The future for the Apple iPhone after next year's 10th anniversary is not so bright according to a report by Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz. The banking and securities house expects sales of the iPhone to peak next year (Apple's 2018 fiscal year starts September 30th, 2017) with 245 million units rung up. That would be a 9% increase from the consensus estimate of 225 million units that FactSet is calling for during fiscal 2017. Uerkwitz says that next year will give Apple "one last growth hurrah" thanks to the 10th anniversary hoopla.
The analyst says that after next year, consumers will start to "drift away" from the high prices Apple charges for its handsets. He also says that lack of new hardware features, and the closing of the performance gap between the iPhone and other high-end models will make it difficult for Apple to hike iPhone prices in the future.
According to Uerkwitz, "The risks to the company (Apple) have never been greater. We believe Apple is about to embark on a decade-long malaise." Another analyst, James Cakmak form Monness Crespi Hardt says that "Apple won’t have it easy again for a while, if ever." He bases that on longer upgrade cycles, new focuses on VR and AR and competition from Google and Amazon.
Another trend that could take a bite out of Apple is one that Apple is actually now a part of. From 2015 to 2020, IDC expects the used smartphone market to triple. Earlier this month, Apple started selling refurbished iPhone units through its online store. Prices are about $100 lower for these previously used models.
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