Do you expect an industry status-quo change in 2014?

Do you expect an industry status-quo change in 2014?
Volatile, fast-changing, and just unpredictable overall. Those adjectives fit well with the smartphone industry, and indeed any industry that is making headway towards "perfect" competition. Or well, that's at least one way to look at it. BlackBerry and Nokia, albeit the long face, would agree.

There's just no way of reliably forecasting in a consistent manner. Bets are made, of course, and most of those are a little more than just educated guesses, but the facts remain: although unlikely at this exact moment, there's no telling if Samsung and Apple won't follow into BlackBerry's and Nokia's footsteps of financial doom. And despite both having a pretty beneficial duopolistic type deal, competition is definitely mounting, and palpably. That's especially true in the East, for example, with Chinese and Indian smartphone vendors narrowing the know-how gap ever further. What's more, these are increasingly looking away from their otherwise massive home markets in hopes of attracting attention in the relatively wealthier West, which may or may not be looking for a change of pace. The rest of the mainstream brands, like LG, Sony, HTC, and so on, while not the most profitable, are nevertheless a constant threat as well.

Are you one of those people? And even if not, do you think that 2014 will mark some sort of major change of the current status-quo in the smartphone industry? With the whole world gunning for Apple's and Samsung's lion shares of the pie, it will be interesting to see if any one company manages to disrupt the incumbents position, and we'd like your input on just how likely you think that is. 

Do you expect an industry status-quo change in 2014?

A major 'upset' is definitely in the making, y'all just wait and see!
20.02%
Not necessarily in 2014, but things are brewing
57.24%
Yeah, good luck with that! No reason to believe a change is on the way
22.73%

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24 Comments

1. sgodsell

Posts: 7430; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Project Ara will change the world in a very profound manner.

3. Commentator

Posts: 3723; Member since: Aug 16, 2011

I liked this comment better when it was "shake the world." :(

7. SleepingOz unregistered

Yeah, Google is the one who's gonna change the face of technology!

12. superduper

Posts: 151; Member since: Oct 20, 2013

Modular technology is a confusing and expensive alternative to all-in-one solutions. It will go the same way as Glass and the Galaxy Gear.

13. AliNSiddiqui

Posts: 382; Member since: Sep 19, 2012

It's supposed to be very cheap. My problem with Project Ara is that people like buying new stuff, with Project Ara, it will be limited to just the modules. The design of the exoskeleton will stay the same for quite some time.

20. Synack

Posts: 688; Member since: Jul 05, 2011

I would love for a change. But it's not coming. Manufacturers keep shelling out minor device refreshes and we keep handing them more and more money. They're comfortable and happy.

2. AliNSiddiqui

Posts: 382; Member since: Sep 19, 2012

I think this year marks the first year of Samsung and Apple's downfall. Sony, HTC, LG, and Motorola are finally stepping up their game and Samsung was caught with their pants down this time. Samsung will still break records this year most likely, but people will start to realize that the competition is doing better. As for Apple, Windows Phone will take Apple out, little by little, although I am sure that the WP8.1 update will definitely increase the growth. Heck, in some places in Europe, WP already has a greater market share. WP's focus on low-end will also definitely help in places like India and other developing countries.

6. sgodsell

Posts: 7430; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Even though WP did well with the likes of the lumia 520 in India. Now that the 525 has been released their, sales of WP has declined in India recently. Even globally last quarter WP declined to 8.8 million devices. That's down from the previous quarter of 9.5 million devices. Even Nokia realized that both India and China are going to see the biggest growth in 2014. Both countries have a number of Android Only OEMs, and both sit at roughly 90% Android market share. Nokia recently released not 1 but 3 forked Android phones with a UI like WP. WP has not been generating the needed sales or revenue, that's why Nokia came out with Android phones that only have Microsoft's apps and services without any of Googles apps and services. The European countries that WP has surpassed Apple is because they have no subsidies for the hardware. So yes a a cheap WP at 100 euro will sell more then a 600-800 euro apple iPhone.

11. AliNSiddiqui

Posts: 382; Member since: Sep 19, 2012

I think that the reduced sales this past quarter is a result of lack of devices and updates.

9. SleepingOz unregistered

I'm no apple fan but WP isn't taking iOS anytime soon. The all new, not a refreshed version, iP6 is coming, iOS will regain its lost marketshare quite rapidly after.

14. AliNSiddiqui

Posts: 382; Member since: Sep 19, 2012

WP growing past iOS in some parts of Europe is not news, if iPhone 5 couldn't do anything about it then what's so special about iPhone 6?

15. ihavenoname

Posts: 1693; Member since: Aug 18, 2013

Windows Phone is no threat to iOS. Most of iPhones sold are high-end and most of WPs are low-end. People who buy 520s probably don't want to spend over $500 to smartphone and people who buy iPhones could not care less about low-end Lumia.

17. grahaman27

Posts: 364; Member since: Apr 05, 2013

Just give up on your WP dream, I mean... After all, Microsoft did :))

18. AliNSiddiqui

Posts: 382; Member since: Sep 19, 2012

Lol that's true, it like a side project to them..

4. apple4never

Posts: 1064; Member since: May 08, 2013

this year will see the uprising of sony, htc, LG and some others as well as the downfall of sammy (not that i want that) and apple (i want that)

8. sgodsell

Posts: 7430; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Samsung puts out the most smart phones with the most features and options. Still no OEM has challenged them in that area. Not to mention that almost every OEM needs them for some parts. Samsung makes CPUs, memory, displays, radios, storage, or basically everything for their phones. Not to mention components for Apple Nokia, Sony, LG, Motorola, lenovo, htc, huawei, .... I don't think Samsung is going to see a downfall like you put it.

16. ihavenoname

Posts: 1693; Member since: Aug 18, 2013

Same with Apple. Even if their iPhone line up would fail (very unlikely though, they are selling well, have insanely good customer sat. ratings and loyalty, new bigger screen iP6 coming etc.) they still have highly successful iPad and Mac line-up. And Apple haters have said that Apple will fall next year since 1977...

21. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

SONY won't market their selves here in THE U.S. which have the largest carrier but sad too see them only put their device exclusively ONLY for T-MOBILE which kinda sucksa. and I dont think LG won't put DENT in sales against SAMSUNG here in the U.S.

5. rawbow

Posts: 428; Member since: Mar 30, 2012

They need another niche product or a big skip in existing tech

10. antonioli

Posts: 200; Member since: Sep 08, 2013

When they sense it they will coming with wearable stuffs and other things.

19. Slammer

Posts: 1515; Member since: Jun 03, 2010

The changes I'd like to see are not going to happen this year. However, I am lobbying to see some changes within the next three years. Current trends are giving way to misaligned thought patterns. It is my hope that what I perceive as detrimental practices now happening in the industry, will eventually be equally viewed as stagnating advancements and lack of consumer control. I hope that the petitions in the works from individuals as myself, will be taken seriously through our local, state and national government to end the charades of manufacturers and carriers that are misguiding the consumers. I also hope that edititors and reporters of sites like Phonearena start to imagine a more diversecourse in retaining quality build AND consumer accessibility; not being one sided that quality build is an excuse to eliminate key features and functions. I would like these people(that claim to love the industry and feel they know everything) to put the money where their mouths are and rally for more balance instead of trying to push a short changed approach in pushing unbaked trends. Think with your heads and use common sense. Not salivate and lust over marketing tactics. The editors and reporters should promote more of a knowledgeble authoritative position of knowing what is hype vs true advancements. John B.

22. Xenaz

Posts: 144; Member since: Apr 28, 2013

I really hope it does this year but it won't gonna happen this year, not anytime soon. But the dominance by Samsung and Apple is going weaker and weaker, especially Apple, as more and more people start realize that they actually have many other options on the market other than Samsung and Apple. This is a good sign for consumers, we need no dominance but more competition, so we could have more options and better offers from OEMs. Looking forward to Project Ara as well.

23. AppleHateBoy unregistered

It's getting more and more difficult to produce phones that offer real improvements. This will ultimately push prices down and reduce profits. Also Samsung and Apple are essentially ruling the market. Being big players they don't want to innovate quickly but still want profits. It will be interesting to see how quickly the smartphone commoditized.

24. roscuthiii

Posts: 2383; Member since: Jul 18, 2010

I would love if there was a major change... however, I don't see anything other than incremental changes until a completely new type of technology emerges. Not a new product category mind you. New technology. Unless of course that new product category is made possible by that new technology. *fingers crossed*

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