Analyst: Apple iPhone sales face ten years of "malaise" after next year

Analyst: Apple iPhone sales face ten years of
The future for the Apple iPhone after next year's 10th anniversary is not so bright according to a report by Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz. The banking and securities house expects sales of the iPhone to peak next year (Apple's 2018 fiscal year starts September 30th, 2017) with 245 million units rung up. That would be a 9% increase from the consensus estimate of 225 million units that FactSet is calling for during fiscal 2017. Uerkwitz says that next year will give Apple "one last growth hurrah" thanks to the 10th anniversary hoopla.

The analyst says that after next year, consumers will start to "drift away" from the high prices Apple charges for its handsets. He also says that lack of new hardware features, and the closing of the performance gap between the iPhone and other high-end models will make it difficult for Apple to hike iPhone prices in the future.

According to Uerkwitz, "The risks to the company (Apple) have never been greater. We believe Apple is about to embark on a decade-long malaise." Another analyst, James Cakmak form Monness Crespi Hardt says that "Apple won’t have it easy again for a while, if ever." He bases that on longer upgrade cycles, new focuses on VR and AR and competition from Google and Amazon.

Another trend that could take a bite out of Apple is one that Apple is actually now a part of. From 2015 to 2020, IDC expects the used smartphone market to triple. Earlier this month, Apple started selling refurbished iPhone units through its online store. Prices are about $100 lower for these previously used models.

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source: Marketwatch via NYPost

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72 Comments

1. phonehome

Posts: 812; Member since: Dec 19, 2014

Chicago Cubs won the World Series. Something else unexpected happened six days later.

19. sgodsell

Posts: 7451; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

The thing is the competition continues to offer more features and better hardware specs for a lot less money than what Apple offers. We all know Apple still sells the lowest resolution displays for a flagship device. Many of you say you don't need the higher resolution displays. However if any of you iPhone users actually tried out some of the latest VR applications, then you would know that those higher resolutions are absolutely necessary. I would say you should try it out. But if all you own is an iPhone, then you will never know what it is like. The latest VR applications for both Gear VR and Daydream VR are just incredible. Not to mention Apple is falling behind in so many areas including the cameras, expandability, utilities and tools compared to other platform offerings. Apple is slow to adopt new technologies. They are talking about adding wireless charging now with a glass back. Hello, a lot of the competition have been doing that for years. Apple is looking to introduce AMOLED displays, which Apple always boasts and brags how accurate and bright their displays are. Yet if their IPS panels are so great, then why move to AMOLED displays. No less than move to Samsung's AMOLED displays which many of you said that Apples IPS displays are superior. Yeah, right. That's why Apple's new iPhones will be using Samsung's inferior displays for its next generation iPhone. There have been articles on how many apps will be on iOS in the next few years. Some analyst said that 5,000,000 apps will be on iOS in a few years. But what about Android has overtaken iOS in terms of the number of apps. The start of 2015 Google's play store has more apps, and continues to out pace Apples app store in the total number of apps. Today the play store has over 400 thousand more apps and continues to outpace Apples app store. I always laugh when I see phonearena display the latest games for both iOS and Android. However they never show the latest games for VR. Many are landing on a weekly basis, but phonearena never list's those applications. I guess phonearena doesn't want to list those apps, because they would only work on Android. Also some of you including Apple will boast and brag to the world how fast their AX chips are, and if they are so fast. Then they should included higher resolution displays. Put your money where your mouth is. Let's see how fast the iPhone is with a QHD display. That's a true test, not using those stupid benchmarks.

24. phonehome

Posts: 812; Member since: Dec 19, 2014

Can't argue with any of that. Maybe Apple should learn to cut prices and take millions instead of billions in profit (oh my god!). And do appreciate the several minutes of your time taken to type so much.

27. kiko007

Posts: 7513; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Jesus......H.....Christ! Can you give me a tl;dr?

32. a1awan

Posts: 40; Member since: Feb 26, 2014

More specifically the iPhone 7s Pro or iPhone 8 Pro only will have AMOLED display, according to the rumours. What does this tell us? It tells us that the best available display (i.e. AMOLED) will find its way into next generation highend iPhone. The rest will continue selling with the IPS display.

47. Klinton

Posts: 1409; Member since: Oct 24, 2016

Even if Apple go for AMOLED display, it will not be the latest tech there. Samsung (and may be LG) will have last newest tech. And they will put it on their flagship phones. For Apple those newest displays are too expensive to keep the lovely profit. Apple could go some other way though: just put something like ''retina''(lol) in front of AMOLED.....and voila ....and the media of course

52. ibend

Posts: 6747; Member since: Sep 30, 2014

and make it a bit blueish and every site will say that it's the best display ever

48. zenun12

Posts: 205; Member since: Oct 31, 2016

I'm not an iFan, but I can't deny that the A10 Fusion has a quad-core cpu, but ony uses two HP cores in benchmarks. If the iPhone 7 Plus with a 1080p display just trails behind by a hair from the 750p iPhone 7, I can only see a marginal decrease in performance if they had QHD screens.

72. joey_sfb

Posts: 6794; Member since: Mar 29, 2012

The truth is we will never know the true performance of their A10 SOC because its only run on iOS an OS and ecosystem that Apple has domination over. They can say there A10 is x1000 more powerful than other ARMs SOC and I will have to take their words for it. There really no point having benchmark apps on iOS because its will only be running on phones made exclusively by Apple.

49. miketer

Posts: 527; Member since: Apr 02, 2015

A very good write up. +1

51. USAUSAUSA unregistered

I'm no fans of apple, but those analysts who want to try to be pro, at least don't use the word '10 years' it's so unpredictable Funny to see some MSM spamming and say Trump will not made it 2nd term, when he himself not yet enter the White House

2. marorun

Posts: 5029; Member since: Mar 30, 2015

Apple might become the new Blackberry in next 10 years if they dont start cutting into profit margin to lower cost of device and add more innovation. Basically they need to be less greedy.

8. Mxyzptlk unregistered

I don't see that happening. Apple is still very much alive while blackberry is pretty much dead outside enterprise and business.

10. xondk

Posts: 1904; Member since: Mar 25, 2014

It depends on what they do, and how long they can keep people glamoured believing Apple innovates despite glaring facts of opposite.

14. meanestgenius

Posts: 22280; Member since: May 28, 2014

I think that many iOS users are realizing that they can get a lot more bang for their buck from handsets running other OS's, as opposed to paying the premium price for a handset that lacks the features that other OEM's provide in their handsets.

16. deewinc

Posts: 455; Member since: Feb 21, 2013

That's what BlackBerry thought of the iPhone when BB was at its peak. "BlackBerry’s failure to keep up with Apple and Google was a consequence of errors in its strategy and vision. First, after growing to dominate the corporate market, BlackBerry failed to anticipate that consumers — not business customers — would drive the smartphone revolution. Second, BlackBerry was blindsided by the emergence of the “app economy,” which drove massive adoption of iPhone and Android-based devices. Third, BlackBerry failed to realize that smartphones would evolve beyond mere communication devices to become full-fledged mobile entertainment hubs. BlackBerry insisted on producing phones with full keyboards, even after it became clear that many users preferred touchscreens, which allowed for better video viewing and touchscreen navigation. When BlackBerry finally did launch a touchscreen device, it was seen as a poor imitation of the iPhone. BlackBerry saw its devices as fancy, e-mail-enabled mobile phones. Apple and Google envisioned powerful mobile computers and worked to make sending e-mail and browsing the Web as consumer-friendly as possible." http://business.time.com/2013/09/24/the-fatal-mistake-that-doomed-blackberry/

17. meanestgenius

Posts: 22280; Member since: May 28, 2014

Moral of the story: Never become complacent, and never underestimate anyone or anything. And from what I've been seeing, Apple has become complacent and they are underestimating the market, their users, and other OEM's.

22. sgodsell

Posts: 7451; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Normally I don't see eye to eye with a lot of your posts, but you are spot on. I would also add that Apple has to either freeze their current pricing, or better yet lower it. I am seeing for the first time a lot of sales coming up for all the iPhones, including the latest 7's. That never happened before. So I guess Apple is seeing that their greed is finally catching up to them.

28. meanestgenius

Posts: 22280; Member since: May 28, 2014

True. I normally don't agree with a lot of your posts either, but on this one we do. And you're right, Apple needs to freeze or lower its prices on its iOS toting products.

53. patrioticwarrior

Posts: 134; Member since: Nov 09, 2016

The sad part is that Apple can underestimate their MSM brainwashed isheeps as long as they want and stlll they can be the most profitable companies.

55. kiko007

Posts: 7513; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

If being one of these "brainwashed isheeps" will keep me from become a social Tard like yourself, I'll gladly pay the premium lol. However, going by your username and generally foul disposition, paying premiums isn't a custom you'd advocate :). You're just another of Techie's degenerate gophers', raging at your lack of understanding of why people like something you don't. Why so insecure man? If Android were indeed a standard higher than Apple's offerings, wouldn't money flow reflect that? What's that......that isn't the case? Maybe it's because most people aren't neckbeard hipsters trying to make an electronic with a 5.5in. screen into a full blown computer. I know I'm not, that's why I bought a Surface. You know what I want in a phone.....apps, good ones. You know what I get with Apple? Better apps, even if they cost more. You know what else I want, no framerate nosedives. Guess which platform doesn't have that issue. Ding ding....Apple. I also like having GUARANTEED software support past a few months lol. Tl;dr- you can keep your hateful nonsense to yourself. As long as people like you exist, I'll never truly embrace the other ecosystems. Reason: I don't want to breath the same air as you, let alone share a hobby.

60. k4ever

Posts: 240; Member since: Oct 08, 2014

And there you go lodging direct personal attacks at people again and spewing out your pro-Apple nonsense. I guess his/her generalized "isheep" comment touched off a nerve with you, compelling you to put yourself out there defending your masters in Cupertino. He/she never mentioned which phone he/she owned, yet you took his/her slight as an excuse to attack Android. Nothing you mentioned matters to the average user, since Android is still preferred by a whopping 80% of them. You should have just let it go. You can't troll a troll by being a troll. I think your time will be better spent counting Apple's profits, which you willing donate to without giving a second thought, while looking at your small low quality screen (not hard to get good frame rates on a 760p screen) and being amazed by the .000001% better quality in your apps. The rest of us are just happy to use a phone/operating system that fits our needs and offers us way more than the iPhone/iOS will probably ever offer (plus enjoy companies that care about us rather than themselves). BTW for full disclosure I have an iPhone 6 (for work) and a Galaxy Note 4 (for play). I enjoy the Note 4 way more than I enjoy the iPhone 6.

34. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

The fact is, they don't need to cut the price.Just fill the phone up with things that justify the price. A phone with a bigger battery than yours, shouldn't be ble to charge up faster than you. A phone with only a slightly better spec camera, shouldn't be taking photos or video, that make sit look 10x's better than yours. If Apple rushes and puts all that into this new model, what will they have to lure consumers to by the next model. With Chinese OEM like Huawei and others starting to sell phones in North America, Apple is going to feel the pinch long before Samsung does. Apple makes one phone, while Samsung still have phones that compete well with these Chinese models. Apple doesn't. And when people start buying iPhones for 1/2 the price of an iPhone, Apple and its iPhone is going to die a horrible death. Apple could potentially always be selling the iPhone, but while he iPhone is 70% of Apple's incomes, any lose in sales with no other product to take up the slack is a terrible spot to be in. Once that Android army grows to 1.5Billion or more, they are going to swarm the iOS Empire like bees. Liek in the movie Star Trek Beyond. The Enterprise is Apple's EMPIRE, and the bees are the Android OEM's and all their phones. Once they attack, size won't matter. iOS will then be made available to all OEM's, just like Sega and now Nintendo are making games for iOS and Android. Even the MIGHT MICROSOFT has bowed down to the fact, Android is a world power and with iOS 2nd its a dual world power they can't compete with. But Microsoft can help Android kill iOS for good if they want too. All Microsoft would have to do is cut a deal with Google to provide all its services to them in a cross platform deal and agree upon a price. If Apple wants in they will have to pay the same or be left out. If Apple refuses to buy in, then Google and Microsoft would have the best combined services and that would be enough to kill Apple entirely. The Surface is about to beat the iPad in market share Showing that others can have a single name powerful device they can market. I remember when Apple fans said no other OEM would make money off of branding behind one product name like Apple did with the iPod and iPhone. But they have, Surface, Galaxy, DROID and more have all been successful branding. Apple when they do die, is going to look like they sold their souls to the devil for their success and now the devil is now ready to collect on his ransom.

37. AlikMalix unregistered

Wow - do you even believe your own garbage? Where's that article about iPhone users being liars and emotional - looks like we found our iPhone user!!!

38. TheOracle1

Posts: 2340; Member since: May 04, 2015

Post #19 basically hits the nail on the head. Address that argument and convince me a one product company can continue to thrive amongst the fierce (and well financed Huawei's, BBK's and Samsung's) competition in the smartphone market.

46. AlikMalix unregistered

They don't make iOS devices. I like iOS better than android. Hundreds of million of people prefer iOS over android. As long as There are iOS devices - company that sells these devices will thrive. On many aspects android still has catching up to do.

54. TheOracle1

Posts: 2340; Member since: May 04, 2015

I specifically used the word thrive for a reason. What would happen if a future iPhone had a major flaw like the Note 7 and had to be recalled and cancelled? For a company that relies on one product for 70% of its sales/profits it would be a disaster way beyond what Samsung have suffered. That's all speculation though. What is real is that Android market share is in increasing worldwide and the value for money dynamic will only sustain that.

56. AlikMalix unregistered

I agree, the iphone is Apple's cash cow and only one at that... thats why apple is investing into services... I may be wrong, but Android market is increasing because of cheap phones flooding the not so rich parts of the world (hence the profit reports where android manufacturers share less the 10% of the entire mobile profits) - apple does not care about that market, they do extremely well in one segment and thats high end - they OWN the high end market as they rank in over 90% of profits nearly all just from that market. Taking that into account, it's android manufacturers that are struggling to get any traction in the profit side of things, samsung wasnt profiting much even before Note 7 problems. The only reason why samsung didnt get wiped out after Note 7 was because they're diversified in other technology including profits from building iphone parts - samsung is not making much from their non-flagship devices. If apple iphone "cow" tanks (and i always believe it's possible) it would hurt samsung AGAIN in a big way and other big tech companies. But yes, if apple looses iphone sales - it may see the dark ages again. Currently Apple is "Thriving" in the mobile business regardless of marketshare, which obviously apple isnt even chasing...

57. AlikMalix unregistered

TLDR: Android is growing BUT in a non-profit segment as apparent by latest revenue reports. On contrary, android manufacturers are struggling regardless of marketshare.

58. TheOracle1

Posts: 2340; Member since: May 04, 2015

I don't know why you're constantly referring to Samsung. It's like coming to an intersection and only looking left whilst the 18 wheeler that's the Chinese OEM's blindsides you. A mono economy or a mono company are extremely vulnerable. Apple is one bad release away from trouble.

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