One analyst doesn't believe the iWatch is real

One analyst doesn't believe the iWatch is real
Given all of the reports, rumors, and speculation that has been surrounding the iWatch for the past year or so, this is one analyst opinion that hasn't popped up too often. Mike Oertli from OpTe.ch doesn't agree with the majority of the media, which are essentially saying that the iWatch release is inevitable. In fact, Oertli doesn't believe the iWatch is real at all.

The reasoning behind his theory is somewhat sound: Apple doesn't usually release products when the technology isn't ready. We have all come to grips with the fact that right now, component sizes and battery technology isn't where it needs to be in order to offer a true smartwatch that can act independently from a smartphone. Also, Apple tends to want to aim for high-class design, which is an entirely different beast in the watch market. A smartphone with premium design can be sold for $600 or so, but a watch with a premium design is hard to get under $1000, or so the idea from Oertli goes. 

The thing is that Oertli is conflating watches with smartwatches, and thinking that the two are going to be direct competitors. Premium watches tend to be extremely expensive because they are completely mechanical, and it costs quite a bit more to build multiple watch gears than it is to build a motherboard and processor. Also, smartwatches seems to be aiming at a much different consumer than a traditional watch, which is more of a fashion item, while smartwatches are much more functional. 

Oertli goes beyond his original, somewhat reasonable ideas, into the territory of complete error based on a misunderstanding of the topic he is confronting. He says that because the watch space is one where Apple's "one size fits all" philosophy simply cannot work, that it could be possible for Apple to be building a software ecosystem that supports 3rd party hardware. The trouble with this idea is that Apple's need to control the ecosystem top to bottom will always trump the "one size fits all" philosophy. 

source: OpTe.ch via BGR

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42 Comments

1. XperiaFanZone

Posts: 2279; Member since: Sep 21, 2012

Of course it's not real, it doesn't exist!

4. androiphone20

Posts: 1654; Member since: Jul 10, 2013

Yes, here's our very own ANALyst on Phonearena!

8. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

He could be right though, since this rumor has been out for like a year and a half now and no product design or even prototype has been heard of. For that matter, making something of this complexity would leak several different portions from several sources by now if it had gone into production for this year. If there is an iWatch, we probably will not see it in any good quantity this year because if the design hasn't taped out yet, there is no chance of them finalizing, building, testing and releasing if the manufacturer (foxconn or whoever they use) doesn't get started soon. If they had started, we likely would have had some small amount of info leak as to the fact that something has started. Also, if Apple has just sanctioned their Sapphire Glass factory to be built now, there is no chance of smart watches being released from Apple this year (assuming they use Sapphire) because using the current supply of Sapphire would likely lead to shortages.

10. androiphone20

Posts: 1654; Member since: Jul 10, 2013

Whether they'll use sapphire or not there's no better time to announce the iwatch than this year. I really don't see the Apple/GT Advanced deal falling far behind schedule. Yes, supply could fall short but is that really new? That could easily bring up sales figures up too.

12. XperiaFanZone

Posts: 2279; Member since: Sep 21, 2012

The product has not yet been finalised.

23. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

And I praise him

6. Arte-8800

Posts: 4562; Member since: Mar 13, 2014

Concept looking designs never exzist, to good to be true.

35. sam3k

Posts: 130; Member since: May 02, 2013

Apple doesn't know if they want to go ahead with the i watch, because samsung, sony and pebble has gone with all the good features and idias, trust me they are confuse.

39. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

He's ONE SMART analyst!

2. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

That is true about Apple not usually releasing products when the tech isnt ready.

9. willard12 unregistered

Apple Maps

14. ph00ny

Posts: 2055; Member since: May 26, 2011

First iPhone. Didn't even come with MMS capabilities. Same goes for copy and paste

18. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

But with the iPhone...Apple took some chances... Capacitive screen, the UI setup for smartphones, like you said a half baked phone. After the orig iPhone Apple has been kinda conservative. iPhone 4 with the display was probably the last time they went outside their norm.

25. superduper

Posts: 151; Member since: Oct 20, 2013

What are MMS?

27. tedkord

Posts: 17415; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

They are delicious candies that melt in your mouth, not in your hands.

38. darkkjedii

Posts: 31323; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

LMAOOOOO +1

40. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

and pinch to ZOOM

15. AfterShock

Posts: 4147; Member since: Nov 02, 2012

+10 Well done.

16. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

I dont think you understand the statement... Maps software has been around for years. Look how long it took Apple do do Maps. Look how long its taking Apple to do NFC. Its not about tech Apple has released that isnt ready....but tech overall that is still somewhat new Apple doesnt touch.

19. AfterShock

Posts: 4147; Member since: Nov 02, 2012

Are you saying Wills statement is lost on you? That really is a shame because its their tech, they made or bought it an released as is. That Ant issue was hardware.. Took another phone to be solved..idk.

22. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Look at what I said about Maps and NFC. The iPhone still doesnt have NFC yet. When did smart watches come out? Look how long it was between the first smartphone and the iPhone if you wanna talk about hardware. Apple did the Newton...before Palm did their first smartphone. The Newton failed miserably. Compare that to the release of the iPhone and iPad. Apple usually waits til they think the technology is mature enough. Very rarely do they just jump out there. By the time they do NFC...it will be when battery life issues, compatibility issues have been tested, gone thru by others... Like someone mentioned....look how long before they did an LTE phone.

29. Doakie

Posts: 2478; Member since: May 06, 2009

That might have been true when Steve Jobs was alive. Their releases have become more and more buggy each year. Which is fine I might say because getting a product out the door at 98% is fine if you can fix that last 2% through software patches. I'm just saying Apple isn't the perfectionist company it once was.

3. camera531

Posts: 346; Member since: Jun 30, 2012

He obviously never heard of the Moto 360, because that's a high end smart watch that has an outstanding design and very advanced new OS. Smart watches aren't (yet) meant to be full replacements of phones, which is why they aren't fully independent. This analysis is as dumb as claiming that the iPod nano isn't "ready" because it still relies on a computer to get iTunes.

13. KillgoreTroutTime

Posts: 433; Member since: Jan 06, 2014

So you have used a 360? Oh, you havnt? Then you know as much about it than I do, which is not much at all.

5. StraightEdgeNexus

Posts: 3689; Member since: Feb 14, 2014

Analyst or gambler of statements

41. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

He's jut another pathetic analyst ifanboy.

7. androiphone20

Posts: 1654; Member since: Jul 10, 2013

I can't say how far true this is but I can only say that this guy totally forgot to realise Apple's position right now. They just don't have the luxury to sit out innovations after six friggin years, Silicon Valley has changed. The new guard is heading for sexting apps not the old guard companies. Apple is one of those companies that have kept their cool to reach out to the new guard by out-innovating the competition. Innovate or die!

20. VZWuser76

Posts: 4974; Member since: Mar 04, 2010

All what you say is true, but the thing is, Apple does things on their timetable, not someone else's. They put it out when they want to, figuring loyal customers will wait. They were over a year behind others releasing an LTE compatible phone, but at that time they had also just brought the iPhone to other carriers, so that along with the relatively small LTE coverage bought them some time. But if they continue in that way of thinking that the market will wait for them, eventually it'll bite them. The same thing happened with BB. They assumed their user base would remain loyal and wait for them to catch up. While Apple is a dominant player, you only have to look at BB, Palm, and Nokia to see how quickly you can go from dominance to obscurity. Seven years after the iPhone and five after Android came onto the scene, Palm is gone, BB is on the brink, and Nokia is running at the bottom, relative to where they were before. Like they say, those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. And this is not to say I want Apple to fail. Competition breeds innovation and keeps stagnation at bay. But there are many on these comments sections saying how company X will never fall, and it's arrogance like that that ensures they will.

11. darkkjedii

Posts: 31323; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I already own the iWatch. Cook brought me one over last night, while I was feeing my pet blue whale. It's got a 12 in screen, 128,000,000 gigs of ram, and 469,000,000 ppi. 4 year battery life too. Then I woke up

17. AfterShock

Posts: 4147; Member since: Nov 02, 2012

I was going to ask where you bought your plankton at... Or if Capt Cook had brought some over. +10 humor.

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