Poll results: How many Watch units do you think Apple will sell this year?


Analysts are all over the place when it comes to predicting the Apple Watch sales for the year, ranging from 8 million to more than 40 million units, with the average consensus being 22.47 million, as you can see in the snippet below.

Our quick back-of-the-napkin calculations indicate that Apple could sell 20-30 million timepieces this year, based on polls that one in ten iPhone users has expressed willingness to buy it when it lands. With about 300 million compatible iPhones currently in circulation - iPhone 5, 5c, 5s, 6 and 6 Plus - this returns 30 million potential buys at the upper range of the prediction.

Naturally, not everyone that expressed interest is going to buy it, but even if Apple sells "just" 20 million or so, when you multiply such a number with at least $200 profit per timepiece, that still returns a princely $4 billion in Apple's cash coffers this year from the Watch alone, vindicating each and every cent that went into its R&D in the last four years, if all goes well.

The company is being pretty conservative with the initial batch, though, allegedly ordering 3 million Watch units to suppliers, treading the waters lightly. If it senses real interest, though, these numbers could quickly go into overdrive. The majority of our 1713 respondents thinks that Apple will sell less than 10 million watches this year, while about 30% say sales will be between 10-30 million, where the average analyst forecast lies, and just about 10% predict more than 30 million Apple Watch units sold, which is at the high end of the clairvoyance spectrum.

How many Watch units do you think Apple will sell this year?

Less than 10 million
59.37%
10-30 million
30.82%
More than 30 million
9.81%

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34 Comments

1. AlikMalix unregistered

Apple fan here, but my guess is all these "anal-ysts" are overestimating the amount of interest for a smartwatch. Apple isn't on a different planet - if android market share couldnt sell that much, what makes you think Apple would? I think it will sell a lot, but defenately not in the tens of millions - maybe few at the most... Sorry... I may only buy one if Apple doesnt bring back 4" iPhone - I'm keeping my 5s for longer and getting the Apple Watch for Apple Pay function primarily... the rest of features is a bonus...

2. AlikMalix unregistered

I meant ... maybe a few MILLION at the most .... (come on, I'm still an Apple fan)

14. jesusnexo unregistered

you dont understand the influence apple has on people, months ago, paying with my nexus seemed weird. Now with apple pay i hear alot "omg androids can do that too?" im not hating on apple, but if we want this technology to be mainstream(i really hope so) apple NEEDS to sell well.

3. revampmybrain unregistered

There are much better looking smart watches out or on the way that are also less expensive. And just like Android users, just because someone has an expensive iPhone 6 plus for example, doesn't mean they can afford a smart watch on top of that. If they do sell well, it will mostly be the sport (reasonably priced) version.

12. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

Dude, $300 to $500 bucks is not a lot of money for a lot of folks. I know regular people who spend that money on belts from Hermes or purses. There are many bracelets that do absolutely nothing that cost this much. You ever heard of Beats audio or Jordan's? Those headphones cost up to $300 or $400 bucks and people are buying them like hot cakes. A low end stainless steel Movado watch with its off the shelf movement hits the $500 plus range. I do agree that the sport version will sell the most, but the stainless will have a sizable market share. Don't under estimate how much people will spend on fashion.

21. sgodsell

Posts: 7425; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

You are forgetting the largest demographic of people in the US as well as other countries around the world will buy their smart phones on a contract. Not to mention there is no contract for the Apple Watches, so people have to shell out more money to buy a companion device that still requires a smart phone in the first place. Also the Apple Watch requires an iPhone 5 or higher to use. All this comes into play when purchasing as well.

4. darkkjedii

Posts: 31274; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

It's obvious who the less than 10 million crowd was lol. Hopeful huh?

5. wando77

Posts: 1168; Member since: Aug 23, 2012

There can't be over 10 million tards like you out there surely?

6. AlikMalix unregistered

Dark, I didnt vote, lol... If Apple Watch finds over 10mil customers - I would be happy I was wrong, but definitely surprised..

7. darkkjedii

Posts: 31274; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I say 11-12 million Alik

8. cdm283813

Posts: 424; Member since: Jan 10, 2015

I went middle ground because I know what those Apple fanboys are thinking; a new Apple toy. If the Apple logo was not on the body it will definitely be under 1 million.

26. AlikMalix unregistered

I don't think Ive noticed any Apple logos on the device - so according to your logic it shouldn't sell at all. Right?

9. LiquidGalaxy

Posts: 332; Member since: Jul 03, 2013

As usual the Android fans vote has been cast, and once again they will remain silent once Apple sells a cr@p ton of these things. I lol everytime..

10. darkkjedii

Posts: 31274; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Happens every time.

17. j2001m

Posts: 3061; Member since: Apr 28, 2014

Thing is if they called it the Apple eye or ieye or something like that then It will have sold, they called it Apple watch, crap last time I looked no iphome user wear watchs, I mean the ones that buy it because it cool and there mate got one and so on, that the problem, wrong name, a good name will have been like htc called there crap thing, that looks way better and cooler the the Apple watch, my iPhone users mate like the htc to there find out its not Apple, they think the Apple watch looks crap and even more so if they not up it being apple

11. Metropolis75

Posts: 197; Member since: Aug 28, 2012

I have a Moto 360 and I can see why it has only sold what it has. It's not for everyone. I love mine, but dropping $299 on a smart watch is a little hard to swallow. I can only imagine paying the premium for various Apple watches.

13. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

It's my understanding that the original iPhone sold around 6 million the first year. With that said, I can see the watch selling something similiar. I did say 10 to 15 million before, but I had to realize that this is a first gen product. However, this will out sell Android Wear during opening weekend lol!

15. kerginaldo17 unregistered

Not sell

16. jesusnexo unregistered

you clearly underestimate apple

18. Moose

Posts: 418; Member since: Jan 05, 2015

I might be interested in a watch that monitors my health but not as a source of information or to use any of the apps I can readily access on my phone. I bought a phone last year with a 5.5 inch screen because I got tired of peering at the small screens on an iPhone. There is no way I want to spend any time looking at an even smaller screen (on a watch). People won't buy these watches because they are useful, but just to be 'cool' not a motivation that has ever moved me.

19. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2240; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

My guess: Sport = 16 million Watch = 8 million Edition = 3 million That adds up to under 30 million. Pretty damn good year for 1st year smartwatch.

20. sgodsell

Posts: 7425; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Creediddy, you think 3 million $10,000 Apple Gold watches are going to sell in the first year. That equates to $30 billion dollars made in the first year for only 3 million gold smart watches. You are out in left field if you think Apple is going to sell 3 million gold smart watches. Also 16 million of the aluminum sport editions is too high, and that is with a rubberized band. You have to add $200 onto that price if you want leather. People will look for sure, but the vast majority will not buy.

22. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2240; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

Just predictions. You have to remember will be 8.5 months left once the Apple Watches release. Their biggest months will be 2nd Qrter and 4th Qrter (Holiday Season). Preorders will at least exceed 1-2 million before launch. I predicted 27 million by end of 2015. That is roughly 3 million per month or 9 million per quarter. Regarding Edition....There are at least 3 million or more people in this world that make the money to buy an Apple Watch. Apple's target market for the Edition is $500k-750k household and up. You also have to factor in that their may be 3rd Party vendors that will manufacturer cheaper bands. Only if this is allowed by Apple. There will be no need to buy their bands if this happens. Although the quality won't be the same as Apple's. I am more optimistic rather than you are thinking pessimistic.

25. sgodsell

Posts: 7425; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

So then tell me why did Apple only put orders in for only 3 million smart watches. Especially when earlier at the beginning of the year Apple was saying that they were putting in an order of 5-6 million smart watches. Apple downgraded their initial order. Its not like they couldn't make 5-6 million smart watches. If they can make and sell 74 million iPhones in a quarter, then they can easily make 5-6 million watches.

27. AlikMalix unregistered

You may have a point, but since when are Apple rumors became what Apple "said".

24. thxultra

Posts: 457; Member since: Oct 16, 2014

I am really looking forward to the apple watch but think your numbers are way to high. I do however agree with you that most people will buy the sport model. Eventhough it has just the rubber band I think people will go with it to save money and buy a third party band for way cheaper then a apple band. I do expect sales of the watch edition to be closer to the sport one because people will want the saphire screen over the glass... I don't see much of a market for the edition watch. I would be surprised if they sell 20,000 of those. My Guess Sport - 6 milliion Watch - 4 million Edition - 20,000

23. PhoneCritic

Posts: 1354; Member since: Oct 05, 2011

This watch will sell like there's no tomorrow. The reason being is that Apple is recognized as an American Icon ( a true american company even though it manufactures everything overseas and stores it's billions overseas and not back into the American economy- Hate these corporate loop holes) and Americans will buy it because it says Apple. Doesn't matter that there are other devices that do the same thing for cheaper since they are from various foreign manufactures they will not sell as well to anything Apple creates. This is Apple inc. time to be on top as every company has had their time and then some other company comes and dethrones them. We saw it with Nokia, Motorola, Blackberry, Samsung and now it's Apples time Tomorrow it maybe Xiamomi, ZTE, etc... So,Again Apple is going to sell a boat load of these until a new generation of young people come along that are not so enamored with Apple then begins the downward spiral and a new company becomes king. way of the world and business

28. AlikMalix unregistered

Why the hell do you Apple hating twits keep insinuating that the only reason half a billion people by iphones is because of the logo or "American company bill crap... 1. Did you know millions ion millions tried andrpid or had android and switched to Apple? 2. If American ios market share is due to Apple being American, how do u explain Japan, China, and the nearly 50/50 in Europe? 3. Did you know that an iPhone can get everything done just like android? This multi window and multitasking can appeal to a few nerds but the rest of the world are trying to get their daily tasks done without tinkering - iphone has enabled that for hundred of millions without the worry about enough specs or how many inrecognizable pixels are crammed in. Everyone I know that switch from android are happy with their choice - NOT A f**k GIVEN ABOUT LOGO OR PRESTIGE!!!! I should ignore you completely - but I guess theres a little fun in ripping your logic apart.

29. rick_mobile

Posts: 358; Member since: Dec 13, 2010

WRONG. I have met many idiots that buy Apple products JUST because it's apple. Apple seems to do a good job marketing with the Snob-appeal fallacy. One of my co-workers was telling me he is about to buy a mac, I said why a mac. his answer: "I don't know, I always wanted a Mac, they look nice".*face palm* Also, my best friends is an apple technician, he says that he gets the stupidest people asking for support about the stupidest things, and breaking their phones for the stupidest reasons; (and I quote) " but those idiots pay my bills so..". I've had 2 iPhones and recently switched to the Galaxy Note 4, and man was I missing out. I'm sorry to say this because I used to have iPhones but they seems like a product for idiots. I'm not saying this is everybody that uses Apple, but certainty a noticeable percentage. Apple sells outdated hardware at a premium price. There is nothing special about iOS, it is just a mediocre shiny product, advertised very well.

30. AlikMalix unregistered

So, Buying a product that proved itself again and again is "WRONG"? I buy BMW's and Porsche because they're BMW's and Porsche - Because trying a Lexus Sports Sedan is not the same as a BMW Sports Sedan, they have their improvements but the true driver car for me is BMW and older Porsches - I buy those because they have been proven to deliver the best A to B experience and reliability when trashed on the track or a twisty road. Lexus may be a good car but the feedback isn't there, the acceleration isn't linear, and there's something wrong with the gear ratios setup that makes you itch for the extra push when there's none. I have tried Android everytime it's upgrade time and I found my experience with Android to be a nuisance (but that's because of my needs - not yours) I also know three people that thought they were using iPhones when in fact it was ANDROID Samsung phones. Ask around - most people have no idea how to do s**t on their Android phones. I love engaging into converstaions about people's phones - 95% of Android users have no idea what Google Now is, 100% know what Siri is and 50% use it for one thing or another... They use facetime, they use I also get stupid questions from ANDROID users like, How do I facetime on my phone, or how do I use Siri... or they say fan-boy catch phraises like "I use android because all the Apps are free, on Apple you have to pay for Facebook" or my favorite so far " I have to use Android because I use G-mail and other Google Services" - iOS is fluent in all Apple, Google, and even Windows services. Other questions "How do I keep my _____ (android) phone from lagging like your 5S", "How do I keep my battery from dying overnight", "How do pair my _____ android phone with iPad (everyone owns ipads apperently)" Look I know a couple Android guys who know their Android, like I know my iOS - but considering that 80-90% of all smartphone owners are basically facebookers and twitters whether they're Apple users or Android users they're smartphone dumb. But I wish I had a friend who was an Android Store technician, but oh wait... there's no Android Store... At least if you own an iPhone you can get answers regardless how simple - with Android you're stuck asking cousin Rick_ who's probably an HTC fan and has no clue how to Samsung... (or vice-versa)... Apple sells hardware that runs as smooth as Newest Android hardware, on top of that they provide free assistance, and resale value to boot... on top of that the best ecosystem (not my words but of many tech sites).. on top of that guaranteed updates/support for at least 3 years... on top of that apps like Find My Friends, Remote Lock, iMovie, and many other exclusive features including all Google Services... But wow, you can change fonts and icons.. woohoo... and android finally doesn't lag (after you cram double the specs of an iphone) woohoo.... your phone advanced!!!!

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