14% of buyers would purchase the next iPhone, demand at all time high

14% of buyers would purchase the next iPhone, demand at all time high
Despite all the leaks and rumors, we don't really know what the next iPhone (iPhone 5?) will look like. After all, Apple does a great job at keeping its products a secret until the moment they are announced. However, there are hordes of people who would most likely buy the next iPhone anyway, as a study conducted by 451 Research indicates.

In fact, the desire for the next iPhone is higher than it has been for any of the previous iPhone models: 14% of the participants said that they were "very likely" and 17% said they were "somewhat likely" to buy the next iPhone. Interestingly, only 2% of the respondents expressed high likeliness of buying a Samsung Galaxy S III, even though over 10 million units of the company's flagship have been sold worldwide in just 2 months. 

“Overall smartphone sales should spike to an all-time high this fall, and of course Apple is going to be the number one beneficiary,” said Dr. Paul Carton, VP of Research at 451 Research. “But besides Apple, and to a lesser degree Samsung, no other manufacturer is likely to benefit from this coming wave of demand.”

Demand for smartphones of other makes is nowhere near as high, with Nokia, Motorola, HTC, and BlackBerry handsets sought after by 2%, 4%, 3%, and 2% of consumers. This June 2012 survey was based on data collected from 4,042 buyers residing in North America.

Related phones

iPhone 5
  • Display 4.0" 640 x 1136 pixels
  • Camera 8 MP / 1.2 MP front
  • Processor Apple A6, Dual-core, 1300 MHz
  • Storage 64 GB
  • Battery 1440 mAh(8h 3G talk time)



1. networkdood

Posts: 6330; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

huh, 4042 people were surveyed, out of what? 250 million? Yep, anyone who has taken a statistics class knows just how accurate this survey was....

5. ardent1

Posts: 2000; Member since: Apr 16, 2011

networkdood, I take it you never took statistics at the graduate level. All you need is a basic understanding of The Law of Large Numbers and assuming you get random people in the survey, the sample result will be a good predictor of the population. The sample error might be +/- 4%.

64. networkdood

Posts: 6330; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

Took a course first year in college - but it has been a while. Yeah, I have seen how the margin of error is calculated, but to survey only a few and extrapolate that result as answer for large populations is ludricous. Maybe getting 1 million people to respond to a survey would be more accurate, but less plausible of doing so.

67. Lucas777

Posts: 2137; Member since: Jan 06, 2011

no not at all.. if randomness was achieved, which is somewhat necessary to have a complete survey, then ardent is right and the margin of error is quite small-- even with the less than one million sample size since the percentage of error decreases exponentially

69. networkdood

Posts: 6330; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

yeah, I read about margin of error on stats.

71. remixfa

Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008

your right.. but these surveys can never be trusted. "intent" and "buy" are never the same. "Interestingly, only 2% of the respondents expressed high likeliness of buying a Samsung Galaxy S III, even though over 10 million units of the company's flagship have been sold worldwide in just 2 months. " So, only 2% of people surveyed want the hottest phone on the planet? Something tells me that when they get to the store, that number will change. There is also that well known bit that non tech people use iphone synonymous with "smartphone". Hell, I answered the samsung intent survey to buy an SGS3. Said I was going to get one.. Yet here I am still using my SGS1 unsure of what exactly I want to buy. The best way to do this would be to put the iphone and SGS3 infront of people and ask them which they intend to buy. That way any name brand recognition will be at least partially muted by actual consumer awareness of both products.

85. DocOaK17

Posts: 16; Member since: Jul 12, 2012

''hottest phone on the planet?'' lol. Grow up man your sounding like samsung version of taco50 always talking about the sales and bashing other brands like qualcomm etc.


Posts: 97; Member since: Jul 08, 2012

Wize up man. Its all about power and specs....

7. -box-

Posts: 3991; Member since: Jan 04, 2012

Exactly. Surveys should be in the hundreds of thousands or more to be more accurate, and from a wide variety of peoples and professions.

28. Veigald

Posts: 290; Member since: Jan 13, 2012

Hundreds of thousands or more? You don't think that would be a bit too expensive to perform? In general, as soon as you have about 1000 respondents in an assumed random sample of the full population, you can be confident the survey is representative within 1/2% points. This sample is a bit small, but as ardent1 said, that merely increases the sampling error somewhat.

57. Aeires unregistered

The problem with small sample analysis is that not enough population demographics get factored in. For instance, if a survey was conducted on the south side of Chicago with 1000 applicants, the results would be much different than 1000 applicants from the north side of Chicago. To give you an idea of how small sample this is, Android sells more phones in 6 minutes than the entire amount of people surveyed.

10. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

Especially if it was conducted in Apple's only stronghold the U.S. Take this survey anywhere that is not the U.S. & the results would be all in favor of Android. Almost 1,000,000 daily activations just can't be disputed.

29. TheLibertine

Posts: 484; Member since: Jan 15, 2012

But if the results were reversed, there would be 47370 flaming comments about what Apple should suck. Android fans become much more terrible than iOS-fanboys ever were. You just turn in the stereotype you hated. Thats my impression after reading the comments here a few months

40. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

Look Apple fans were always spewing crazy talk, it first started with Android will NEVER overtake Apple. Then it went to Android is a DIRECT copy of Apple. Then it went to Android is laggy & will never be as smooth. Then it went to Android voice search is inferior than Apple's. Then it went to rich people by Apple & poor people buy Android. Apple fans will never be topped. They are clearly the most fanatical, almost cult like. Apple fans forget that they started this a very long while ago. Now Apple fans get all sour about the topic & go as far as saying we have turned into the stereotype we hated. Look if I was this stereotype then I would be saying all those things, we as Android fans have never done that & probably never will. The fact is this article is clearly biased because it ONLY takes in to consideration just the U.S. part of the pie. We all know it's not like that elsewhere in the world. That is really point. I am not trying to flame anyone. It's funny how Apple fans always accuse instead of looking at it from both sides.

46. remtothemax

Posts: 260; Member since: May 02, 2012

they aren't fanatical and cult like, they are just average groupish human beings they want what all the other people in their society have because that is how humans work it isn't rational, its instinctual the phone works just fine, so there is no reason to look elswhere android is great, but all the "deal breaking" features are honestly not things that i see the average person (even myself) really needing they are probably awesome features, but not something that would be more important than having the same apps as your friends being able to face being able to use messages those are the reasons people choose apple, even if they are dated they didn't buy smartphones to have custom folders and to be able to unlock things and mess around with clocking speeds

47. Penny

Posts: 1860; Member since: Feb 04, 2011

SuperAndroidEvo, If you don't think the Android fans on this website are the slightest bit fanatical, I think you are being disingenuous to yourself. The easiest way to point this out is to look at articles related to products OTHER than Android. I don't go to Android articles and trash talk the OS; I give it its props as related to the article and move on. Try going to a Windows Phone article though and NOT seeing Android fans bashing the OS. TheLibertine pointed out a sincere observation, and it is the truth whether or not you want to agree.

55. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

It's all a matter of opinion. I have NEVER heard an Android fan ever say that an iPhone is for RICH people & an Android phone is for POOR people. I don't know what else qualifies for FANATICAL or CULT like. Anyone who has been on this site for the last 3 years or so can attest to that. TheLibertine pointed out something that really is NOT the same at all. Android fans don't have THAT type of mentality. We are all entitled to believe what we want. It doesn't make it right & it doesn't change the fact that Apple fans HAVE said these things I stated & have instigated in the past.

56. remtothemax

Posts: 260; Member since: May 02, 2012

and if you want in the most recent threads i can find plenty of quotes for you of android people saying completely irrational, untrue, and fanatical comments if the mythical apple fan does exist, the android one does as well and is very similar to the apple fan we are entitled to believe what we want but just shouting that apple products are inferior, outdated pieces of crap only used by morons is factually inaccurate and honestly, i cannot remember the last time i saw a true "ifan" i've seen the fake charicatures, but not the real thing

60. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

& what quotes are these? I stated the age old quotes or arguments. What are these new Android arguments you speak of? If they are irrational, untrue, & fanatical I would have said something because I don't want to be grouped into that segment. So please let me know so I can be aware of them. Are you sure they are not retaliation of what someone said?

54. TheLibertine

Posts: 484; Member since: Jan 15, 2012

No, you're not a stereotype. You are an unprejudiced and rational person, but there are not many of your kind here. An example - i am an Galaxy Note owner and tired of bugs and lags, i want a more refined performance and better battery life next time, also i want better apps. I know all the specs, i saw tons of reviews, and, after learning Apple has a 91% user satisfaction rate, i choose to use Apple products. Am i an iSheep? Are my father, mother and grandfather iSheeps? Brainwashed weirdos who have to "wake" up, because most of the people here think they know better and have the only one right opinion? Wake up, aggressive Android fans, every company wants to earn cash, Google and Apple are alike companies. There is not only black and white in this world and there are far bigger problems than two mobile OS. Now start thumbing down. For great Android justice that shall pass over all the brainwashed iSheeps.

58. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

Hey that is a decision you make. If you feel Apple is ok then go for it. It makes no difference to me. Only you will know if the choice you made will be the right choice. My issue is not with that way of thought, my issue is the mentality & arrogance some people deploy when it comes to Apple as a whole. I have had people literally tell he that everyone has an Apple computer or that Apple is for rich people not the poor. That is so false yet they continue to argue because they think Apple is a status symbol or something really important to fabricate such ridiculous statements. Now as an educated person can you see the problem with that? Also with people who blindly think STILL to this day that an Apple iPhone 4 or 4S is 4G. That is my issue, the people who think the iPhone or Apple products are the next coming of Jesus Christ or something along the lines of CULT following. They think in that manner so much that they will fabricate anything to make their point. Android fans never reduce themselves in that manner. Yes we know Android lags but we also understand why. Android does a million things in the background, while Apple stops whatever it’s going to achieve smoothness. Now Android with Jelly Bean hit it on the peak, they have the best of both worlds. No lag, bugs but still achieves incredible smoothness without sacrificing speed. You made an educated decision & that is fine good for you. That is acceptable, but to say Android fans are somewhere in that ball park it’s ludicrous. Every OEM has their fans, but Apple fans are the cream of the crop when it comes to fanaticism or cult like behavior. I know many Apple users who are that Apple users, they will never make comments like that or say Apple is for the rich not the poor.

61. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

I am going to change my remark. Apple i$heep are the cream of the crop when it comes to fanaticism or cult like behavior. The average Apple fan is not that & I should have stated my point a little better. Sorry. :-) I can admit when I make a mistake, i$heep could never do that.

93. MeoCao unregistered

There's nothing wrong with that b-c you have tried different thing and choose what you want. 1Sheep are those who blindly follow Apple and lack any knowledge about other options. But my advice is next time you should have a look at a JB device, smooth as butter and very clever software, way better than iPhone.


Posts: 97; Member since: Jul 08, 2012


76. serious9010

Posts: 254; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

@SuperAndroidEvo: But you are turning into the stereotype you hated (you alone, and many others). I bet this sentence hit u right into the soft spot. This is what truth does ;-)

78. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

Ohh c'mon. I am made of tougher stuff. If that hit me on the soft spot then I should NOT be posting my opinions. It's like this is now Apple fanatics last resort. They say you are turning into the stereotype I speak against. The minute I say Android is for the RICH and Apple is for the POOR or when this becomes so personal that I need to lie or misrepresent myself or Android, or when it's not fun anymore then YES I have become that stereotype. Until then serious9010 you are clearly dead wrong. Nice try though. ;-) It this was truth it would hurt, but this is FAR from the truth. lol

79. serious9010

Posts: 254; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

So you feel like some sort of an ambassador of android :-) Save your patriotism for your country, champ ;-)

121. SuperAndroidEvo

Posts: 4888; Member since: Apr 15, 2011

I rep what I like. If you want to call me an ambassador by all means do it. I like the title anyways. lol ;-)

125. serious9010

Posts: 254; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

It's sad one is able to generate such level of emotions for a brand/device. Pretty sad :(


Posts: 97; Member since: Jul 08, 2012

Android is for rich people.... A high-end phone comes out every 6 months... Apple has 1 phone every 14 months... poor people can-not keep up with Android... blsht bogus Apple products are for rich people... What a joke.....

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

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