Analysis forecast: Windows Phone shipments in 2017 will reach 2012 iOS levels

posted by Maxwell R. / Dec 21, 2012, 1:24 AM

Analysis forecast: Windows Phone shipments in 2017 will reach 2012 iOS levels

We love to share the latest in what analysts think in the market of mobile communications. Some of it can be quite cogent, some states the obvious, and some seems like it is sourced from a parallel universe.

This one looks to be semi-obvious. It is generally accepted that the rate of growth for the smartphone market will slowly taper over the next few years. Do not let that fool you though, growth is still going to be stellar. Shipments of smartphones in 2012 will top about 700 million units which account for about 41% of all handsets. By 2017, analysts at Analysis Mason believe that three out of four smartphone purchases will be driven by upgrades with total smartphone shipments reaching 1.37 billion units (70% of total mobile phone shipments).

Not surprisingly, Android is forecast to be the dominant platform, keeping about 60% of the market share. iOS will maintain its hold of second spot with a tidy 23% of the share. The real mover according to analysts will be Windows Phone, which is expected to see tremendous growth over the next four years. Analysis Mason sees Windows Phone shipments growing from 11 million in 2011 to over 136 million units in 2017. That represents a growth of over 1000% over a period of six years.

Even with that growth however, Windows Phone will still only have about 9% of the global market. It does place Windows Phone and Microsoft in a solid third position. We have seen predictions like this before. Having a strong third platform is good for consumers, as it puts pressure on the dominant players to keep them competitive with all the associated services and products, which these three, Apple, Google and Microsoft all offer.

It puts some pressure on the carriers, but gives them opportunities as well. Having a stronger third platform gives the carriers more leverage when working with manufacturers and procuring sales agreements. On the other hand, as Windows Phone gains more popularity and entices consumers to make switches between platforms, carriers will be challenged to retain their customer base. They will likely have to meet that with better valued rate plans and contract incentives.

Things continue to be looking up in the world of mobile devices. That is a good thing since it will continue to give us more to write about.

source: FierceMobile (1, 2)

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22 Comments

1. wendygarett unregistered

From 1980 till now, Apple's os shares is always stabilized at 20% and it will continue to stable there for the rest of the eternity.... Say what you want android fanboy... Apple will never die, and who knows, you will be eaten by ms lol :)

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 1:30 AM 2

2. SIGPRO

Posts: 2810; Member since: Oct 03, 2012

I give Apple Max 5 years then the iphone will be dead, the iphone is no inovation at all.....o wait the iphone 5 is the most innovative phone of all phones, the sceen is slightly bigger.........that is just it! Iphone used to be a nice phone when it came out, but now they are way behind the market!

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 1:53 AM 5

6. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4766; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

I agree. Unless Apple decides to do something about their OS and the design of the phone.

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:02 AM 8

7. tiara6918

Posts: 2262; Member since: Apr 26, 2012

Yep,they really need to change the ui,design,add more improvements,etc. Even loyal apple fans are now choosing android and windows phone since apple keeps on releasing the same thing over and over again

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:09 AM 1

10. wendygarett unregistered

Hmm, let's take Nokia as example... Nokia has 2 billions of cash that time, Nokia makes looses for the 5 consecutive years, Nokia sell off his hq, and yet, Nokia manage to survive healthily... hmm, let see Apple, it has 9 billions of cash, profit is bigger than Google facebook Yahoo Microsoft combined, decided to build new hq, and now decide to move production into US... some users refuse to change, and that's why gingerbread remains the most popular os on android, and Windows xp the most popular on desktop... If you think Apple or iPhone will die just like that, It's all depend the users attitude... the world is full of average users, not a bunch of geekdroid whose crying for the new stuff everyday...

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:16 AM 3

11. mick25

Posts: 110; Member since: Nov 12, 2012

LMAO wendygarett confirmed for retard "hmm, let see Apple, it has 9 billions of cash, profit is bigger than Google facebook Yahoo Microsoft combined, decided to build new hq, and now decide to move production into US..." "some users refuse to change, and that's why gingerbread remains the most popular os on android, and Windows xp the most popular on desktop" "the world is full of average users, not a bunch of geekdroid whose crying for the new stuff everyday..." ahahahhahahha! thanks for the laughs

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:18 AM 2

14. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4766; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

Lets see Wendy, since you're talking about Nokia and Apple, i must have to add this. How many phones does Apple have? And how many does Nokia have? I'm talking about all the phones in each segment since were talking about the company as a whole. There is only one segment of phones Apple produce...and that is losing ground. Nokia might have lost a battle in the smartphone area, which they are greatly recovering from, but they have mid and low segments that can keep them afloat. If Apple loses it's battle in the one line of phones they have, it's down, down and down.

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:53 AM 8

15. wendygarett unregistered

you have a point here... I understand now :D dont know why your words are so convincing to me lol... It just that it's hard to believe apple die just like that, MS keep bully apple for the past 10 years, and now it's android turns to bully apple... and yet apple remains survive healthily... Only time will tell Nathan lol

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 3:02 AM 2

16. SIGPRO

Posts: 2810; Member since: Oct 03, 2012

Damn u must be a really dumb, first i am not droid fanboy, i don't like android anymore. I must say Symbian was a good os Meego would have killes ios Let see what Sailfish will do, i agree Nokia was behind the market this because of mismanagent i think. Nokia is one of the oldest phone maker in the wordl, they were on 1st place 14 years long. They will get that place back eventually, i will say Apple will never reach 1st place, this because iphones are just not that good anymore!

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 3:36 AM 3

17. eisenbricher

Posts: 973; Member since: Aug 09, 2012

Wendy I agree with you.

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 5:05 AM 2

18. wendygarett unregistered

Thank you :)

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 5:38 AM 1

5. eisenbricher

Posts: 973; Member since: Aug 09, 2012

Actually iOS, Android, WP are all going to live. All are hugely advanced OSes, and are still improving. There will always be competition based on market share, but that's all. Can't say the same about BB10 until I see the results.

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:01 AM 4

8. mick25

Posts: 110; Member since: Nov 12, 2012

armchair economists lmao

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:13 AM 2

3. eisenbricher

Posts: 973; Member since: Aug 09, 2012

I agree to this. WP has that caliber. It just needs to keep adding new things at consistent pace. And no need to mention, Nokia will play a key role in success of WP.

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 1:57 AM 7

4. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4766; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

By that time WP might have customizable homescreen, widgets, multiple apps to choose from, lots and lots of improvements...and the rate will be higher. The above given numbers by analysts may be calculated with the current offering of WP. WP will upgrade, hence the customer circle will widen, and the numbers will increase.

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:00 AM 3

12. AliNSiddiqui

Posts: 382; Member since: Sep 19, 2012

Agreed.. honestly WP8 is innovative and seperate from the bunch. Their home screen isn'twidgets or icons but ssomething new... hell they don't even have icons...

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 2:31 AM 2

20. stychill unregistered

you don't expect the other os's to stagnate do you?

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 8:23 AM 0

21. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4766; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

No, i don't except for iOS...

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 8:52 AM 0

22. stychill unregistered

lol, i had that in mind...but i didn't type it, i honestly believe apple isn't that dumb they won't do something about that crap of an os, i like their phone design & construction...their appstore but...i hate their os

posted on Dec 21, 2012, 9:52 AM 0

9. MeoCao unregistered

Throwing numbers around is easy, the hard part is backing those numbers up with solid data and sound reasoning. I would like the analysts to tell us how they reached the prediction.