Piper Jaffrey is slashing Apple iPhone 6s sales forecast: now predicts sales dropping for the first time in 2016


Investment firm Piper Jaffrey represented by analyst Gene Munster has lowered its predictions for iPhone 6s sales for the March quarter of 2016, after three suppliers have allegedly confirmed a 10% to 15% decline in component orders, and after a Nikkei report went even further by suggesting a 30% drop in supplier orders.

"While Apple has repeatedly stated in the past that the changes in orders from any given supplier are not indicative of the health of the iPhone business overall, we believe that the combination of three supplier guidedowns (Dialog Semiconductor, Qorvo and Cirrus Logic) as well as the Nikkei story suggesting production cuts from last week are too much collective evidence to not adjust iPhone expectations," Munster writes in a note.

All of this leads to a revised estimate for sales of 55 million iPhones in Apple's second fiscal quarter (the quarter ending March 2016, Q2 2016 in Apple's books), down from Piper Jaffrey's initial forecast for iPhone sales of 62.5 million. In comparison, Apple sold 61.17 million iPhones in the same quarter of 2015, a number that indicates a significant blow to iPhone sales in 2016.

Piper Jaffrey's forecast for June quarter (Q3 2016 in Apple's books) iPhone sales has also been revised down from 48.5 million units to 45 million. This would be another year-on-year decline from the 48.046 million units officially sold in Q3 2015.

In the just ended Holiday quarter - traditionally Apple's strongest - the investment firm expects Apple to have sold between 75 and 76 million iPhones. In comparison, in the same period a year ago, the company recorded iPhone sales of 74.468 million, so if the actual results are close to the predicted ones, it will be a flat quarter for Apple.

Finally, the firm predicts Apple Watch sales will stand at around 6 million in the Holiday quarter ending December 2015. This would be a remarkable result, and even more so, Munster boldly predicts 2017 to be a "breakout year" for the Watch: he expects 20 million units to ship in 2016, and 40 million more in 2017.

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33 Comments

1. GreenMan

Posts: 2697; Member since: Nov 09, 2015

Well, to me it makes perfect sense cause iPeople are already expecting iPhone 7... BTW, that Piper Jaffrey sounds like a genuine Fandroid, LOLz...!

11. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Really? September is over 8 months away. Has nothing to do with it. maybe for some. But its only Apple's 2nd quarter with the phone on sale. That same thing happened with the 5C. Big sales in the first few weeks and then it died an Apple announcing cutbacks in the next quarter afterwards.

17. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

The headline sounds like we're in the middle of the year 2016 while where just 12 days into it.

12. marorun

Posts: 5029; Member since: Mar 30, 2015

Sound like a fandroid based on what? he say negative stuff about iphone sales?

31. coldspring22

Posts: 349; Member since: Feb 28, 2015

All top analysts for AAPL are pretty much predicting lower or at best stagnant iphone sales for 2016. If Piper is fandroid, so are all top analysts for AAPL. Gee whole world must be going fandroid!

2. darkkjedii

Posts: 30960; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Damn Apple, better get that iPhone 7 on out, and make it a homer.

3. shiftt

Posts: 333; Member since: May 03, 2015

So either: 1. Everyone is realizing Apple is charging them $650 for sub par hardware and lacking software so they can make you upgrade every 1-2 years. 2. Android is winning. 3. Society is starting to not wrap around having the "latest" and "greatest" fashion statements(iPhones). 4. The economy is collasping... I'm going with #4.

19. wando77

Posts: 1168; Member since: Aug 23, 2012

I would go with 1, 2 and 4

24. AlikMalix unregistered

Ofcourse you would.

20. Wiencon

Posts: 2278; Member since: Aug 06, 2014

Or maybe people see that 5S and 6 are still running like champs and they feel no need for upgrading

27. ibend

Posts: 6747; Member since: Sep 30, 2014

or, faith in humanity restored

30. 47AlphaTango

Posts: 715; Member since: Sep 27, 2015

Or maybe they just don't wanna get the 6s and 6s plus. And would rather wait for the 7.

4. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

This is a good thing. Wall Street always put up these rediculously expectations on Apple, then get dissapointed with they hit only slightly below expectations.

5. jove39

Posts: 2145; Member since: Oct 18, 2011

People are keeping their phones longer than before. Apple's biggest sales number come from annual upgrades. I'd really want carriers to get rid of subsidized iPhones and then see how many people shell out full price upfront.

8. tedkord

Posts: 17295; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

It doesn't matter, as the leasing programs are the same thing. And even if carriers get rid if then, Apple had its own lease program. Despite fans protestations that Apple users are ultra wealthy, Apple knows that if people are forced to pay $700-1000 upfront for their phone, sales will drop pretty drastically.

28. ibend

Posts: 6747; Member since: Sep 30, 2014

or just remove those 16 GB option and see how much they sell.. since the 16GB is their most selled product (I guess those people didnt do that much with their phone, since they can manage to live with only 16GB :-/ )

32. coldspring22

Posts: 349; Member since: Feb 28, 2015

You got your wish! All carrier subsidy has already disappeared with Att and Sprint ending 2 year contracts. All consumers are now exposed to sticker shock at end of their 2 year lease, when they can keep existing iphone and see much lower monthly payment or upgrade to new iphone and pay much more per month.

6. kaleo

Posts: 6; Member since: Sep 03, 2014

AH! but apple has made too much money already specifically on iphone sales, they don't even spend much on Advertising anymore....... everything has ups and downs, we just have to adapt to those moments. SIMPLE: Slash d prices of the iphone 6s(LOL!) by 30% and watch magic happen

14. marorun

Posts: 5029; Member since: Mar 30, 2015

Yeah make it to a more realistic price and its will sell.

7. Tziggy14

Posts: 624; Member since: Sep 02, 2014

That may work but that will dilute the value of thd iPhone brand if they slash prices.

16. marorun

Posts: 5029; Member since: Mar 30, 2015

Well many of my client upgrading iphone to a new iphone say its may be the last one they do because they feel they are getting cheated on the price. So making a few step back and come back to a more realistic price may in fact help.

10. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

So much for PA article on the cut back in component orders isnt always because of low sales. Then why else would you br dropping component orders? LOW SALES. Especially since we are only in Apple's 2nd quarter. So if they are cutting orders, sales must be slow. The first quarter for them is always big, due to the Black Friday sales and XMAS holidays.But cutting orders in the very next quarter has to be for sales. As it has been shown, sales always drop off for the iPhone in the their 2nd quarter, but usually only by roughly 50%, then another 50% by the 3rd quarter because its time for the newer model to arrive and many will hold off until the announcement, knowing the previous model will drop $100 in cost on retail. Also with carriers dropping subsidized options, getting an iPhone could be harder for some which means even less sales. Then add that the S model of the iPhone is just a meager upgrade to the previous year, it really isn't worth buying til the 7 comes out. With all this money, Apple should make a new model every year, not every other year. With smartphone sales reach a peak, Apple will too feel the pinch. When Samsung announced that 2016 was goign to be a much tougher year, iFans probably thought Apple would be immune.

21. tedkord

Posts: 17295; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

You can't, in any universe, call 55 million units low sales. Lower than Apple anticipated, but still an amazing number.

33. coldspring22

Posts: 349; Member since: Feb 28, 2015

Wall street only cares about future growth. It doesn't matter what your current sales is because it's already in the past. If your future sales are going down as part of long term trend, investors will not be happy.

13. zeeBomb

Posts: 2318; Member since: Aug 14, 2014

4Nice

15. hado86

Posts: 177; Member since: Oct 15, 2014

Really phonearena this has been the story for many s models to date. I just hope the smaller iPhone 7 gets the same camera as 7 plus.

23. joevsyou

Posts: 1091; Member since: Feb 28, 2015

sorry but we just can't fit that IOS into that pity 4.6 inch. Can't wait how many features they stripe from the rumor 4inch one and still charge $600. I doubt they be able to fit a 16GB into it. 4gb is going to be standard

18. bucky

Posts: 3775; Member since: Sep 30, 2009

The price of an iPhone ON CONTRACT in Canada is $419 plus tax and 2 years. That's gotta be hitting them.

22. joevsyou

Posts: 1091; Member since: Feb 28, 2015

if they actuelly released something amazing and quit being little bitches and give what the consumer wants, they would get whole lot more sales... I like somethings about apple software wise, however hardware they lose every time,

25. tedkord

Posts: 17295; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

Overall, it's a really good product. It's not the best, no, but there's no area where it does poorly.

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