x PhoneArena is hiring! Reviewer in the USA

Analyst thinks BlackBerry 10 will be "dead on arrival"

Posted: , by Michael H.

Tags :

Analyst thinks BlackBerry 10 will be
It's been something of a rollercoaster for BlackBerry fans recently, although admittedly, the rollercoaster has been mostly downswings. So, it shouldn't really be a surprise that an analyst is now saying that BlackBerry 10 will be "dead on arrival", nor should it surprise that not everyone agrees.

The doomsaying is coming from a Pacific Crest analyst, James Faucette, who said, “We expect the new OS to be met with a lukewarm response at best and ultimately likely to fail" adding that "BB10 is likely to be DOA." Faucette thinks that an unfamiliar user interface, a lack of compatible technology, and few software applications will lead to slow adoption by users. Although, that last point is in direct conflict with other analyst predictions.

Paradigm Capital is even putting the price target at $14, citing RIM's success in drawing developers to the BB10 ecosystem as "a key catalyst for success." Paradigm Capital and two other analyst companies: Cormark Securities, and Scotia Capital all have RIM stock as a "buy".  Apparently none of the concerns of Pacific Crest look too serious to these analysts. 

From what we've seen of BlackBerry 10, we can see the logic on both sides. Yes, BB10 will have a new user interface, but it's not exactly "unfamiliar". Anyone who has seen Android, iOS, or Windows Phone will find familiar things in BB10, since the platform seems to draw inspiration from each of the three main competitors. We're not exactly sure what to make of the idea of a lack of compatible technology. It's not like the current range of BlackBerry devices has a big accessory ecosystem like the iPhone, and the lack of such accessories certainly hasn't been a hindrance to the ascension of Android. 

The app ecosystem is the real key. At BlackBerry Jam Americas it did seem as though RIM has gotten support from a number of key developers, but we could say the same about Windows Phone, which has yet to really make a move in the US, but has found a bit of traction in Europe. BlackBerry does have a bit more of a user-base to draw from with its enterprise users, and international users, but many have been moving to either Android or iOS, so it's hard to say how many of those users will still be there when BB10 is finally launched. 

Given the competition in the smartphone world, and the trouble that even big names like Microsoft have in unseating the juggernaut that is Android, or the solid second-place iOS, it's not hard to imagine BB10 being a flop when it eventually does arrive. RIM's troubles in pushing out BB10 has led to shares of the company dropping over 10 dollars in the last year, from a high of $19 a share to just $8.24 today. Assuming the stock continues to slide in the lead-up to the BlackBerry 10 release, it would be quite an impressive feat to get up to Paradigm Capital's target of $14.

source: Bloomberg

  • Options

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:06 35

1. No_Nonsense (unregistered)

Don't these analysts have something better to do? Even astrologers are better than these clowns.

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:49 3

8. Nadr1212 (Posts: 741; Member since: 22 Sep 2012)

Well BB, where's that new awesome phone with 2 gigs of ram at that PA said u'd announce like 2 months ago?!! LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:51 9

9. No_Nonsense (unregistered)

You know BB10 phones are coming next year, don't you?

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 01:40 3

23. PhenomFaz (Posts: 1236; Member since: 26 Sep 2012)

BB is just being very late to the party...a launch before the holidays would've really given them a chance to rack up some serious coin....and its always leaks and dates...dont overdo it BB ....it might just end up being all fizzle

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 02:43 2

25. bluexperia (Posts: 41; Member since: 29 Sep 2012)

nothing but agree... new os seems promising but late launch would make them like a baby learn to walk again...

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:54 2

11. iWorld (Posts: 85; Member since: 05 Jul 2012)

Is it BlackBerry 10 will be dead "on arrival"

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 00:19 1

16. anywherehome (Posts: 971; Member since: 13 Dec 2011)

if you work with shares you need to know this.....time to switch to Android, dear RIM
you can make it different, you have a chance to show your creativity

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:12 10

2. Birds (Posts: 1171; Member since: 21 Nov 2011)

I won't believe it till I see it.

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:15 1

3. thatguyyouknow (Posts: 1; Member since: 07 Nov 2012)

NO s**t....

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:15 3

4. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5993; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)

Well, RIM will have the better part of 2013 to try to build sales from near zero after missing out on the 2012 holiday sales....

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:27 6

5. xtroid2k (Posts: 534; Member since: 11 Jan 2010)

Last stand. Can RIM survive. Only time will tell.

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:52

10. Nadr1212 (Posts: 741; Member since: 22 Sep 2012)

Is that really a Question that needs to be asked right now, I mean LOOK at BB, RIM dude!!!! It's a freakin mess!

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 00:54

19. TheMan (Posts: 493; Member since: 21 Sep 2012)

A mess for sure, but I was just reading a 2008 article about Motorola, which at the time at an 8.5% market share after falling from 20%. It was declared "a mess" too. Point is, it's possible to turn around a company, even RIM.

That said, I confess that I've always thought BB was terribly overrated during the crackberry era. I still think it'll take a change from the outside to bring it back.

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:34 2

6. Mxyzptlk (unregistered)

It doesn't take an analyst to come up with something so obvious.

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 21:41 11

7. rusticguy (Posts: 2828; Member since: 11 Aug 2012)

yea who would have predicetd that IPAD share would be down to 50% :D

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 00:20 2

17. anywherehome (Posts: 971; Member since: 13 Dec 2011)

I did a year ago.....and last year I DID know that Android would have at least 60 % next year 2013 ;)
but it is and was obvious too

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 22:04 4

12. reader (Posts: 1; Member since: 07 Nov 2012)

I wonder why analysts always have negative "prediction" or comment on non-US brands while having a good news always for apple. any apple s**t always have good news. they even defend apple's shortcoming. and the best part is: blogs publish them all the time.

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 22:22 3

13. Johnnokia (Posts: 1146; Member since: 27 May 2012)

RIM, Motorola and Nokia gave a huge favor in building this great phone's world. I wish them always the best luck, even I have never had Blackberry in my life.But, RIM has to be survived.

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 22:27 1

14. No_Nonsense (unregistered)

Of all the phones in the market my preference would be Nokia/BB/Jolla>Nexus>iPhone>other Androids>Other WP

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 08:34 3

29. Darkerm (Posts: 319; Member since: 31 Jan 2012)

Yeah, I want everyone to Survive. If we got more mobile OS, we will have more competition and more quality Apps, Games, and devices ^_^

posted on 07 Nov 2012, 22:43 1

15. slaggyb (Posts: 215; Member since: 19 Oct 2011)

Who the hell is James Faucette??

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 00:46

18. bloodline (Posts: 706; Member since: 01 Dec 2011)

In before apple sues

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 01:17 1

20. lolwoot (Posts: 27; Member since: 01 Jun 2011)

AHAAH!!!! DOA you say? honestly, BB 10 already Dead Before Announced more like it >:)

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 01:19

21. Doakie (Posts: 2227; Member since: 06 May 2009)

Yeah this is going to be pretty humiliating. Rim should have just taken AOSP and built atop it with a BlackBerry 10-like skin. They would have been able to draw from the momentum of Android, and combined their hardware expertise with custom BlackBerry exclusive apps and they could have held on. Same thing with Nokia, they should have taken AOSP and skinned it with a Symbian style skin. Their existing user base would have stuck it out and with the Android ecosystem backing them up they wouldn't have had any issues with shortage of apps... Looks like the people who lead companies are idiots.

posted on 09 Nov 2012, 02:01

39. ShibeshMehrotra (Posts: 9; Member since: 03 Apr 2012)

Oh, so by your logic, even Apple should just take the iPhone and a put an iOS-skinned version of Android on it.

"Looks like the people who lead companies are idiots."

Looks like we've got ourselves a winner here.

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 02:27 2

24. speckledapple (Posts: 892; Member since: 29 Sep 2011)

I care not for analysts but I do hope that BB10 provides a significant boost to the blackberry ecosystem. I would like an environment where four major mobile OS systems are competing with each other on price, features, and most importantly quality. Just imaginging Android, iOS, Windows Phone, and BB10, awesome

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 23:56

35. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)

yeah!!! foursome! thats awesome!

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 04:52

26. Tsepz_GP (Posts: 1043; Member since: 12 Apr 2012)

IMO, RIM has a better chance than Nokia and the BB10 OS has a better chance than WP, its all a matter of great timing though. If WP doesnt manage to rack up some market share in the holiday season with the WP8 devices then RIM will have a great chance as WP still wont be as well recognised. Lets wait and see :)

posted on 09 Nov 2012, 00:06

36. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)

actually true!! but i think WP still has a chance! but RIM's problem is that, it dont have enough money to do marketing that microsoft is doing...

and even though nokia is bigger than RIM, RIM close the top 5 manufacturer around the world(1-samsung, 2-apple and 5- BlackBerry)! so meaning BlackBerry is still well-loved by people! and meaning BlackBerry OS is the 3rd ecosystem in the war!

if press could just be positive for RIM and stop saying BS like this one... BB10 will be a sure win for RIM!

posted on 08 Nov 2012, 07:27

27. snowgator (Posts: 3604; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)

I want a job as an analyst... I want to be able to guess and be held unaccountable a year later.

There are billions of smart phones sold each year- enough sales for more than 2 OS's to be successful.

The only type of phone that is sure to flop in the coming years is the feature phone. A few hundred million more of those users will be coming over to smart phones, increasing the user base for BB10 and other OS's to appeal to.

BlackBerry STILL has a fairly loyal user base willing to give BB10 a try, and hopeful it is successful. In that regard, it is better positioned to be successful then my beloved WP8, which has to build an audience yet.

I understand how little room for error RIM has in the window of oppportunity for BB10's. It is a hard sell, especially since RIM does not have real deep pockets like a Microsoft . It needs income from one source. But RIM is doing the right thing getting it right before releasing it. Too much at stake for them to screw up the launch. Developers will come to them long before a open sourced WebOS, or an unproven MeeGo, Tizen, or Firefox OS's. BB10 has a punchers chance.

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

Want to comment? Please login or register.

Latest stories