Microsoft believes the smartphone battle has just begun
Mundie admits that in the mid-2000s Microsoft may have “taken their eye off the ball” in regards to mobile devices while it worked on security challenges and development cycles of its mainline products. He says that left a big opportunity for Apple to move in and capitalize on the market, but moving forward, Microsoft definitely believes mobile computing is an essential component to its future success.
Mundie states that the global penetration for smartphones is only 2% and the replacement cycle on smart phones is 1.5 to 2 years. The ability to spread into the rest of the global market coupled with the fairly quick recovery rate, when compared to PCs, makes him believe that the smartphone battle is just beginning.
He compares the current smartphone OS distribution models to the 3 models that occurred in the PC market. Apple obviously playing the role of Apple, Android taking the place of open-sourced Unix and Linux, and Microsoft using the managed model it used with PCs.
He says the key to success in the long run is brining different technology categories together and having them work in harmony. He believes Microsoft has the edge when it comes to bringing PCs, phones, tablets, TVs. and gaming consoles together in the cloud.
1. redmd (Posts: 896; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
the smartphone battle has just begun. lol where have you been Microsoft?
11. jroc74 (Posts: 4966; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
Exactly...if they it just begun....they already lost.
36. sdsfnehddfgsdfsd (Posts: 8; Member since: 23 Nov 2011)
i have wp7....it needs 4 things to move forward....
background wallpaper on menu.
mp3 as ringtones
flash in internet explorer
more colors to choose from, for tiles
52. GJanee (Posts: 214; Member since: 29 Jun 2011)
wallpaper in menu = useless, you won't see it because of the tiles, and you can't read the text in the menu because of it.
mp3 as ringtones = already available with mango, maybe read more about it
flash = useless, flash is dead, especially for mobile phones, html 5 is the way from now on
more colors for the tiles = the only point where you can be agreed on. :D
42. rendHELL (Posts: 304; Member since: 09 Nov 2011)
we dont know yet... maybe they are packing something under... who knows what they will do.... maybe somthing big....
2. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5871; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)
"...where have you been Microsoft?"
Apparently doing large quantities of controlled substances. They all seem to be operating under serious delusions. 100 million WP7 handsets in 2012.... Yeah, right.
16. Lucas777 (Posts: 2137; Member since: 06 Jan 2011)
hey thats what verizon said to the origional iphone and look at where we are now... we have android, ios, wp7, blackberry (sadly), and all sorts of things all because people set high goals...
3. theBankRobber (Posts: 647; Member since: 22 Sep 2011)
Haha come on, no one wants a phone with no appeal. Thats like apple saying, yes after 3-4 years we finally give background wallpapers but the icons cant be move out of the way of the picture and the icons block the image to where you can only see it everytime go to unlock the phone. Even hardcore xbox fans i know call it a complete joke.
4. ZEUS.the.thunder.god (unregistered)
well, i think lets give `em a shot
5. bolaG (Posts: 468; Member since: 15 Aug 2011)
I agree; MS cloud is much richer than adroid, apple, or RIM.
33. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5871; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)
Yeah. In this circumstance, sales talk and bullsh*t walks.... They have a ways to go to get to 100 million WP7/7.5/8 handset sales in 2012.
7. hawk62 (Posts: 320; Member since: 21 Nov 2009)
The game is far from over. With how much more phones are doing and the need/want to connect all your devices, MS has a chance. You have blackberry falling off a cliff. Apple has a complete epic fail in ios 5. and android is crap. MS has an uphill battle but they have maybe the greatest phone maker with them now.
9. mozes316 (Posts: 142; Member since: 30 Sep 2011)
iOS has some bugs to be worked out but it's far from a complete fail and I won't even acknowledge the "Android is crap" statement...
24. jldleo (Posts: 32; Member since: 09 Aug 2011)
You shouldn't drink anymore eggnog. Your comment suggest that you are either drunk or just plain dumb.
34. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5871; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)
"MS has an uphill battle..."
I didn't know the MS crew were into rock climbing. Are they doing it without all of the safety harness thingys?
37. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
Weird you're a confused fanboy. What phone do you use
50. hepresearch (unregistered)
... and apparently our good friend taco here is not actually a fanboy... nope... well, okay, even if he is a fanboy, we do know for sure that he is not confused... he certainly is solid about towing-the-line for Apple...
8. mozes316 (Posts: 142; Member since: 30 Sep 2011)
And like always... Microsoft is late... lol
10. remixfa (Posts: 13938; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
uhh.. i think he got it backwards... Apple is playing apple, but MS is playing unix, and Android is the mass adoption platform that windows PC is.
13. networkdood (Posts: 6274; Member since: 31 Mar 2010)
LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLE!!!!!!
14. som (Posts: 768; Member since: 10 Nov 2009)
It is a beginning for WP7 since WP6.5 was a failure.
15. Commentator (Posts: 2436; Member since: 16 Aug 2011)
WP in general. I don't think they're going to be using "7" for much longer. Mango is 7.5 and Apollo is rumored to be WP8.
17. networkdood (Posts: 6274; Member since: 31 Mar 2010)
I loved by TILT I WP 6.5 phone....but , yeah, things are more advanced now.
18. agamhonda (Posts: 14; Member since: 11 Oct 2011)
Lets see WP bought Skype. It is now available on Facebook, which is the number one social networking site. The next generation of WP will have Front facing cameras. I am sure WP Apollo will allow you to do face time and facebook video chat (skype). This is just starters... there is more to come with Nokia gets started
19. Carlitos (Posts: 333; Member since: 23 Oct 2011)
Battle has already begin, MS is just a little late.
Your Welcomed to join.
20. dunyfunny (Posts: 20; Member since: 05 Nov 2011)
hahaha. someone should say to this guy that information "smartphones have almost 50% of total cell industry!
21. ghost_uwi (Posts: 47; Member since: 05 Nov 2010)
Your a little late..... not a lot just a little.
22. SGSII (Posts: 53; Member since: 22 Nov 2011)
I think they can do great if they can make a user friendly OS with a little more customization... but other than that, Microsoft, welcome to the fight
23. jldleo (Posts: 32; Member since: 09 Aug 2011)
"Mundie firmly believes that the competion between smartphones is just beginning". Would that be because they are still in the starting blocks?
26. ilia1986 (unregistered)
"He compares the current smartphone OS distribution models to the 3 models that occurred in the PC market. Apple obviously playing the role of Apple, Android taking the place of open-sourced Unix and Linux, and Microsoft using the managed model it used with PCs. "
I really want to have some of what he's smoking.
First of all, In the PC world, there aren't NEARLY as many sheep who use Macs as there are sheep who use the iJokes. The Mac isn't even 1/100000th as popular as the iDevices are - and we should be thankful for that, I think. Oh, unless you want every second computer in the world looking exactly alike.
Second of all, Android is the mainstream when it comes to smartphones, now, which is again about 9,000,000,000x more popular than when it comes to all the Linux distros combined.
Third of all - Windows Phone 7 is about as popular among phones as the Mac was among computers, back in 1996, before Big Brother Steve took over. And no, Nokia isn't going to help much with that, either.
In short - this guy is delusional. Seriously.
27. hepresearch (unregistered)
Microsoft was never late. The smartphone came into existence, commercially, around 1996, and the market for it was small and lacking in variety until around 2001. Windows Mobile was around in 2002, competing with the likes of BlackBerry, Symbian (several flavors such as S60, S80, UIQ, etc...), Palm OS, and Danger. WinMo just fell behind for a while. Then Symbian S60 did the same thing. There were no significant challengers who could affordably oppose them in the classic smartphone category. Then iOS arrived, and changed the entire smartphone market strategy... Danger disappeared, Android emerged, Palm OS was replaced by WebOS, Windows Phone replaced WinMo, Symbian and WebOS both died, BlackBerry prepared to transition to QNX, and so on. The smartphone market from 2001 to 2007 was fairly balanced and stable with Nokia and Symbian in charge until the iPhone came, and the smartphone market from 2007 to now (almost 2012) has been in relatively tumultuous circumstances ever since. Once a few more things finish changing, we may well be locked into a new cycle for a while, until the next big shift to hit the market emerges another, say, 4 to 8 years from now. We will probably have iOS, Android, and WP in a fairly balanced setup for a while... they are just fighting to find more favorable balance points for themselves at the moment. The next disruption will likely catch all of them unawares (much like iOS and Android caught Symbian resting on its laurels), and they will have to either keep up and adapt to survive (like WinMo/WP7), or sink into obsolescence and obscurity (like Palm/WebOS, Symbian, etc...).
28. charms55 (Posts: 41; Member since: 08 Nov 2011)
iPhone was "late" getting into the smartphone market and we see where that took them. We act as though nothing happened prior to the invention of the iPhone, iPod and iPad. There are a ton of Android tablets beginning to flood the market in Japan and with Windows 8 we will see even more competition, late or not. What is implied by the statement from Microsoft is that the battle, far from being over, is really "just beginning." That is a whole different thing than claiming that the war only just now started.
I would argue considering the favorable press for this release of WP they are right and already tastes of what is to come both in Tango and Apollo, they are far from out of it.
30. hepresearch (unregistered)
Yes, the iPhone was late... but they also broke the classic smartphone mold when they showed up, and, thanks to consumer demand, ever since then only those who could offer the same sort of experience seem to have any chance at surviving in the new smartphone market that has developed since 2007. Granted Apple did not invent the touchscreen or apps, but they sure knew how to build an intuitive OS with an equally-intuitive ecosystem fully integrated into it. The business model itself was the big game-changer. Apple built upon the success of Symbian in terms of making their OS kernel relatively small and smooth-running, the success of the capacitive touchscreens which had been developed by others like HTC and LG, and incorporated their own twist on OS software management which allows them to cut the fragmentation to manageable levels. Android has managed to deliver a similarly good experience by using the virtual Java machine and powerful hardware specs, but they do not run as smoothly without modification, and the fragmentation on Android has been epic. WP7 is following the Apple software management model more closely, I think... less fragmentation than either Android or the previous WinMo seems to be the result so far. So, Apple being late has actually been in their favor, as they disrupted the old smartphone holdouts, killing many of them off to make room for the new generation (including Android) and a few adapting survivors (like WP7).
29. rbyham (Posts: 7; Member since: 27 Jul 2011)
With everything converging to the phone, MS does have a distinct advantage because they have Windows. Only they can make a phone that looks and works just like millions and millions of desktops and laptops will look that will soon be running Windows 8. Soon we will be unable to avoid what will become those ubiquitous tiles. And if the operating systems produce as promised it should get real interesting.
31. CuttingEdge11 (Posts: 7; Member since: 23 Nov 2011)
I can see what he's saying.. MS does have a huge opportunity considering they already have control of traditional computing with windows. If they can pull all of these aspects together; Windows, Windows Phone, tablets they don't have any yet... not including slate PCs of course), and Xbox; they would have something real special.
32. gallitoking (Posts: 4690; Member since: 17 May 2011)
since when do we cater to what MS says... they havent made a handset worth our time... they are more like back ups.. when one of the starters goes down....
35. snowgator (Posts: 3242; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
If this was a "Smartphone VS. Smartphone" only war, MS would be in deep, dark Doggy-doo-doo. The head start idea is just a polite way to say saturation- Android and Apple have market Saturation. They are nearly every users first or second choice right now, and that puts everyone else trying to chip at the edges of their market shares. It would be a huge rock to chip away at indeed.
But it isn't just Smartphone VS. Smartphone in this day and age. It is ecosystem VS. ecosytem, and that is why MS does most certainly have a shot.
-They can corporate their great gaming experience with the XBOX live into their smartphones, tablets, and computer software. Remember how MS developed their loyal gamer consumer by pushing an online experience back when they were to far behind in THAT industry to recover?
-They can bring their smartphones in as a tool to use with their industry leading PC's and laptop's software experience. Have you seen the commercial with the Dad at the grocery store trying to get things on a list on his WP, only to be sent on a wild goose chase by his sons as they update the list from their home computer? Funny, and a very good selling point.
-They have a huge cloud service already established.
-They are prepping a monster tablet software experience
-They are streamling all their experiences into the "metro UI" appearence which will make everything work together buttery smooth and provide easy across platforms software improvements.
-They have a strong patent library which provides them security and steady revenue.
-They are Microsoft- instant name recognition and very, very deep pockets which allows them to recover from misteps, even ones as big as the whole Windows Mobile fiasco which put them at this disadvantage in the first place.
What were those reasons why a lot of you are betting against them? Oh, yeah- that Smartphone VS Smartphone thingy. OK- ya'll haters must be right.
51. Penny (Posts: 1194; Member since: 04 Feb 2011)
100% agree snowgator.
I've spent some time listening to interviews of the leaders of various tech companies, and I truly feel that Microsoft's Chief Strategy Officer has a really good vision of the likely integration of future computer technology. Smartphones as they exist today are not the end of the road in mobile device technology. In fact, mobile devices are not the end of the road in mobile device technology. The goal of innovation is not to put a laptop and a phone together, give you a tablet, and call it a day. The goal is to have you carry around as little as possible, but allow you to plug into the ecosystem from anywhere at any time.
This means it is all about the platform, the software, the OS, the ecosystem. I don't carry around my smartphone because it has a 1 GHz processor and some ram, because those things are useless on their own. What makes any of it useful is the operating system itself, the platform, and I carry around my smartphone only to be able to access this platform.
You can only be late to the game if everybody knows what is in each level of the game. If the next level of the game has not yet been determined, then the late company still has the opportunity to be the first to start that next level.
38. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
Right now we have iOS(high quality) and android (cheap alternative) as the dominate OS's. Blackberry and Windows have been marginalized. Symbian and web OS are dead.
Google has had a good strategy. Sell cheap and go for volume. That's worked so far, but the problem is the low quality product.
Micrsoft's OS is already way more stable and user friendly than android. Mango was a very nice update which brought its features up to par. There's a lot of pc users out there who would switch to windows phones for the compatibility. Microsofts huge wallet and more open approach of licensing out their OS will make a huge dent in androids market share.
We know from customer satisfaction surveys there's a lot of unhappy android users looking to be saved. Apple is clearly the top dog here, but not everyone wants Apple. We will see a lot switching to both OS's. Within 3 years I see the too 3 being Apple, Microsoft and android in no particular order.
We will have high end(Apple), mid range (Microsoft) and low end (android).
39. readingthissh1t (Posts: 303; Member since: 20 Jul 2011)
fanboy, do you ever quit? android, low end? Galaxy Nexus>iphone 4s. hell, the Droid Razr>iPhone 4s
41. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
The razor is already a sales flop. They may not even do 100K in November.
46. readingthissh1t (Posts: 303; Member since: 20 Jul 2011)
you put sales over quality? may I ask why?
48. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
If it was a quality product it would sell. Fact it doesn't sell shows it's not a good product.
43. SleepingOz (unregistered)
Yeah high quality that doesn't even recognize your sim card and drain your battery in less than no time. High quality indeed!
44. remixfa (Posts: 13938; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
you have it backwards. iOS = low quality OS sold at a premium. Android = high quality extremely functional OS sold at a discount.
49. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
Yes we know that's how market economics work. Better products are sold cheaper while low quality crap is sold at a premium price.
Lol you're delusional.
40. speckledapple (Posts: 879; Member since: 29 Sep 2011)
I think he is right, it has just begun. I think the future of smartphones is going to get crazy full of sprawl. It has not happened yet. So far it has just been between Apple and Google, with Google taking market share while Apple taking the money. With Microsoft and Nokia with them in lock and step, I can really see a shift with them getting both profit and market share. That would offset the two way race right now. That also means that all other OS chances like Blackberry (sorry), webOS (sorry), and anything else would simply just fall into the background. It will probably continue like that for a while until each area gets so large that is fragments into many larger pieces and pushes into something else entirely.
The next few years are going to be fun for the consumer.