Global smartphone shipments forecast to decline this year, rebound in 2024

According to International Data Corporation's (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker (via CNET), a weak economy and higher inflation will lead to weaker smartphone shipments this year. The latest forecast calls for a 3.2% decline which is more severe than the 1.1% drop in shipments predicted back in February. For all of 2023, 1.17 billion smartphones are expected to ship.

Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, said, "If 2022 was a year of excess inventory, 2023 is a year of caution. While everyone wants to have inventory ready to ride the wave of the inevitable recovery, no one wants to be stuck holding it too long. This also means the brands that take the risk -- at the right time -- can potentially reap great rewards of share gain."

There is some good news in the report. IDC expects the smartphone market to bounce back as soon as next year with a 6% year-over-year increase in smartphone shipments forecast for 2024. Despite the rebound expected next year, IDC points out that in all markets, consumer demand is recovering at a much slower pace than analysts were predicting.

Consumers are getting more options in the foldable phone sector says IDC's Ryan Reith, group vice president, Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. While Reith says that the number of new foldables hitting the market is a positive step forward, unfortunately, this is taking place during a period of weakness in shipments. The IDC group VP said, "We continue to see more foldable designs in the market, which is a great technological step forward for the industry, but the timing is unfortunate."

Recently we've seen new clamshell foldables from Oppo and Vivo and Motorola is splitting the 2023 Razr clamshell into two separate models. There will be the premium Razr 40 Ultra (known in the U.S. as the Razr+) and the more affordable Razr 40 (which in the U.S. will be the Razr). The new Razrs will be unveiled tomorrow.

IDC expects smartphone shipments to get back on track next year as we already pointed out. It also sees shipments rising in 2025, 2026, and in 2027 with shipments that year closing in on 1.4 billion units worldwide.