What will the smartphone market look like in 2018? IDC says it knows
While the number of smartphones getting shipped is going up, IDC sees the price going down. From an average selling price of $314 this year (down 6.3% from $335 last year), prices should continue dropping to reach an average selling price of $267 in 2018. That could be due to a decline in component parts, or thanks to heavy demand for low-end models in emerging markets.
IDC expects Android to have a controlling 80.2% share of the global smartphone market this year, dropping slightly to 77.6% in 2018, due to the percentage growth of Windows Phone devices. From $254 this year, the average selling price of an Android phone will be down to $215 in 2018, according to IDC.
Even with larger sized-iPhone models rumored to be coming to market this year, IDC sees iOS with a 13.7% share of the global smartphone market, down from the 14.8% slice of the pie that the iPhone owned in 2013. From a 20% year-over-year growth rate in 2014, the iPhone's annual growth rate will slump to 6.1% by 2018, more in line with the entire smartphone market.
Windows Phone is expected to show strong 29.5% growth in 2014. From 43.3 million units shipped this year, equaling 3.5% of the market, 115.3 million Windows Phone flavored handsets are expected to ship by 2018. That represents a stellar compounded annual growth rate of 28.1%.
Lastly, BlackBerry is forecast to ship 49.6% fewer handsets this year, dropping to 9.7 million units. IDC forecasts further declines until just 4.6 million BlackBerry smartphones are shipped by 2018. That represents a negative 25% compounded annual growth rate from 2013 through 2018.
We can all check back at the end of 2018 to see how IDC fared with its predictions.