30 million Apple Watches in 2015 might be "conservative", wearables could hit 1 billion in 2020

30 million Apple Watches in 2015 might be
Recently, the official Wall Street investor estimates came out for the Apple Watch. The predictions said that Apple could sell anywhere from 10 to 30 million wearables in 2015. However, a new investor note from Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is saying that even the high end of that estimate could be considered "conservative".

The theory goes like this: by the time the Apple Watch launches next year (Huberty is guessing this will be in March), there will be about 315 million people around the world who own an iPhone 5 or newer. Of course, the iPhone 5 is the minimum hardware requirement for compatibility with the Apple Watch. Then, if we were to assume that just 10% of those users buy an Apple Watch, we're already over the high-end 30 million unit estimate. 

The thing is that even assuming 10% of users buy an Apple Watch might be a conservative estimate, because the wearable market is growing faster than analysts had expected. Huberty says that the newest estimates are putting the wearable market at anywhere between 530 million and 1 billion units in 2020. And, 14% of iPhone users bought an iPad in the first year it came out. 

It should be noted that the estimates for the Apple Watch sales from the supply chain have been guessing somewhere between 30 and 40 million units, which would be in the range and higher than even what Morgan Stanley is estimating. Obviously, the price point and ultimate list of features will likely play a big part in all of this; but, we might be looking at a bigger year for the Apple Watch than had been previously thought. 

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16 Comments

1. screensaver.tv

Posts: 3; Member since: Nov 18, 2014

Not even close, the price is too high, the product is too meh looking. No chance they hit half that imo

2. Neo_Huang

Posts: 1067; Member since: Dec 06, 2013

In that picture it actually doesn't look half bad.

7. screensaver.tv

Posts: 3; Member since: Nov 18, 2014

LOL that's like the Gold 5 thousand dollar one, i'd hope it looks half good!

5. ManusImperceptus

Posts: 724; Member since: Jun 10, 2014

Pretty much what I was gonna write; it has it's price and looks going against it. Plus the vast majority of smartphone users have absolutely no use for a smartwatch. Those that need a fitness band has either already got one, or will buy a cheaper, specialized device.

13. Anshulonweb

Posts: 468; Member since: Feb 07, 2014

i think you underestimate the intelligence of typical apple fan.....they will buy anything with apple logo and it and will willingly pay twice the worth of it...

16. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

It's just a fashion accessory. Smart watches are irrelevant. battery life only last one day.

3. Settings

Posts: 2943; Member since: Jul 02, 2014

Said no iPhone fan ever.

4. techloverNYC

Posts: 601; Member since: Nov 20, 2012

How is the market growing? I don't see anyone wear a smart watch in person yet, closest thing I saw ppl wearing was the pebble watch.

6. Andrewtst

Posts: 696; Member since: Jan 25, 2009

There are dreaming too high.

12. JunitoNH

Posts: 1946; Member since: Feb 15, 2012

Lol, yeah I think Apple heard all this before. No way, too high, too pricey, yeah ask Ballmer.

8. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

"the official Wall Street investor estimates" Also known as "Wall Street BS put out to pump up the stock".

9. cnour

Posts: 2305; Member since: Sep 11, 2014

They reinvented the watch. Thanks Apple.

10. Planterz

Posts: 2120; Member since: Apr 30, 2012

I've never seen anybody with a smartwatch, but I don't live in NYC or LA or Tokyo either. I'd like to think that people aren't so stupid that they'd buy iWatches by the millions, but at the same time, Adam Sandler and Michael Bay keep making movies, Justin Beiber and One Direction sell records, and the Kim Kardashian game has made millions of dollars, so what the hell do I know about the stupidity of the human race?

11. tedkord

Posts: 17410; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

I won't be wearing any smart watch. I was tempted by the beauty of the Moto 360, but a recent trip to Disney World, with their new electronic bracelets confirmed that I hate anything on my wrist. I fiddled and adjusted it the whole week. My wrist was raw by the flight home.

14. strudelz100

Posts: 646; Member since: Aug 20, 2014

I have hairy wrists so watches are 100% out.

15. kurama.

Posts: 85; Member since: Sep 13, 2014

These useless analyst are never correct . These sore loser have nothing else to do so they comment on apple or samsung to get some popularity. Let's hope nothing crazy happens till 2020

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