roughly maybe $100 worth of real gold in it. Real pure 100% gold is rated at 24 KARAT. The Apple Watch Edition is 18 KARAT Gold. That means it is mixed with other metals and has less gold. ! Ounce of 24K Gold is valued at about $1200. Question, the Apple Watch srely contains less than an ounce of Godl because its only 18K, so how are they charging $10,000 for it? For $10,000 I can buy a Rolex that not only has 24K gold, it is full of diamonds too. Look at this -http://www.rolex.com/watches/baselworld-2015/new-rolex-cellini-time/m50609rbr-0007.html That is what you get for $10,000. compare how that Rolex looks to the Apple Watch Edition. Anyone who bought that, even if they are a multi-millionaire is stupid and should have their money taken away from them for life. Where you at Darkkjedi. Mr as soon as its available I'm going to go buy it? Why is it, Apple didn't put the heart rate monitor capabilities right into the phone like Samsung did? Apple is funny. Without the iPhone, Apple would nearly go out of business. The mac is less than 20% of their income and its falling and without the iPhone they would surely die. Microsoft should never have saved their @$$. And no I am not talking about the money.

73. greathero1

Posts: 584; Member since: Jun 13, 2008

Somebody please change this guys diaper and get him a bottle. This crying everyday is just lame.

76. Ordinary

Posts: 2454; Member since: Apr 23, 2015

I work in jewelry store, this guy is right I can tell you that. There is a big difference in karats, weight, pureness in terms od price. http://goldprice.org/gold-price-per-gram.html

93. ecmedic4

Posts: 520; Member since: May 02, 2013

Amen! No one is forcing him to buy or even use Apple products, yet he sits in front of his computer daily on this website for the sole purpose of hating on Apple and their products. Rarely do I see him comment without throwing in a jab at Apple. Its truly pathetic IMO. There are many things in life I don't like, but I don't sit and whine and complain about it every single day. Maybe the more he bashes on Apple, the bigger the paycheck he will get from Samsung, since Samsung is the other company he talks about all the time also and basically implies they are the best thing since sliced bread. Guy has a lot of growing up to do.

95. darkkjedii

Posts: 31800; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Man I thought I was the only one who noticed that. +1 to you, and greathero1

96. darkkjedii

Posts: 31800; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Darkkjedii wishes you go away, and stop being a bothersome turd. Log off, and get laid. You could you some.

53. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Before I bash people like Darkkjedi, le me be honest and upfront. All these latest wearable's are nothing more than junk with very few exception. if you are ito fitness and you own something simple like a FitBit then that is fine. But all these smart watches are useless redundant pieces of crap. I bought the original gear with my Note 3. I bought it because I am simply a tech nut, not because I needed I. After a week of usage, it basically was a fairly useless piece of crap. But at least when it ran Android it was a bit more usable. Then Samsung upgraded it to Tizen and since many of the apps I had weren't redone for Tizen, it made it even more useless. Now I have a Gear S. Its one an only useful benefit is, when I o go ride my bike, I don't have to carry a phone, which I hated doing because in warm weather I hated being force to ride with clothing that has pockets. It is nice t not miss a call or message and have a cyclometer without paying extra money. For 299.99 and the fact it si 100% fully independent of needing a phone, it was a more worthwhile buy. What I don't understand about Apple is, they had a full 2 years to see what others were doing with wearable tech. I don't understand how with 2 years of work, they coudnt release something better than what other had, especially at 349. For $350 you can get a Galaxy S5 brand new and it will have most of those features or a Gear S, which at least has its own Wifi, its own GPS and its own 3 connection and it costs less. You have to be a complete and uttered moron to buy the Apple Watch when it offers nothing but a nice look. At 349 and no features and the few it has all require you to be attached to your phone, which is exactly what the Gear was criticized for and yet the Apple Watch wasn't, just shows how ignorant every one is when it comes to Apple. Apple knows they can sell people nearly anything and they will buy it. The Apple Watch has a fair learning curve compared to the Gear options, nd at its price, for what it offers it has only 2 unique features. You can send a message that forces the device to vibrate and you can draw something unique. LAME!!! Is that actually worth $349? Yes I will bash Apple o this one and I based Samsung too over the original gear. Because Sammy had a device that looks like the Gear which had a full working phone. For them to release a device with less was stupid, and I was stupid to buy it. But I only paid 299 and I sold it for $275, so I suffered a very small loss other than I wasted time. Apple should be ashamed. However, as long as ignorant people keep buying their limited overpriced BS, they have no good reason to do better.

72. tedkord

Posts: 17526; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

Why bash anyone for buying what he likes?

78. gaming64 unregistered

My thoughts exactly, dude.

89. BobbyDigital

Posts: 2126; Member since: May 29, 2014

You bash Android users for buying Android devices all of the time. Hypocrite much?

90. ecmedic4

Posts: 520; Member since: May 02, 2013

It seems to me that lots of ppl on here bash others for buy Apple products. I been saying what you just said for a long time. If a person is happy with what they bought and it does what they need it to then what is the problem? Everyone has different preferences, and no single product is perfect for everyone. I like Apple products, so what, its my money to spend on what I like. I don't tell others they are losers or bash them or their choice of product, kinda like what TechieXP does in just about every comment he makes. Lot of immature ppl on this site, and that goes for fans on all sides. Buy what you like and let others do the same without being bashed for it.

44. tedkord

Posts: 17526; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

This makes sense. Apple hasn't made any public statements about the sales numbers, which they would have done of they were outstanding.

71. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Which is what the idiots usua;y say about Samsung. Now it coming back full circle...YET AGAIN!! Stupid sheep. (Not you...THEM!!!)

35. jsjammu

Posts: 169; Member since: Nov 13, 2014

How would iSheep sleep at night knowing Krapple has a product that they haven't bought yet? OMG.

26. Scott93274

Posts: 6044; Member since: Aug 06, 2013

This was predictable. see comment 16 in the link below from early March. http://www.phonearena.com/news/Strategy-Analytics-forecasts-Apple-Watch-sales-of-15-million-for-2015_id66950 I will admit that they are doing better than I would have thought, but it still doesn't make my statement any less true.

25. Crispin_Gatieza

Posts: 3200; Member since: Jan 23, 2014

Yesterday an "analyst" slashed BlackBerry sales without hard numbers and today another "analyst" does the same with the Apple Watch. Does the term "stock manipulation" mean anything to anyone here?

20. BobbyBuster

Posts: 854; Member since: Jan 13, 2015

A flop by Apple's standard, yet it sells far more than all the Android W combined.

23. RebelwithoutaClue unregistered

True, but you also have to consider the loyalty of Apple fans. Also media coverage of anything that Apple does, so there marketing is way better. Resulting in average Joe knows about the Apple watch but doesn't know there are already others out there on the market.

24. BobbyBuster

Posts: 854; Member since: Jan 13, 2015

Apple loyalists aren't loyal without reasons. Apple has been providing excellent support for many years to their "former" customers. The same cannot be said for the Android OEMs. How lacking this first AppleWatch might appear, Apple will do it right with updates. That's what the buyers think.

27. Scott93274

Posts: 6044; Member since: Aug 06, 2013

But didn't Samsung rank higher in customer satisfaction than Apple this past year? I don't even like Samsung phones so you can't claim that I'm a fan boy or anything along those lines.

33. BobbyBuster

Posts: 854; Member since: Jan 13, 2015

The statistics are simply too swallow. They only tell how many, but not how much. It wouldn't be that hard to "persuade" satisfied Sammy customer to purchase other brands (with design/functionality/price) while it's a hard nut to crack for Apple's. And iPhones aren't that expensive after all considering the high resale value.

39. tedkord

Posts: 17526; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

You just described sheep vs non sheep. Congratulations

52. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

Lol you nailed it a lot more concisely than my post. Bravo!

57. tedkord

Posts: 17526; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling Apple users sheep. Most aren't. But anyone who will buy a product simply based on brand is a sheep. My GS3 was an awesome phone, but I still didn't buy the GS4 because I felt Samsung phoned it in on that one. In fact, nothing impressed me until the Note 4.

40. Scott93274

Posts: 6044; Member since: Aug 06, 2013

Can you please reference the source in which you came to the conclusion that the statistics were too shallow? As far as I know, the parameters of the study and the number of people who were involved were not made public, so I feel as though your conclusion is based off of assumptions. iOS8 has had many, many issues sense its release, not to say that Android hasn't had its share of issues, but it's a fairly realistic scenario that those who own Apple iPhones voiced frustration with OS bugs that has impacted their daily usage, for example, I have had several people come to me at work asking for assistance because they cannot get their iPhone to connect to the company's public WiFi. A simple Google search will reveal that it's a not too uncommon issue with recent releases of iOS. Also, people like Dark Jedi I know are a little upset because the Apple Watch (Something that built up a lot of anticipation) is useless if you have tattoo sleeves. Granted, this issue came long after the report I was referencing, but it's simply another example of a legitimate reason why consumers might be displeased with something Apple has done.

43. tedkord

Posts: 17526; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

His conclusion is based on the results and a religious like zealotry, mixed liberally with extreme jealousy.

88. ecmedic4

Posts: 520; Member since: May 02, 2013

To be fair, I would imagine any heart rate sensor would have trouble reading through tattoo ink. Also I don't imagine Apple thought about that being an issue when they made the watch, nor would i expect any tech company to think about it. I work as a medic on an ambulance, i use heart rate sensors/oxygen sensors almost daily, and lots of things can cause inaccurate readings. We use finger sensors and nail polish causes it to not read at all, even clear polish causes problems, poor circulation, cold fingers, causes inaccuracy. The Apple watch and the finger sensors we use work in the same way, by using an LED light to penetrate the skin to get a reading. Heck even dirty fingers will cause inaccurate readings for us, so its no surprise that tattoos are causing problems for the Apple watch, and would for do the same on other products using that type of sensor.

92. 99nights

Posts: 1152; Member since: Mar 10, 2015

Nope owned 2 smart watches, wore 4 different ones including the apple watch. They all work for heartbeat sensor (at least the software does) and applewatch won't even pick me up...

50. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

High resale is a product of the consumer and not the manufacturer so basing pricing on that is frankly stupid since all you sheep would have to do to get a cheaper second hand iPhone is to not blindly buy every product they make and the resale will drop to normal levels and you would be able to get a second hand iPhone 6 for $350 by now.

69. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

There resale value isn't higher than any other phone in its class. I just sold my Note 4. I paid 299.99 + Tax for it. It retails for 699.99 to start at VZW. I sold it $200 less than retail price. You need to wake up. Any phone you can buy without a contract that is a flagship, sells for a fair value. iPhones don't have a higher resale value on average vs a similar phone. Now if you want to compare iPhone to medium or low end phones then you're stupid to begin with. Every phone I have ever sold I sold them for more than 50% what they cost on retail. EVERY SONGLE ONE and I sell on average 2 phones per year. now have an S6 Edge in Gold/Plat. It costed me $939 with tax for the 128GB version. When the Note 5 comes out I will sell this and get that. I guarantee I will get $600 minimum for it as long as its in mint condition.

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