Can BlackBerry 10 succeed as an all-in-one platform?

This is the first we've heard from Heins about this sort of plan for BlackBerry 10. Until now, it seemed as though the platform would stay specifically on smartphones and tablets, but with the competition looking to unify device categories, it seems RIM has decided it needs to move into traditional desktops. Each company is taking a separate path to unification of course. 

Both Microsoft and Apple are trying to merge proprietary platforms in Windows Phone and Windows 8, and iOS and MacOS respectively. Canonical is both attempting to merge Ubuntu with its Linux cousin Android, and also modify Ubuntu itself to run on mobile devices. The extra hurdle for RIM will be that BlackBerry doesn't have a desktop counterpart, and will have to either try pushing QNX or rely heavily on virtualization. 

If RIM wants to be able to control both ends of the platform, virtualization is not a good option, and pushing QNX as a desktop platform is going to be a much more difficult process than moving the other way. Microsoft and Canonical (to a certain extent) are established in the desktop world, and are trying to push into mobile. This is far easier, because there is more turnover in mobile devices, and because the market is still relatively new. 

Mobile users get new smartphones every two years, on average, while desktops, especially those in enterprise, are updated with much less frequency, and can be a cycle as long as 5 to 7 years. RIM can certainly make a comeback in the mobile space, because BlackBerry has the name recognition, and because of that fast turnover rate. But, BlackBerry doesn't have that same recognition in the desktop space, and that's a segment that is still dominated by Microsoft. 

Because the mobile space is relatively new, and consumers are somewhat used to volatility in platform popularity, it is somewhat easier for a platform to unseat the leader in popularity, if not actual market share. It's already gone from Symbian to BlackBerry to iOS to Android. There's no reason Windows Phone or BlackBerry couldn't rise to unseat Android someday. But, the desktop market is far more static, so unseating Microsoft is an almost impossible task (just ask Apple and Canonical). 

It's great to hear Heins with so much optimism about BlackBerry, and finally using some real examples to talk up the platform. BlackBerry Hub sounds like a combination of the Android notification tray with the Windows Phone People Hub, and could be a really nice feature. It's far better to hear about that than marketing buzz speak. And, we have to agree with Heins that in three to five years, we likely won't be carrying laptops. The idea of just having a mobile device and a dock sounds like one that will continue to gain steam. But, until we see more of the desktop side of things, we're just not sure that BlackBerry will be a major player in that.

source: New York Times