Analyst says his colleagues are too bullish on the Apple iPhone X

by Alan Friedman / Jan 02, 2018, 9:40 PM

Analyst says his colleagues are too bullish on the Apple iPhone X

An analyst by the name of Nicolas Baratte works for Hong Kong investment bank CLSA. Baratte says that any one of his colleagues forecasting fiscal Q1 Apple iPhone X sales greater than 35 million units, is too bullish on the tenth anniversary device. Baratte's comment came after Apple reportedly cut its expectation of iPhone X sales during its fiscal second quarter to 30 million handsets from 50 million. Chinese tech stocks plunged following the release of this news.

The CLSA analyst says that anyone who wanted an iPhone X last month has already purchased one, meaning that demand has been satiated. However, both Baratte and Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson agree that Apple can jump start the iPhone X market by cutting prices of the high-end model.

Olson, who is bullish on Apple unlike Baratte, expects the tech giant to offer a lower-priced iPhone X model this year, and an iPhone X Plus premium variant as well. That dovetails with earlier reports that Apple will offer a 6.5-inch iPhone X later this year, a lower priced iPhone X-type model with an LCD screen, and an iPhone X sequel with a 5.8-inch OLED display.

"We expect a lower priced X-gen option (likely the current iPhone X with a price cut) and we wouldn't be surprised to see a 'plus' X-gen model in 2018. Such a price reduction would likely test the "upper bounds" of what iPhone users are willing to pay, the analyst said, and could provide a cheaper option for those looking for more screen space on their smartphone."-Michael Olson, analyst, Piper Jaffray

source: CNBC

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22 Comments

1. cnour

Posts: 2305; Member since: Sep 11, 2014

Few hours later, another analyst will say the contrary. AAPL is going up now, toward 1 trillion for sure this year.

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 9:49 PM 4

2. SPASE

Posts: 261; Member since: May 03, 2013

You should sell now mate, sold 80% of mine. And then buy back in around may ;)

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 10:10 PM 6

4. sgodsell

Posts: 7213; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

I stayed at one Apple store for just over an hour with a friend of mine. We saw people buying regular iPhones. But in that time nobody bought an iPhone X. It's one thing to make changes to the next generation iPhone. However Apple pushed a number of changes on iPhone X users. For instance forcing FaceID on it's customers for one. Removing TouchID altogether, when Apple could have easily included TouchID as well as FaceID. Then there is the gestures, and no home button. There is no landscape mode like there is with plus models. The notch design is another issue not only in looks, but functionality as well. Developers have to take into account the notch. Not to mention lots of apps don't take advantage of the notch. Needless to say there is a lot wrong with the iPhone X. Nevermind it's high price tag.

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 10:35 PM 14

11. ph00ny

Posts: 2026; Member since: May 26, 2011

I'm in agreement with you there. I went to the apple store to show the wife the X to see if she would be more interested in upgrading from 7+ and she liked the 8+ more so than X. One thing she did say was that at quick glance, X's UI was more confusing since it's gesture based

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 1:23 AM 3

25. makatijules

Posts: 835; Member since: Dec 11, 2017

The biggest crowds at all Apple stores are touristtouriats and people their for service. Apple does not directly sell a lot of phones. Carriers do, because of subsidation.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 7:13 PM 0

5. audibot

Posts: 600; Member since: Jan 26, 2017

HONESTLY, I HIT APPLES UI BUT SINCE THEY STOLE WEBOS THAT I LOVED I THINK I COULD USE THE X AND BE OK FOR THE MOST PART.

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 10:52 PM 0

10. SIGPRO

Posts: 2815; Member since: Oct 03, 2012

Dream on we p!ss on AAPL stocks!

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 1:08 AM 2

3. piyath

Posts: 2445; Member since: Mar 23, 2012

Too bullish or or too skeptical??? We all know Apple has surprised us all many times before with insane sales numbers and profits. These analysts are a bunch of sissies and should be taken with a grain of salt, all of them.

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 10:30 PM 6

6. cncrim

Posts: 1586; Member since: Aug 15, 2011

Trust Analyst is different then untrust analyst, however the report said Apple cut back on order is then it is not grain of salt, report = in progress.

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 11:11 PM 3

12. Anonymous.

Posts: 423; Member since: Jun 15, 2016

Piyath, you can't have every single analyst out there predicting only what you want to believe or hear. That doesn't make them sissies... Ha, that's nitpicking at it's best.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 2:37 AM 2

19. sissy246

Posts: 7074; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

Exactly, if analyst say anything negative about Apple Piyath will say they are all stupid. If Apple is always doing so good then why won't Apple give numbers.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 8:41 AM 0

21. makatijules

Posts: 835; Member since: Dec 11, 2017

The article says, Apple cut its own sales forecast from 50M to 30M. You did read that...Right? Or are you blind to the facts again. Here is another fact for you. When iPhone sales are good, shipping times are as long as 8 to 12 weeks. The iPhone X started off at a 3 week ship period and 4 weeks later, shipping times improved to 3 days or less. You can after 3 weeks walk into any carrier or Apple store an get at least the 256GB model which actually saw the lowest sales do to it's $1150 price tag and conider how much that costs outside the US. Yes they will still have high sales, because everyone bought the less costing 8. Especially after PA posted an article that Apple pulled the iPhone 7 to encourage 8 sales because people were buying the 7. Did you not see that article too? Or do you need to see thatt link? https://www.google.com/amp/s/tribune.com.pk/story/1538988/8-apple-stops-selling-256gb-iphone-7-increase-demand-iphone-8/%3famp=1 https://www.google.com/amp/s/9to5mac.com/2017/11/09/iphone-7-iphone-8-plus-sales-shipments/amp/ Either way all the money goes to Apple. But since the 7 price dropped, that means Apples profit margin will too. So they pulled it to increase 8 and X sales.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 6:52 PM 1

7. worldpeace

Posts: 3129; Member since: Apr 15, 2016

Cut the expectation twice... And boom, next headline news "Apple surpass expectation", even if it's just slightly over, and much lower than first expectation..

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 11:13 PM 6

23. makatijules

Posts: 835; Member since: Dec 11, 2017

If tou expectations arw low, rhwn anything higher is a God send

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 6:59 PM 0

8. domfonusr

Posts: 1083; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

As long as Apple keeps making less than 20% of the phones, and keeps taking home more than 50% of the industry's profits, I can't see Apple losing on this one. Perhaps they will reduce the number of iPhones in the pipeline due to low sales... but they will still make bank even on reduced flow. Apple could double the price of iPhones and cut production in half, and they would save money from manufacturing costs and simultaneously explode margins - they would actually make more money that way. If they increase prices, I'll never have any hope to own an iPhone, so I sort of hope prices come down, but lets at least be realistic...

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 11:15 PM 2

9. palmguy

Posts: 979; Member since: Mar 22, 2011

Yep. Make inexpensively, sell for a high price, sell em batteries for a problem we created. Mo' money, mo' money, mo' money!

posted on Jan 02, 2018, 11:43 PM 6

18. HansP

Posts: 542; Member since: Oct 16, 2011

I remember the days when Apple apologist were bullish about Apple making over 100% of the industry profits. Then it was 90%. Now we're proud of 50%?

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 7:30 AM 0

20. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Fam the 50% value he gave was just a marker point. They haven't made LESS than 75% of industry profit per quarter in 5 years.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 9:59 AM 0

16. scarface21173

Posts: 660; Member since: Aug 17, 2014

Listen the main reason X is not selling is price, if it was available frm launch at a reasonable 799 the device would of been best seller. It needs a 20% price cut if they want to shift stock.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 5:07 AM 2

22. domfonusr

Posts: 1083; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

On the contrary, I've heard the theory that Apple's demand goes UP with prices, not the other way around. It is a bizarre trend which is contrary to the most accepted laws of economics, I know... but if there is any truth to it, then Apple would do best by reducing production and INCREASING prices in order to make the iPhone more... exclusive.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 6:54 PM 0

17. mootu

Posts: 1500; Member since: Mar 16, 2017

They will come in slightly above average on sales but profits will be record breaking due to the 8 & X having far higher profit margins per device.

posted on Jan 03, 2018, 5:37 AM 1

24. makatijules

Posts: 835; Member since: Dec 11, 2017

I agree. But it's gonna depend on how many beers sold. Apple cut product 30 days after the iPhone 8 was release. Something we never saw before except with the 7. Up the most disappointing thing about this years iPhones, fast charging with no fast charger, no premium heaphones..AGAIN, same dwaign...AGAIN X 4, and iOS 11 is infested with bugs and the notch on the X and the increase of price on the 8 and X to get features that on Samsung were cheaper when those phones were new. People aren't stupid. After all, Apple fans claim IOS users are so smart. Yet to dumb to see how much Apple keeps ripping them off. Having said that I liked the X. But it is too pricey for 60% of my apps not to work.