Apple could sell as many as 80 million iPhone 7 units to upgraders from older models


For every five analysts who spell doom on Apple for coming up with a non-groundbreaking iPhone in a year of sliding sales, there's the one believer that a) thinks everything will be fine and b) has the arguments to back his theory. This time, it's Cowen and Company analyst Timothy Arcuri re-assuring investors about the growing numbers of iPhone users due for an upgrade this year.

According to his report, around a third of iPhone owners rock two generations-old or senior handsets presently, and this contingent of potential upgraders will expand with 43% over the next four to five quarters. These are a potential 60 to 70 million sales of newer models like the iPhone 6s and the upcoming iPhone 7.

Arcuri believes that growth in Apple's iPhone install base will be driven entirely by users of aging models looking to upgrade. While he does see a clear-cut path for strong iPhone 7 sales, the analyst does acknowledge that a new form factor or significant technological changes (such as an OLED display) would make for a more attractive device.

The next iPhone is largely expected to represent an incremental upgrade without design changes to distinguish it from the older model. Reportedly, major design and technological upgrades are being primed for 2017.

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iPhone 7
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  • Camera 12 MP / 7 MP front
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  • Battery 1960 mAh(14h 3G talk time)
iPhone 7 Plus
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62 Comments

1. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

I can see average consumers with a 5s or older upgrading this year. The major question is if 6 and 6s owners will hold out for the 2017 phone. I just can't see a large portion of them upgrading to a phone that is the same for the most part. People who have to be on the cutting edge will regardless. At best, I see sales being flat this year.

4. sgodsell

Posts: 7374; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Especially when they are not offering anything new that is ground breaking. Except an updated processor and removal of the headphone jack. Also if the rumors are true of a dual camera iPhone 7 pro with 3 gb of ram. Then why couldn't Apple just add that to their iPhone 7+ instead. It's Apple once again with their cash grab again and again.

18. Kumar123 unregistered

I bet most 6/6s owner wouldn't upgrade. Most 5/5s owner definitely would. From 5s to 6ss/7 would be pretty good upgrade. I only wish for a optical zoom capable camera.

21. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

Yea but will they but it from Apple or second hand. Apple has done every trick in the book other than innovate to get people to upgrade and a large amount still haven't. Those users are likely not going to be in the cutting edge and likely don't care. Also, the previous model of contacts us now dead and now there is no confusion as to the actual price of the phone unlike before. This year has already been going downhill for Apple and this is the same BS they said last year when sales didn't hit the mark either.

26. htcisthebest

Posts: 436; Member since: Nov 15, 2011

"People who have to be on the cutting edge" could potentially upgrade to the Galaxy Note 7 or wait for the Galaxy S8 or upgrade to other high end Android phones between now and September. So IMO it would be premature to assume that most 5/5s owners would upgrade to iPhone 7.

29. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Statistics prove that even in cases where the iPhone isn't particularly interesting, the rate of transitioning between the two platforms is rather low. In fact, the largest migration since 2012 happened in Q1 of last year, and in was 5% in favor of the iPhone. iOS users are extremely loyal to the platform.

34. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

They aren't loyal. They are simply forced to stay. If you leave iOS, you can't bring your crap over to Android. You can bring the music as Android will play Apple's formats, but you can't bring the videos or exclusive apps. Only server-side apps are the same and many games. But those apps exclusive to IOS and not on Android will make many stay because they have no choice. You think everythign is about being loyal. With Android you never have to be loyal to forced to stay with any brand. If one OEM doesn't make the phone you want, you can take 100% of everything to another brand and pickup right where you left off. This is a benefit users of Android and Windows that Mac OS and iOS users simply dont have. In other words, we have choice and you don't. You can call it loyalty. But the fact is, you have no choice. I speak from fact. I keep an iPad simply because I have over 100 iOS application that includes games and business apps hat I like to use that are either not available on Android, or have limitation on Android and thus I keep an iOS device. If I could have all of them 100% on Android, I'd never need to own an IOS device. So please claim I have an iOS device from some blind loyalty factor you're trying to claim. Most of Apple's customers are not loyal, they are just stupid and clueless like you are.

42. ctdog4748

Posts: 797; Member since: Mar 05, 2016

"I speak from fact. I keep an iPad simply because I have over 100 iOS application that includes games and business apps hat I like to use that are either not available on Android, or have limitation on Android and thus I keep an iOS device. If I could have all of them 100% on Android, I'd never need to own an IOS device." See, you own an iOS device because they are BETTER than Android. You yourself just admitted you can't get the apps you need on Android, or if you can they are of dubious quality. Ergo, iOS is better. For heavens sake man, just admit it!!

46. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

How is better equal to exclusivity. You're stupid. Some people can work with some limitations, after all they buy iPhones. Whether that is better is subjective. I never said apps I need that are exclusive to IOS or more limited on Amdroid. Moot apps on android offer more features that their iOS counterparts. Another known fact. But you know this...right?

51. ctdog4748

Posts: 797; Member since: Mar 05, 2016

Dude I quoted what YOU WROTE. So yeah, you did say that. Me thinks you'd better relax a bit, you're becoming somewhat unhinged. Peace!

35. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

So this means it wil be the same every year. last I check, PA announced that Android gained more marketshare, and it was Apple and Microsoft that lost people. http://pocketnow.com/2016/05/12/android-ios-windows-q1-global-smartphone-market-share http://www.businessinsider.com/google-android-growing-market-share-at-expense-of-apple-ios-in-q1-kantar-smartphones-2016-5 Now please try to change those facts. Now I just debunked your claim. The report says Apple fell from 26% to 21% Year Over Year. They lost 5% of their customers. Was it the biggest? No. It also wasnt in favor of Apple liek you claimed...LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

37. engineer-1701d unregistered

true thats why apple pulled the idea of making itunes for android because that would give all the people that want to leave the ability to still have all there songs and vids. without apple phone

53. AlikMalix unregistered

When did Apple announce that they were making iTunes for android?

27. Well-Manicured-Man

Posts: 688; Member since: Jun 16, 2015

I can confirm. I use an iPhone 6 and I decided to wait for next year even though I'd like to profit from the better camera that the iPhone 7 will most probably feature. However, I really want to have the new screen from next year and a big design update as I think that iPhone6 / 6s design is the worst of iPhone history.

36. engineer-1701d unregistered

i really dont think they will see the numbers they want with this newer phone its the same old old old old style and apple users are fine using old stuff, i think next year you will see real big numbers if they change the design

54. AlikMalix unregistered

Explain how "Apple users are fine using old stuff"!!!

2. sgodsell

Posts: 7374; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Yes, let's just tell everyone that Apple could sell 80 million iPhone 7's. We don't want our stock to fall any more

24. cnour

Posts: 2305; Member since: Sep 11, 2014

Your very smart

3. Barney_stinson

Posts: 672; Member since: May 30, 2016

Why not NOTE 7 !! Why US have a army of apple believers!! I mean come on!!

6. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

Actually, these are speculated world sales, not just the US.

7. darkkjedii

Posts: 31069; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Why not spend your money on what the hell you want to spend it on? I mean come on.

8. newbey123

Posts: 701; Member since: Mar 19, 2012

Yeah, I have never understood why people care what others buy!

10. Ruturaj

Posts: 1484; Member since: Oct 16, 2014

I don't encourage these things. But I can give you probable reason, if sells of note are increased then we can see more R&D on next device (so not bigger S series phone) and if sells fall too low one day they might stop producing note. Second is extreme case though.

11. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

It's simple. Some individuals place their fragile egos into inanimate objects. These individuals usually lack the comprehension skills necessary to acknowledge some people don't see the world the same way they do. People please stop staking your pride on a mobile OS! It is pathetic to do so!

19. darkkjedii

Posts: 31069; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Well said yo!

48. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

OMG THE IRONY!!!!!

38. engineer-1701d unregistered

its mostly bothers people because your not being told the full truth only what they want to tell you, and what you need so that you cant find a reason not to have it, apple plays the mind game the best. but for the last 2 years people are starting to open there eyes and look for something else. i mean i have a samsung s7 i want the sony x perf but with no finger scanner i wont buy. just like the htc no amoled screen or boom sound i dont want it.

55. AlikMalix unregistered

No engineer 1701d, this bs about "people opening their eyes" is stupid. Android devices are finally getting good enough and simple enough to use by everyone - that's it! That's as simple as that! People buy pretty things if they can afford them - guess what android devices (specifically Samsung) finally looks "pretty" to buy. Yes, you and I buy based on nearly full knowledge of the platforms were interested in, we combine that with our needs and how each device delivers that best for us. The rest of the world buys what looks nice combined with how well it works for them based on previous experience. Samsung is a lot of phones, Apple is a few - public is unbiased mostly and choose randomly - statistically based on how many manufacturers use android, vs how many built with iOS - IPhone is kicking ass.

59. ColinW

Posts: 412; Member since: Jun 04, 2014

People buy iPhone 6 series phones and they sure are not pretty and they have been out for nearly 3 generations! People who bought these iPhones can afford to buy any Android phones which are mostly superior and just as easy to use as iPhones. They buy iPhones mainly for either the Apple name, they are used to IOS or locked into IOS with lots off app purchase or own other Apple products and the phone integrates well with those. iPhones are hardly kicking ass as people are moving over to Android and it looks like that trend will continue for the next year.

57. deviceguy2016

Posts: 826; Member since: Jun 16, 2016

I agree, but the design of the 6 plus and 6S plus is fine but, Apple does need to internally change such as the 256 memory and, the ram CPU speed to at least 4 gb ram and ditch the slow 2 ram currently and MOST of all the UI background and the settings been the same since day one!! It's mostly the internal look that needs a HUGE change!! I like the new rumor in blue 7 pro 256 gb I'm on it if pans out, but now thinking it's going to take a internal change to me to buy it!! Heck the Samsung note 7 is just weeks away and I'm surely getting that my t mobile jump is due so if Apple doesn't change internally, I'm done with Apple once and for all, but that being said won't mean in say 2017-18 if they do change internally I'll sure buy again,, I'm not a Apple hater just like to see a change not just a bigger plus model that's been the same the last two years now hopefully not three??? Apple has the money and the tech, so Tim Cook needs to do some serious re designing, I use both iOS and OS and I buy what changes for the best and quality NOT LOOKS!! like when you buy a truck or car, not just looks it's under the hood and drive train too.. I wouldn't buy a bmw or Audi or Mercedes if it had a bad drive train but look great, my Audi 6 I love it, not to fancy but has a great drive train..

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