Analyst: Apple iPhone 4S demand points to "monster" release for Apple iPhone 5

Analyst: Apple iPhone 4S demand points to
Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray is an analyst that we have come across quite often in relation to the Apple iPhone. And after doing all of those calculations that analysts do, checking the supply chain, visiting retailers, and consulting a Magic 8 Ball, Munster comes to the conclusion that 30 million units of the Apple iPhone were sold in the quarter ended in December. That is up 4 million from his previous forecast, and is about 4 million shy of what he believes Apple could have sold based on information from NPD Group.

But Munster's latest comments really weren't about the Apple iPhone 4S. Nope. What Mr. Munster is looking at is the Apple iPhone 5. Munster notes that in the September quarter, before the launch of the Apple iPhone 4S, 17 million copies of the device were sold. Following the release of what is basically the same phone in the iPhone 4S, 30 million units were sold showing a huge increase in demand for a model with only a few changes like the addition of a dual-core A5 processor, Siri, and an 8MP camera.

Munster told his clients that if Apple can sell 30 million copies of the iPhone in the December quarter without a new form factor, it would indicate that 94% of current Apple iPhone users plan on upgrading to a new model. As the analyst said, "This theme suggests iPhone 5, which we are expecting in Aug. with a new form factor, will be a monster upgrade."

Ok, so much for the future. Back to the past. And it is there that the analyst expects that the Apple iPhone will make up 48% of the Cupertino based firm's December quarter revenue. 21% of revenue will come from the Apple iPad, says Munster, which translates into 13.5 million units sold in the three month period. His checks of retailers during the holiday showed a 68% increase in demand for the tablet from 2010. He also expects a third-gen iPad to hit the market in April.

If his numbers are right, the December period will bring new quarterly records for the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad. The previous highwater marks were 20.34 million in the June 2011 quarter and 11.2 million in the September quarter, respectively. Apple will be releasing its December quarter figures after the market closes on January 24th.

source: AppleInsider



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52 Comments

1. -box-

Posts: 3991; Member since: Jan 04, 2012

I anticipate/hope this is apple's best quarter ever... and that from henceforth, it'll all be downhill, especially with the push for WindowsPhone, and Android's market penetration, and lack of innovation. The next-gen phone would have to be packing something absolutely unheard of (which apple has never truly done, if we're honest) to remain competetive/innovative

7. tuminatr

Posts: 1126; Member since: Feb 23, 2009

I persoally dont think apple is going to do that well with it. I dont work for a carrier anymore but I cant tell you went I did how may people would come in dissapointed with there Iphone (honestly 2-3 people per day). Many people upgraded from droid to Iphone 4s and if they are a power user they miss the features and customization of android, Most of my friends that have a Iphone are the people who want a smart phone but dont want to learn. Iphone is a fad and its time is about to pass btw I am not saying the future is android or windows phone because I have no idea I am just saying apple is being seen for what it is. less is NOT more, less is less people

11. E.N.

Posts: 2610; Member since: Jan 25, 2009

You said yourself that some people switch to iPhone from Android. If customization was as important to them as you're making it seem, then they would have switched back. I the whole iPhone is for people who don't want to learn argument is so lame. There are plenty of people smarter than you that use iPhones. They are plenty of people who have come from more "complicated" OSes like The old windows mobile and blackberry OS. Stop looking so deep into these things and accept the fact that not everyone wants the same phone as you. No need to look into the psychological or social reasons

14. tuminatr

Posts: 1126; Member since: Feb 23, 2009

People sign phone contracts and somehow don’t notice the 14 day return, and yes the store I worked at would see about 4-5 returns per week people bringing back there Iphone for a droid, windows phone, or blackberry. I would also see a surprising amount of people who would trade there Iphone for a droid through craigslist Also from a account standpoint most account I pulled up that had a Iphone on them would use very little data. I usually saw around 250mb of data being used but the droid folks would usually average around 800mb with 3g or 3gb with 4g so they use their phone a lot more my wife has a Iphone (heck I paid for the phone) frankly I have already had about 4 times that I have said to her well if you had a droid then you could ... The only point I am trying to make is the iphone is not the Swiss army knife of phones it has faults and so do the other platforms. But consumers are starting to see the differences and NOT the marketing hype. BTW I am not the only person saying this I have read several other articles about the Iphone losing its cool factor and apple losing its cool factor. Do a Google search many of the computer mags have predicted this And not wanting to learn is very valid, marketing says the Iphone is the easiest to use but is it truely?? personally I think its debateable.

18. E.N.

Posts: 2610; Member since: Jan 25, 2009

well a lot of analyst reports say iPhone users are data hogs and that iPhones are the reason for most of the data caps, so I don't really buy the 250mb of data. you should keep in mind that Apple is expecting record sales this quarter so it seems like more people are buying iPhones and not less. As long as Apple keeps their sales high like this December, "cool factor" (whatever the hell that means) is irrelevant.

27. tuminatr

Posts: 1126; Member since: Feb 23, 2009

it is exactley the point, apple has been a fad, in fassion,cool whatever you want to call it and I for one say its coming to a end. and yes apple does have the largest base of cult like followers so the phone will do well but its not the only game in town.

30. E.N.

Posts: 2610; Member since: Jan 25, 2009

Well if it's a fad, then it's one that's not going to end any time soon (which defeats the meaning). I don't know why Apple's success is so troubling to you and your cult. Isn't Android doing well enough for you guys? You talk about Apple users not realizing that iPhone is not the only game in town, but you're doing the same exact thing. I don't know, I just personally don't understand why it is so damn important what phone everyone else is using. And all these talks about losing cool factor and theories of failing doesn't really make sense at this point. Why don't we just wait until they start failing before coming up with theories instead of year after year predicting failure. It's starting to seem like nothing more than pointless ranting and wishful thinking. And it doesn't matter what you THINK will or should happen. If the iPhone is a fad, like Android users have been saying for the last 4 years it should go away anytime soon but it really doesn't look like that's happening. Record sales man, stop being so blind.

23. Lucas777

Posts: 2137; Member since: Jan 06, 2011

haha so was the ipad not something new to u? what about the macbook air? the original iphone? to the average consumer, there was nothing before these products making them "absolutely unheard of".. and the average consumer is the market basically also why would apple suddenly decline after doing the best ever? i cud imagine leveling off, but a sudden decline? highly unlikely.. android just lost a huge amount of market share to ios, i believe they are now less then 5% apart (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/technology/blog/os-apple-android-market-share-20120110,0,3117091.story)… and anyways, apple doesnt need marketshare to succeed.. and i love windows phone, but i dont think apple will loose to windows phone, i think android will

33. Timoh

Posts: 5; Member since: Jan 12, 2012

That was just a quarterly sales chart, not market share. That article, or whoever wrote it is very misleading/uninformed. It also makes sense that it would be a strong quarter. Not only was it a new release, but a lot of people would have been eligible for upgrade on their two year plan.

37. Timoh

Posts: 5; Member since: Jan 12, 2012

And also, since I can't edit I'll add that the iOS5 upgrade slowed down all the other devices so much that a lot of people felt the need to upgrade based only on that.

51. Lucas777

Posts: 2137; Member since: Jan 06, 2011

"that article" was on almost every tech site including this site.. and yes it does make sense

2. xtremesv

Posts: 299; Member since: Oct 21, 2011

Not necessarily. We all know iphone users will buy everything Apple throw at them. Apple doesn't need to be that innovative anymore, the cult is formed.

5. devon613

Posts: 127; Member since: Oct 13, 2011

i agree

28. c.hack

Posts: 614; Member since: Dec 09, 2009

True. iPhone users tend to stick with iPhone. Android users tend to return their phones at a very high rate and a lot switch to iPhone.

34. iami67

Posts: 334; Member since: Oct 18, 2011

Actually we have more problems with iphones and more iphone returns to switch to android.

35. iami67

Posts: 334; Member since: Oct 18, 2011

And more people get mad when they find out what more an android can do after they already brought there iphone because the comercials told them too.

36. iami67

Posts: 334; Member since: Oct 18, 2011

Why else does every Tv show make fun of them Even on the Simpsons they were making fun of apple and ishep by saying "wow i cant remember the last time I waited in a line this long for anything that was slightly better then the last except for that mephone. "

38. iami67

Posts: 334; Member since: Oct 18, 2011

Sorry for all the post i was trying to figure out why phonearena was saying i was using vuglar words and wouldnt let me post this. Apperrently if you say Ishep and spell it correctly it is considered a bad word lol

45. 530gemini

Posts: 2198; Member since: Sep 09, 2010

@iam. Now if only the official reports would support everything you said. Apparently, they don't :) Notice how fandroids always use their girlfriends, their cousins, their parents? Because they can't find any reports to support their numbers, hahahahahaha.

40. c.hack

Posts: 614; Member since: Dec 09, 2009

Yes - Android can and does crash all the time Yes - Android phones go obsolete in 3 months Yes - Android phones are not actually open, they are full of crapware and have locked bootloaders Yes - Android market is a ghetto with hundreds of viruses Yes - Android is seriously fragmented - most Android devices don't even have access to the Android Market Yes - most people get mad and switch to iPhone

42. chadrick0814 unregistered

No - iPhone doesn't even have 4g when everyone one else is on 4g lte No - iPhone 4s isn't that different from iPhone 4 No - iPhone doesn't have Bluetooth file transferand can't even send a picture to someone next to you No - iPhone doesn't have SD card expansion Yes - ios is nothing more than an app launcher Yes - iTunes is annoying compared to drag and drop and acts as a cock block Yes - the 3.5 in screen is pathetic for gaming and movies Yes - it shatters when if someone bumps into you on the sidewalk and you drop it Viruses - don't download shady porn apps- use antivirus = NO VIRUSES Locked bootloaders = see iPhone Android marketplace = passing app store this year Crashes all the time = you are not an android owner Most people switch from android = see 51% marketshare today vs. 23% two years ago Obsolete= it doesn't work after 3months?? A 2 year old android phone still has more features than a 2 day old iPhone.

49. Johnny_Mnemonic

Posts: 240; Member since: Oct 05, 2011

Yes - not so smart people buy iPhone

41. c.hack

Posts: 614; Member since: Dec 09, 2009

You are funny, but ignorant. iPhone return rates are approximately 2%. Android return rates are 30-40%. Just do a Google search. Even an Android Troll should be able to do simple math.

44. remixfa

Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008

c.hack-taco, that 30-40% thing was thrown out a long time ago. It was from an article from a source that heard it from " a guy". with sources like that, then those rumors of apple feeding crack to children must be true too. Are you really that ignorant? No business would survive with a 30-40% return rate. wow.

46. 530gemini

Posts: 2198; Member since: Sep 09, 2010

@remix. Oh, we should believe fandroids numbers about their girlfriends and relatives then? How would that be different from "a guy"? lol.

3. alpinejason

Posts: 262; Member since: Sep 06, 2011

i see windows overtaking apple and android

15. TKFox007

Posts: 303; Member since: Nov 02, 2010

I would laugh if that happens

4. shelley.bevacqua

Posts: 80; Member since: Aug 27, 2011

Good pounts:-) i want all three os laiden phones! Especially when Windows specs beef up and apple has a 4 inch screen and finally when Android phones shrink in size:-)

6. shelley.bevacqua

Posts: 80; Member since: Aug 27, 2011

Good points:-) very akward typing on my Samsung Galaxy 7 plus tablet.

21. SlimSoulja86

Posts: 660; Member since: Nov 03, 2011

u just want attention

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