What will the smartphone market look like in 2018? IDC says it knows

What will the smartphone market look like in 2018? IDC says it knows
What does the future hold for the smartphone market? Research firm IDC thinks it knows the answer based on its data. First, we should point out that the company expects 1.2 billion smartphones to be shipped globally this year, a 21% improvement over the 1 billion shipped last year. By 2018, IDS sees 1.8 billion smartphones shipping, for a 12.3% annual growth rate from 2013 through that year.

While the number of smartphones getting shipped is going up, IDC sees the price going down. From an average selling price of $314 this year (down 6.3% from $335 last year), prices should continue dropping to reach an average selling price of $267 in 2018. That could be due to a decline in component parts, or thanks to heavy demand for low-end models in emerging markets.

IDC expects Android to have a controlling 80.2% share of the global smartphone market this year, dropping slightly to 77.6% in 2018, due to the percentage growth of Windows Phone devices. From $254 this year, the average selling price of an Android phone will be down to $215 in 2018, according to IDC.

Even with larger sized-iPhone models rumored to be coming to market this year, IDC sees iOS with a 13.7% share of the global smartphone market, down from the 14.8% slice of the pie that the iPhone owned in 2013. From a 20% year-over-year growth rate in 2014, the iPhone's annual growth rate will slump to 6.1% by 2018, more in line with the entire smartphone market.

Windows Phone is expected to show strong 29.5% growth in 2014. From 43.3 million units shipped this year, equaling 3.5% of the market, 115.3 million Windows Phone flavored handsets are expected to ship by 2018. That represents a stellar compounded annual growth rate of 28.1%.

Lastly, BlackBerry is forecast to ship 49.6% fewer handsets this year, dropping to 9.7 million units. IDC forecasts further declines until just 4.6 million BlackBerry smartphones are shipped by 2018. That represents a negative 25% compounded annual growth rate from 2013 through 2018.

We can all check back at the end of 2018 to see how IDC fared with its predictions.

via: BGR



1. Johnnokia

Posts: 1158; Member since: May 27, 2012

In 2009, who expected Nokia or BlackBerry dominance to demise in 2014 ??? The time Nokia had 40% market share and BlackBerry 21%. In 2009, Does anyone predict Android market share would reach to more than 75% in 2013?

20. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

The nokia demise in market share trajectory is a result of a single mistake. Nokia hiring a CEO who want nokia to fail so that his ex-bos (microsoft) can take over nokia cheaply. As for BB, is because BB have no ability to innovate and easily satisfied with a single (BBM) success. As for Apple, john ivy is a guy who did one lucky job and stuck with it. He can't think of any other idea for iphone, stuck forever. If apple didn't oust sir johny, apple will go down with him.

22. Johnnokia

Posts: 1158; Member since: May 27, 2012

100% Agree with you. Nokia was killed by Stephen Flop

36. Liveitup

Posts: 1798; Member since: Jan 07, 2014

Elop did not Kill Nokia, why don't people ever research the situation and realize that Nokia was to late to transition from Symbian. If anything Nokia turned the corner with WP. They were growing again when the D&S department was sold to MS.

38. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

Because.. Elop DID kill nokia. Nokia is not late to transition from Symbian. Meego is great, but Elop try to limit Meego only to some country. Elop use WP that no body want to buy. Samsung sell 30x more android than samsung sell WP. HTC sell 100x more android than HTC sell WP. Elop is a fool, and he did kill nokia

40. Liveitup

Posts: 1798; Member since: Jan 07, 2014

Nokia is not dead, it is very much alive the D&S employees at Nokia now works for Microsoft. When Nokia ran into trouble it was because of the rise of Android and iOS and Nokia late change from feature to smartphones. Selling Meamo devices in select markets was not going to keep. Microsoft even had to help out Nokia Financially Nokia head above water. When Elop came on board the damage was already done, realize this Ollie is to blame for Nokia's pain early on not Elop.

2. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

Everytime I see a comment from analyst like IDC I was really surprised. I was wondering how did they do the market research. I do believe apple is peaking, and will going down in percentage, and eventually in device sold number, based on they (apple / johny ivy) were trapped in the previous glory. But Android with multiple vendor, and great (google) leadership really have a bright future. How can they slump to 77.6% and beaten by microsoft? Really?? How?? From where I stand, I see microsoft is strugling. nokia were in red because wp is not successfull, nokia even has to release android to help their financial problem. and there's lots of microsoft wp problem. How can WP be able to gain more market share? About BB, I don't think BB can survive until 2018. BB would be considered lucky if they could still be selling phone in 2016. BB need to join android bandwagon ASAP just like nokia did.

3. -box-

Posts: 3991; Member since: Jan 04, 2012

I agree with apple having peaked, especially with hits recent foolhardy moves like acquiring Beats, a similarly overpriced overhyped tech company like itself. I see a duopoly between Android and Windows Phone, about 55% android, 35% WP (maybe even 50% android and 40% WP), 9% apple, and the rest a mix of whatever else.

4. -box-

Posts: 3991; Member since: Jan 04, 2012

Its, not hits^

5. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

How come? I see nokia (now microsoft) strugling to sell high end WP, and need android to help to stay exist. How come WP will beat android? Microsoft have been playing catch up with Google, and the new WP 8.1 is not even close to ICS 4.0.

11. ihavenoname

Posts: 1693; Member since: Aug 18, 2013

If M$ is lucky, they have triopoly with Android and iOS (I don't see it likely, though). I'm almost sure that WP will never go over 10% marketshare and iOS won't go under it.

12. arenanew

Posts: 286; Member since: Dec 30, 2013

ics 4.0 is totaaly waste drain battery fast . copy from symbian no voice based service like cortana and no offline navigation las most not have genuine ofice reader and edit plus full of security issue

37. Liveitup

Posts: 1798; Member since: Jan 07, 2014

Shows you have no idea of what you speak. Android started copying WP with ICS 4.0. That was when Android started going Flat. WP is the best native OS on the market at the core. Not only will WP pass 115 million it will grow a lot faster. IDC said Android will have 77 % in 2018 because of low cost devices, what IDC has not factored in is the fact that WP is now cheaper than Android to manufacture than Android now. More and more OEM'S will be making WP devices going forward.

39. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

Really? Cmon... Nokia failed to sell high end product with WP. 85% Nokia product were the cheap WP. And nokia can't even sell lower price WP device to some limitation in WP, thus Nokia X with Android is set to do the cheap job. More manufacture?? Because microsoft bribe them. These manufacture just using the microsoft money, and don't need to do any risk. @Liveitup, be realistic.

41. Liveitup

Posts: 1798; Member since: Jan 07, 2014

In an industry dominated by Android and iOS which almost killed BB, destroyed web OS and Symbian WP is rising. People are more likely to try a new OS from a budget level thats why WP sells many at budget level. People who buy most WP at high end are those who sort them out. Thats is not to say that it is not a great OS cause it is . As word spreads about the OS you will see that more and more highend devices will be sold, as is happening now. Licensing free is a business decision just like Android did how is that bribing?. A business decision and bribing are two completely different this.

44. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

Microsoft venture into mobile is already a decade plus. Windows Mobile is a success, it manage to grab 10%+ market share. WP is a failure. It always says it will be better with the next release such WP7.5 will fix it all, WP 8 will fix it all, WP 8.5 will fix it all. Apparently, market are getting tired of microsoft.

45. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Uh no, Android started going flat with Honeycomb....a design which was partly based on a former WebOS guy they hired.....before WP launched. http://allthingsd.com/20110201/exclusive-googles-android-design-expert-outlines-the-vision-behind-honeycomb/ http://allthingsd.com/20100527/exclusive-palm-loses-mobile-design-guru-matias-duarte/ See. This is what I be talking about. You keep repeating WP, Tiles, is copied when others were going flat before or doing it before WP. WebOS 2.0 comes to mind... .Those that dont know or forget, ICS is really Honeycomb but for phones, and Honeycomb got scrapped quick and Google went full steam ahead with ICS for all devices. Honeycomb was for tablets only.

46. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Also...how long has Google Now been in development? Google was going to the flat look before WP launched. More info about HC, Holo design: http://www.developer-tech.com/news/2014/apr/17/googles-android-50-design-focused/

14. ihavenoname

Posts: 1693; Member since: Aug 18, 2013

You are so delusional. WP can hardly even hit 5%. And when M$ removes Nokia brand, they are facing a big trouble.

6. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

I would be surprised if Windows Phone has more than 3-4% of the market in 2018. The good people at Nokia will leave over the next few years and this business unit will struggle. Nokia's camera advantage is all but gone now and more Android phones have shutter buttons. I just don't see any way for Microsoft to gain a lot of share unless they leverage their Windows monopoly and make Apple/Android devices not work with Windows anymore.

7. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

exactly!!! I agree 100% with you. I just don't understand why IDC could have tell us for 4 years that WP will win the race. are they on drug or bribe?

9. NokiaFTW

Posts: 2072; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

You can't predict anything dude. WP may actually be where IDC predicts it to be in 2018. Or it could still be at 3-4 % as you say. Or it could be even higher than anybody predicted. Or it may not be alive at all. Symbian had 40% marketshare on 2010. And by end of 2013, it had less than 1%. Nothing can be predicted in the smartphone world. We don't what may happen tomorrow, let alone 4 years later.

16. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

Yet somehow everyone knew when Nokia went with Microsoft Windows Phone, that they were doomed.

32. NokiaFTW

Posts: 2072; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

Nokia were already going downhill with Symbian. WP IMO is the best thing that happened to Nokia. They were cash strapped before Elop's entrance, and now under MS, they have all the financial backing to produce any phone they want. But of course, different people have different thinking.

42. Liveitup

Posts: 1798; Member since: Jan 07, 2014

Wow you must work at Nokia. You do realize for many OEM's it is now more expensive to make an Android device than it is to make a WP because of patents fees ranging from $5-15 for every Android device. Android got popular because it was extremely cheap and License free WP is in that position.

43. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

If microsoft ask android OEM $$$ and give the same patent free for WP, Microsoft will be in the courtroom again for abusing it's power/patent. Just like it did 20 years ago....

8. fzacek

Posts: 2486; Member since: Jan 26, 2014

I think the average price of a mobile phone will be less than that in 2018. Rather than being linear, I think the decrease in price of smartphones is slightly exponential. Even so, by 2018 every low end smartphone will have a 1080p display, or at least 720p...

10. WahyuWisnu

Posts: 1001; Member since: May 29, 2014

agree.. in 2018 US$120, 720p, 16GB/1GB US$200, 1080p, 32GB/2GB

13. phonemonkey

Posts: 168; Member since: Feb 13, 2012

WRONG Completely wrong iPhone is going to sell the larger iphones like hotcakes MARK THESE WORDS HOMIE

15. fzacek

Posts: 2486; Member since: Jan 26, 2014

Nope, because that large iPhone will have a very premium price point of $1,000...

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