Analyst thinks BlackBerry 10 will be "dead on arrival"

Analyst thinks BlackBerry 10 will be
It's been something of a rollercoaster for BlackBerry fans recently, although admittedly, the rollercoaster has been mostly downswings. So, it shouldn't really be a surprise that an analyst is now saying that BlackBerry 10 will be "dead on arrival", nor should it surprise that not everyone agrees.

The doomsaying is coming from a Pacific Crest analyst, James Faucette, who said, “We expect the new OS to be met with a lukewarm response at best and ultimately likely to fail" adding that "BB10 is likely to be DOA." Faucette thinks that an unfamiliar user interface, a lack of compatible technology, and few software applications will lead to slow adoption by users. Although, that last point is in direct conflict with other analyst predictions.

Paradigm Capital is even putting the price target at $14, citing RIM's success in drawing developers to the BB10 ecosystem as "a key catalyst for success." Paradigm Capital and two other analyst companies: Cormark Securities, and Scotia Capital all have RIM stock as a "buy".  Apparently none of the concerns of Pacific Crest look too serious to these analysts. 

From what we've seen of BlackBerry 10, we can see the logic on both sides. Yes, BB10 will have a new user interface, but it's not exactly "unfamiliar". Anyone who has seen Android, iOS, or Windows Phone will find familiar things in BB10, since the platform seems to draw inspiration from each of the three main competitors. We're not exactly sure what to make of the idea of a lack of compatible technology. It's not like the current range of BlackBerry devices has a big accessory ecosystem like the iPhone, and the lack of such accessories certainly hasn't been a hindrance to the ascension of Android. 

The app ecosystem is the real key. At BlackBerry Jam Americas it did seem as though RIM has gotten support from a number of key developers, but we could say the same about Windows Phone, which has yet to really make a move in the US, but has found a bit of traction in Europe. BlackBerry does have a bit more of a user-base to draw from with its enterprise users, and international users, but many have been moving to either Android or iOS, so it's hard to say how many of those users will still be there when BB10 is finally launched. 

Given the competition in the smartphone world, and the trouble that even big names like Microsoft have in unseating the juggernaut that is Android, or the solid second-place iOS, it's not hard to imagine BB10 being a flop when it eventually does arrive. RIM's troubles in pushing out BB10 has led to shares of the company dropping over 10 dollars in the last year, from a high of $19 a share to just $8.24 today. Assuming the stock continues to slide in the lead-up to the BlackBerry 10 release, it would be quite an impressive feat to get up to Paradigm Capital's target of $14.

source: Bloomberg

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41 Comments

1. No_Nonsense unregistered

Don't these analysts have something better to do? Even astrologers are better than these clowns.

8. Nadr1212

Posts: 741; Member since: Sep 22, 2012

Well BB, where's that new awesome phone with 2 gigs of ram at that PA said u'd announce like 2 months ago?!! LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

9. No_Nonsense unregistered

You know BB10 phones are coming next year, don't you?

23. PhenomFaz

Posts: 1236; Member since: Sep 26, 2012

BB is just being very late to the party...a launch before the holidays would've really given them a chance to rack up some serious coin....and its always leaks and dates...dont overdo it BB ....it might just end up being all fizzle

25. bluexperia

Posts: 41; Member since: Sep 29, 2012

nothing but agree... new os seems promising but late launch would make them like a baby learn to walk again...

11. iWorld

Posts: 85; Member since: Jul 05, 2012

Is it BlackBerry 10 will be dead "on arrival"

16. anywherehome

Posts: 971; Member since: Dec 13, 2011

if you work with shares you need to know this.....time to switch to Android, dear RIM you can make it different, you have a chance to show your creativity

2. Birds

Posts: 1172; Member since: Nov 21, 2011

I won't believe it till I see it.

3. thatguyyouknow

Posts: 1; Member since: Nov 07, 2012

NO s**t....

4. Droid_X_Doug

Posts: 5993; Member since: Dec 22, 2010

Well, RIM will have the better part of 2013 to try to build sales from near zero after missing out on the 2012 holiday sales....

5. xtroid2k

Posts: 601; Member since: Jan 11, 2010

Last stand. Can RIM survive. Only time will tell.

10. Nadr1212

Posts: 741; Member since: Sep 22, 2012

Is that really a Question that needs to be asked right now, I mean LOOK at BB, RIM dude!!!! It's a freakin mess!

19. TheMan

Posts: 494; Member since: Sep 21, 2012

A mess for sure, but I was just reading a 2008 article about Motorola, which at the time at an 8.5% market share after falling from 20%. It was declared "a mess" too. Point is, it's possible to turn around a company, even RIM. That said, I confess that I've always thought BB was terribly overrated during the crackberry era. I still think it'll take a change from the outside to bring it back.

6. Mxyzptlk unregistered

It doesn't take an analyst to come up with something so obvious.

7. rusticguy

Posts: 2828; Member since: Aug 11, 2012

yea who would have predicetd that IPAD share would be down to 50% :D

17. anywherehome

Posts: 971; Member since: Dec 13, 2011

I did a year ago.....and last year I DID know that Android would have at least 60 % next year 2013 ;) but it is and was obvious too

12. reader

Posts: 1; Member since: Nov 07, 2012

I wonder why analysts always have negative "prediction" or comment on non-US brands while having a good news always for apple. any apple s**t always have good news. they even defend apple's shortcoming. and the best part is: blogs publish them all the time.

13. Johnnokia

Posts: 1158; Member since: May 27, 2012

RIM, Motorola and Nokia gave a huge favor in building this great phone's world. I wish them always the best luck, even I have never had Blackberry in my life.But, RIM has to be survived.

14. No_Nonsense unregistered

Of all the phones in the market my preference would be Nokia/BB/Jolla>Nexus>iPhone>other Androids>Other WP

29. Darkerm

Posts: 322; Member since: Jan 31, 2012

Yeah, I want everyone to Survive. If we got more mobile OS, we will have more competition and more quality Apps, Games, and devices ^_^

15. slaggyb

Posts: 218; Member since: Oct 19, 2011

Who the hell is James Faucette??

18. bloodline

Posts: 706; Member since: Dec 01, 2011

In before apple sues

20. lolwoot

Posts: 27; Member since: Jun 01, 2011

AHAAH!!!! DOA you say? honestly, BB 10 already Dead Before Announced more like it >:)

21. Doakie

Posts: 2478; Member since: May 06, 2009

Yeah this is going to be pretty humiliating. Rim should have just taken AOSP and built atop it with a BlackBerry 10-like skin. They would have been able to draw from the momentum of Android, and combined their hardware expertise with custom BlackBerry exclusive apps and they could have held on. Same thing with Nokia, they should have taken AOSP and skinned it with a Symbian style skin. Their existing user base would have stuck it out and with the Android ecosystem backing them up they wouldn't have had any issues with shortage of apps... Looks like the people who lead companies are idiots.

39. ShibeshMehrotra

Posts: 9; Member since: Apr 03, 2012

Oh, so by your logic, even Apple should just take the iPhone and a put an iOS-skinned version of Android on it. "Looks like the people who lead companies are idiots." Looks like we've got ourselves a winner here.

24. speckledapple

Posts: 902; Member since: Sep 29, 2011

I care not for analysts but I do hope that BB10 provides a significant boost to the blackberry ecosystem. I would like an environment where four major mobile OS systems are competing with each other on price, features, and most importantly quality. Just imaginging Android, iOS, Windows Phone, and BB10, awesome

35. pikapowerize

Posts: 1869; Member since: May 03, 2012

yeah!!! foursome! thats awesome!

26. Tsepz_GP

Posts: 1176; Member since: Apr 12, 2012

IMO, RIM has a better chance than Nokia and the BB10 OS has a better chance than WP, its all a matter of great timing though. If WP doesnt manage to rack up some market share in the holiday season with the WP8 devices then RIM will have a great chance as WP still wont be as well recognised. Lets wait and see :)

36. pikapowerize

Posts: 1869; Member since: May 03, 2012

actually true!! but i think WP still has a chance! but RIM's problem is that, it dont have enough money to do marketing that microsoft is doing... and even though nokia is bigger than RIM, RIM close the top 5 manufacturer around the world(1-samsung, 2-apple and 5- BlackBerry)! so meaning BlackBerry is still well-loved by people! and meaning BlackBerry OS is the 3rd ecosystem in the war! if press could just be positive for RIM and stop saying BS like this one... BB10 will be a sure win for RIM!

27. snowgator

Posts: 3621; Member since: Jan 19, 2011

I want a job as an analyst... I want to be able to guess and be held unaccountable a year later. There are billions of smart phones sold each year- enough sales for more than 2 OS's to be successful. The only type of phone that is sure to flop in the coming years is the feature phone. A few hundred million more of those users will be coming over to smart phones, increasing the user base for BB10 and other OS's to appeal to. BlackBerry STILL has a fairly loyal user base willing to give BB10 a try, and hopeful it is successful. In that regard, it is better positioned to be successful then my beloved WP8, which has to build an audience yet. I understand how little room for error RIM has in the window of oppportunity for BB10's. It is a hard sell, especially since RIM does not have real deep pockets like a Microsoft . It needs income from one source. But RIM is doing the right thing getting it right before releasing it. Too much at stake for them to screw up the launch. Developers will come to them long before a open sourced WebOS, or an unproven MeeGo, Tizen, or Firefox OS's. BB10 has a punchers chance.

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