IDC forecasts 0.6% growth in smartphone shipments, full year of decline for Apple

IDC forecasts 0.6% growth in smartphone shipments, full year of decline for Apple
According to IDC's latest data, worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.45 billion units with a year-over-year growth rate of 0.6% in 2016 – down significantly from the 10.4% growth they experienced last year. Still, sales of 4G smartphones have grown 21.3% year-over-year globally, with much of the growth coming from emerging markets.

IDC also notes that shipments of Google Pixel and Pixel XL are not at a point where Samsung and Apple should feel a significant impact during the fourth quarter. It compares Google's entry in the hardware business to that of Microsoft and its Surface line, saying it's too early to tell if relations with hardware manufacturing partners will be negatively impacted by it.

2016 will be the first full year of declining iPhone shipments, with a projected four quarters of year-over-year declines resulting in negative growth. Apple is challenged by low-cost competition at one side, and Google's entry into the premium space from the other. However, 2017 could see a return to growth if Apple manages to surprise audiences with its 10-year anniversary iPhone lineup.

Lastly, IDC projects a 79.1% decline in Windows Phone shipments, due to the diminishing number of manufacturers supporting the platform. While the Microsoft Surface phone could be a reality, Windows Phone's bare app ecosystem is still an obstacle for growth.

source: IDC

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16 Comments

1. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Isn't that the same company that predicted WM would hold 20% market share by 2018? How'd that prediction work out? Enough of that Kiko.......next year's gonna be make or break with me and Apple. Hopefully that fabled "10th Anniversary" iPhone is worth it, otherwise it's down to the Pixel 2 or Surface Phone (I call it Captain Vaporware....don't judge me!) as my primary options. It's not that Apple's getting stale to me, it's just I wanna see them TRY harder.....even a little would be nice.

2. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Inb4 obligatory "What about the 1+4/Axon 10/Xioami Mi 6/Galaxy S8/LG G6/insert notable phone from OEM #2464 here?" questions. Here's my routine. I usually buy HTC's flagship (not last year because of the camera) so I hold off until they unveil. Nothing against the others, I just enjoy HTC's approach to Android. By August I usually just go get another iPhone because I have the upgrade plan. If you're asking "But why upgrade every year?", it's simple...... I'm a showoff with too much money and not enough reasons to keep it. I don't have kids (and don't really want then either). Me and my girl stay in a nice apartment together, and we both make decent money. Lastly, I just like phones too much to stick with one for more than 12 months honestly. Beyond that it's just habit mostly......one flagship from each OS, and maybe a WM10 flagship if its a really great deal.

3. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

*them *And a bunch of other grammatical errors I don't feel like correcting because it's too late at night to care......

6. IronTech

Posts: 153; Member since: May 27, 2016

"I usually buy HTC's flagship" I skipped reading the rest.

7. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

It's cool.....I figured most would. Nothing wrong with skimming :).

4. meanestgenius

Posts: 21600; Member since: May 28, 2014

I'm with you on Apple trying harder. They literally have everything that they need to create a device that would "shock" the industry, and what they don't have on-hand, could be gained with their cash reserves. Now, let me explain before some Apple Apostle steps in and claims that I don't know what I'm talking about: Apple has more cash on hand than any tech company. It would be nothing for them to sink more of that cash into R&D and come up with an iOS toting device that shocks the industry. But they need to be willing to take the risks as well. Quit playing it safe, Apple. Give us a pimped out iPhone. Give us an iOS device where the industry can once again make the boasts about Apple that they did when they first hit the scene with the OG iPhone. Right now, Apple is just too comfortable...they're complacent now. And in this industry, that's a no-no. The Chinese OEM's are coming on STRONG. And for anyone that thinks that industry heavyweights like Apple or Samsung can't be replaced as the number one and two smartphone OEM's, you haven't been paying attention to the smartphone space. It can happen to ANY OEM.

8. palmguy

Posts: 974; Member since: Mar 22, 2011

Windows Mobile, Nokia, Blackberry, Palm(webOS R.I.P. :'( )

10. meanestgenius

Posts: 21600; Member since: May 28, 2014

Exactly. All were at the top of the smartphone game at one point or another. And now: Windows Mobile is barley at one percent market share (hopefully, the rumored Surface Phone can change its fortunes) Nokia sold their smartphone division to Microsoft and is now about to re-enter the smartphone market making Android powered handsets (I'm really interested to see what they bring forth. Good luck, Nokia!) BlackBerry no longer designs or manufactures smartphones, and is now a full-on software and services company that licenses their Secured Android Software (who would have ever thought that BlackBerry and Android would be on the same device!) to other OEM's and provides their apps and services cross-platform now, but their enterprise management software and their QNX software has them in the #1 spot in their respective markets. Palm is no longer in business, and WebOS is owned by LG now is on their televisions. Honorable mention: Motorola. Sold twice, and is now owned by Chinese smartphone/pc vendor Lenovo. Anything can and will happen in the smartphone world.

15. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

It doesn't matter how much money they have. Money can't buy you success. It can help you reach it. You still have to use said money to make a success with it. Right now Apple has the money, what they don't have is the right peopel in plac to take Apple to the next level. The fact is as long as Tim Cook is in change, Appel is going nowhere. They need a new visionary. They need someone like Microsoft's new CEO who actually sees we need to take the next step and Panos has it. Its called Convergence. Xerox and others did this when printers and fax machines reach their plateau. They converged them for that next progressive level and that is the ultimate ended. Almost everyone now sells a Multi-Function printer/scanner/fax/phone device. The next step for tablets and smartphone is convergence with the PC. The ability to have a PC in a smaller handheld device is the next evolution and Microsoft is going to take that leap as they have already with the Surface and Samsung has with the Note which supports keyboards and mice out the box, while IOS devices do not. Apple is behind and if they don't wakeup by 2020, they will be cooked (no pun intended)

16. meanestgenius

Posts: 21600; Member since: May 28, 2014

Re-read what I typed. When you're done, re-read it again. Keep re-reading it until you actually understand what I typed, because judging by your response, you don't understand what I typed. You're just posting more of your "I hate Apple, and here's why" rhetoric.

5. NoToFanboys

Posts: 3231; Member since: Oct 03, 2015

cue the stupid "Apple is doomed" comments

9. palmguy

Posts: 974; Member since: Mar 22, 2011

What goes up........

11. meanestgenius

Posts: 21600; Member since: May 28, 2014

Can and will eventually come down. NO ONE stays on top forever. But if they're smart, they can keep their name in the game.

12. dazed1

Posts: 789; Member since: Jul 28, 2015

Oh look its kiko007 the apple apologist white knight yet again, you know how they say, never give up, stand up for poor apple they need your help :( Sadly your random stuff don't pass so well here.

13. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Can you read? Of course you can't........ who are you again?

14. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

There are 7B people in the world. I guess it is safe to say nearly 50% of them own a smartphone, especially since carriers have basically forced us to buy them, because they aren't supporting anything else older anymore. But that doesn't mean sales have to go down; it just means they will reach a plateau. As long as an OEM can retain a certain amount of loyal customers (sheep or not), they have a rough idea how much moneythey can continue to make every year. Once the cap is reached, most like Apple, Samsung, Google and others will likely only see minor marketshare changes. For example, Windows once held a 95% marketshare. It now continues to fluctuate between 87 and 90% every year. Those small changes are companies who go and turn to Linux or Macs and then find out it was a waste of time and money and then they all come crawling back, or new companies that adopt Windows. The same will happen here. Basically people will start switching brands or platforms as other OEM start to do even better and the best like Apple, keep getting worse. The market of 3B users are already established. As they all get older and die off, younger ones will move in and buy in their place, keeping the numbers about the same. Basically it comes down to, who has the best software or hardware offering and who they can get to switch. Since OEM's like Apple, Google and Samsung have made it easy to switch between their phones with apps that move your data, those fluctuations will continue. The next OEM to fall on its face will be Apple. Because Microsoft is about to make the next move for the next huge step in mobile. That is going to be a phone that not only runs mobile apps, but will likely run full X86 apps. I mean, phones are already pushing 4k resolutions. So dockign a phone to a monitor or TV is already a reality. The next setp is providing a mobile platform fo Windows where I can carry the power of the desktop in my pocket and whip it out and use the typical mobile apps or flip the switch for Photoshop. In fact, I am betting there will be a phone eventually that will contain both an ARM and Intel chip inside and the X86 hardware is dormant until you boot Windows or whatever. Convergence devices are the next step. Just like we see with PC's now. Only Apple was the fool to not take the Surface seriously, just like Ballmer didn't take the iPhone seriously. The Surface now has near equal footing in market-share as the iPad. Bet Apple didn't see that coming. The Surface Phone is going to be the next smartphone evolution.

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