Analyst sees AT&T growth slowing if Verizon gets the iPhone

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Analyst sees AT&T growth slowing if Verizon gets the iPhone
Walter Piecyk is the head researcher for Pali Research and he expects darker days ahead for AT&T if the carrier loses its exclusivity to sell the iPhone in the U.S. to other carriers, especially Verizon. The researcher believes that if the iPhone were available on all wireless platforms, customers would head toward the most reliable and faster service which Piecyk says belongs to Verizon. He forecasts that AT&T will have net subscriber additions of less than 1 million in 2010 from a total of more than 4 million net subscriber additions in 2008. Pali Research has just issued new equity ratings on the two carriers and Piecyk explains, "A basic premise of our recently initiated buy rating on Verizon and sell rating on AT&T is our belief that as the iPhone exclusivity period rolls off between AT&T Wireless and Apple, a material number of AT&T customers will flock to Verizon’s superior network."

source: LA Times

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95 Comments

1. PapaJay224

Posts: 866; Member since: Feb 08, 2009

More like dissapearing...

76. durkadurkha

Posts: 10; Member since: Jul 10, 2009

Never going to happen, Apple doesn't even let carrier branding on their iPhone let alone allow Verizon to run it's own APP store!

77. jherz6

Posts: 217; Member since: May 23, 2008

And so what if they dont, Rim has there own app store and it doesnt seem to bother VZW one bit.

87. Miacol

Posts: 40; Member since: Oct 10, 2008

RIM is far more flexible with items like that Apple not so much, Apple is a big stickler for making sure everything is labeled Apple.

2. PL007

Posts: 22; Member since: Feb 09, 2009

I tend to agree with this Article. If Apple makes a phone specifically for Verizon, AT&T IMHO will lose subs. Not a little but a large amount. All those who left VZW for AT&T & the iPhone will go back. I personally think it will get ugly for AT&T.

84. TheCellDepotVZW

Posts: 26; Member since: Dec 26, 2008

Well thats what would happen if you put a phone people actually want on a Network People Actually Want!!! I personally think it would make Apple tons more by giving a phone to VZW since so many people want it that way anyways. There are loyal At&t customers out there that would not switch, but I dont think there is enough of those people to keep it een remotely close to the way it is now! Sorry At&t...

88. Miacol

Posts: 40; Member since: Oct 10, 2008

You do realize that with the iPhone ATT only added 3 million new customers. The remaining balance of iPhone users were already ATT. I don't care if they put one on VZW as long as Apple keeps the GSM track alive and offer new phones as well. Now mind you what ends is the exclusivity that does not meant that Apple is abandoning ATT.

3. Galen20K

Posts: 559; Member since: Dec 26, 2008

ATT really is the Most Horrible Carrier in the Entire world. It would only be a Matter of Time until people came to their Senses and leave them. Personally I would NEVER give up my Awesome Carrier for one phone, sorry. I have more sense than the 4 million sheep.

19. Miacol

Posts: 40; Member since: Oct 10, 2008

lol your so funny, the Most Horrible Carrier in the Entire world, that's just precious, thanks for the laugh. Now everyone keeps talking about an iPhone for Verizon, but there is something everyone forgot an exclusive contract for 5 years (or was it only for 3 years, which still puts them into 2011) with ATT established in 2007 which was extended in 2008, so I'm not sure why this keeps coming up, I know people love to talk but this is a bit much.

26. jherz6

Posts: 217; Member since: May 23, 2008

I dont know where you get your info however the exclusivity ends next year, and thru a reliable source VZW will be able to carry the iphone as early as next year.

27. Miacol

Posts: 40; Member since: Oct 10, 2008

Not sure where you got your source that says it ends next year, I would re-check that source, though I could be wrong, but I thought the original contract was signed for years in 2007 and was extended in 2008 for another year.

44. BlackberryUser

Posts: 609; Member since: Jun 26, 2009

Everybody has thrown around dates on these forums and articles, but the rumor is that Verizon will have the phone next year. Typically these rumors are based in thruth a little bit and they've been around for a few years. I don't think AT&T is the worst carrier, but nobody can honestly argue that losing their exclusive rights to the iPhone would hit them hard. The actual date is irrelevant as it will eventually happen, even if it's a couple years down the road after LTE is fully rolled out. At some point AT&T can't offer enough to keep an exclusive contract.

54. lolipopjones

Posts: 51; Member since: Jun 21, 2009

With what? Verizon will be using CDMA for voice and LTE for data even up to 2014 that info is provided via VzLearn LTE transition. Any phone on VzW's network will have to be gateway devices meaning they will not be capable of simulitanious voice and data. A GSM iPhone will be worthless on Verizon's network because while it will be able to use the Data network (LTE is backwards compatible.) it will not be able to use voice. VzW's LTE is for Broadband Access via Data Cards and bragging rights. They will not use LTE for voice so anyone with GSM phones have no use of VzW's network. The other problem is how likely do you think Apple will want to make a CDMA/LTE phone? Verizon's "superior" network is a joke. A large network is no use if the handsets they sell are trash. I am sure Apple is going to discontinue their app store for VzW to put their trash App Store on it along with its garbage Vcast rhapsody....

82. j.naueattrep

Posts: 24; Member since: Jul 19, 2009

I have worked for Verizon, T-mobile, and At&t. Through those experiences I have gained a larger understanding between the differences in the carrier networks and technologies. Being placed under a CDMA network like Verizon will hurt the Iphone due to it being a single use only network. What I mean by this is that Push Email only works when you are not in a phone call. Internet only works if you are not doing anything else on the phone. In At&t and T-mobile networks, however, GSM (which is what the entire world uses short of tiny companies in the US, Verizon, and Sprint), is a vastly superior technology that allows it's users to be in a phone call, receive texts, get push email, and do so on-the-fly all at the same time. We also have the size issue to iron out. Take for instance the V3 Razr in At&t and compare it to a V3 in Verizon: The Verizon phone is a lot thicker due to having to have the CDMA component put in. The battery life using CDMA on the Razr is a measly 3 hours talk time compared to the SAME phone and battery in at&t of 7.5 hour talk time. We can make more calls, send more data at TWICE the speeds (Verizon 1xEV 1.5Mbts, At&t 3.6Mbts) and still have more battery left that the Verizon versions. We have more tower locations, larger calling base, and our bandwidths can handle larger loads.

94. j.naueattrep

Posts: 24; Member since: Jul 19, 2009

Ahhh, but those same customers would complain of 1 hour usage time from a full Iphone battery using LTE. The transfers combined with the incredibly higher call usage drain under Verizon's CDMA network would make the Iphone all but useless. Plus, placing the CDMA component and a larger battery inside of the current Iphone housing would make it roughly the size of a brick. It would make a good paperweight at that point.

4. SilverPearl

Posts: 31; Member since: Jul 08, 2008

I have customers coming in all the time hoping that the iPhone finally comes to Verizon Wireless saying that they don't want to lose their coverage they have now, especially in this region.

5. hmcougar09

Posts: 137; Member since: Jan 25, 2009

VZW FTW! Woohoo.

6. drewsky

Posts: 147; Member since: Jan 04, 2009

This is the second article today that can't be proven. Whats up with that? Are their more VZ ads here than ATT? Im not saying this can't happen, but its pointless, and biased. Two articles made for ATT to look bad.

8. vzw fanman

Posts: 1977; Member since: Dec 11, 2008

there have been way more articles to bash verizon though...

10. The Doc

Posts: 122; Member since: Dec 11, 2008

If you think about it, it doesn't need to be proven. It's more common sense than anything. Whether people like it or not, VZW is the BEST carrier in the U.S. Of course people would want a carrier that took a cool device and made it a better phone! But I still don't think we needed an analyst to tell us that...

18. E.N.

Posts: 2610; Member since: Jan 25, 2009

I don't think that it matters what company gets the iPhone. If Sprint or/and T-mobile gets the iPhone, sales for the Att iPhone will split. Verizon may have the bigger impact, but we don't know that for sure. Let's not get too Verizon happy.

20. Miacol

Posts: 40; Member since: Oct 10, 2008

The really is a matter of Opinion, live and work in NYC, VZW could not provide service where I work (according to VZW engineers we do not have towers pointing to wall street), They could not provide service in the Heights and SOHA (That's Washington Heights and South of Harlem for non NYC folks). Where I know live in Teaneck, NJ oh yeah we have great coverage just not in your section (what?) and where my mom lives (Bogota, NJ) the reception was worse then where I live in Teaneck. I was paying for a service that I did not have, plus I could not travel back home with my VZW BB I had to get another carrier back home, which always sucked. Once we moved to ATT (with the exception of my VZW BB - It's company owned) my family and I are much happier. So again it's a matter of Opinion, oh and by the way I have tons of friends with the same experience as me.

38. Arielnyc2006 unregistered

I work on Wall st (Trump Building on 40 Wall) and I get excellent Verizon service here so that is BS that "according to VZW engineers we do not have towers pointing to wall street". I also have get great coverage in the Heights.

45. BlackberryUser

Posts: 609; Member since: Jun 26, 2009

This is a very good point, Verizon may have the best coverage or phones, but if they don't have coverage where you live you'll choose a different carrier.

46. BlackberryUser

Posts: 609; Member since: Jun 26, 2009

Miacol was probably exagerating and they may not have coverage at his particular building.

50. Miacol

Posts: 40; Member since: Oct 10, 2008

Right up the block on Wall, New, Broad and Exchange, check it out. And where in the Heights do you get excellent coverage in the Heights (are you talking about Morning or Washington)? I can give you exact locations areas of drop... Though I must say to an extend he or she is right in the Heights, VZW has been aggressively pushing new towers in Washington Heights, but still get 1, 2 bars at max...

62. Arielnyc2006 unregistered

Were you talking about Morningside Heights area around 112, I don't know about that area, but in Washington heights they have improved alot in the past year.

65. Miacol

Posts: 40; Member since: Oct 10, 2008

Well I have seen towers go up and better performance in the Heights (Washington specifically), but there are still large holes in the area. I'm sure VZW will close those holes up, but the overall point is that the network is not perfect, everyone wants to bash ATT, but VZW suffers from similar situations.

83. j.naueattrep

Posts: 24; Member since: Jul 19, 2009

I agree. Ever stand in line at a Verizon store and out of the 14 people in front of you maybe one leaves with a new phone and the rest are issues? By the time you reach the front of the line there are 14 more people behind you doing the same thing. Go to an at&t store and don't wait in line----oh, that's right, we take care of people so well the 1st time they are in the store we rarely see them again and there is rarely ever a line.

7. vzw fanman

Posts: 1977; Member since: Dec 11, 2008

interesting...i'm sure the growth would slow too.

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