56% of survey respondents say they plan on getting an iPhone, Samsung next in line
posted by Daniel P. / Apr 12, 2012, 3:12 AM
About 56% of those who plan on replacing their phones in the next three months said they are going to get an iPhone, which is the second highest percentage on the research company's record, and shows Apple doesn't have much to worry about in Q2.
Next in line were the people who wanted a Samsung handset, then Motorola, HTC and a BlackBerry. ChangeWave even made handy little charts showing the respondents brand distribution, as well as the demise of BlackBerry phones' demand.
We wonder how these results might change in the months after the Samsung Galaxy S III announcement, and before Apple has started selling the next iPhone version.
Posts: 2156; Member since: Oct 17, 2011
The actually market figures are telling a quite different story. Even in the US, android phones sold more than iPhone in the latest Gartner report. And worldwide its not even a contest - 80-90 million vs 30-35 million estimated for Q1.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 3:54 AM 10
Posts: 1488; Member since: Dec 29, 2011
you have to remember when they asked for a survey to see what 4G phones people were going to buy a staggering 30% said iphone 4"G" ...so this 56% is the same bunch
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 6:05 AM 4
Posts: 872; Member since: Apr 20, 2009
I love when people come into my store and ask for the iPhone 4G lol. I tell them, sorry, there is no iPhone 4G yet, but we have the 4S and iPhone 4 if you're interested, or I'll just say, Oh, you mean the 4S, right? Yeah, you really do mean the 4S.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 6:29 AM 10
Posts: 460; Member since: Mar 15, 2011
utput=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=best%20selling%20smartpho ne&oq=Best%20selling%20smart&a q=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=hp.11.0.0 l4.1106l7947l0l9988l20l15l0l3l 3l0l808l3520l3-2j0j2j2l8l0.&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or .r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=b95 7b0c18971b679&pf=p&pdl=300
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 10:26 AM 1
Posts: 109; Member since: Nov 01, 2011
Did they get the AT&T update that changed their iPhone network indicator to say 4G? That's why. I remember seeing an acquaintance's instagram photo when their phone got changed to 4G. Poor girl.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 11:53 AM 0
Posts: 2315; Member since: Jul 30, 2011
Remember that, "they" all have to upgrade because "their" hardware is always outdated; even when "they" all stand on-line to buy the current year's upgrade it is understood that [ANY] hardware upgrades are going to be miNiMal at best. Therefore, it would make perfect sense that "they" aka "°•°" would need to upgrade all of "their" outdated iDuds year-after- year or month-after-month or day-after-day. On the Samsung issue, people just want to upgrade to Samsung because they want the next exciting BIG thing with a 5.3 screen and not the other way around (3.5) because, otherwise, they would become "they" or, in effect, "°•°" and would need to also invest in biNoculArs.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 7:10 AM 2
Well... yeah, but, these aren't supposed to replace or be current market figures. This is a three-month intention survey outlook, so nothing in the current market (except current advertising methods and expenditures, which has influenced the current intentions of consumers by this point) should be confused with this data. This info is somewhat useful, although they are on the very high-end of other data I am looking at this month. I would include them in the average I use, but it will still not be this high a percentage for my purposes. I wish they had divided this up by OS, and not by OEM, and even with this done by OEM, I wish they had included Nokia.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 8:12 AM 2
Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008
again, these mean nothing. hep, here, this proves my point to a T about using these graphs to your research... you want to know if people are lying? NO they are not, but to many iphone is synonymous with "smartphone". look at that graph. for just a moment, lets take it as fact. it says that more than half the people want an iphone, and all together only 25% of people want android phones. Now look at reality. Its OPPOSITE. Android has more than 50% of the market share and GROWING. While iphone units are selling in high numbers, the OS itself is statistically stagnant most quarters. EVERY survey that they have polled shows the iphone in a huuuge lead for "what im going to buy next", but when it comes down to it, people en masse choose android. Android outsold iOS, even on the launch of the i4s... which as you can see by the chart garnered a 60%+ "im going to buy it now" rate. People are not lying, they are just saying "iphone", when they mean "smartphone". most people that know anything at all think in android and apple, not apple and samsung and HTC, ect... or they just think "iphone = any smartphone" which is why your data is so far off. Trust me, it happens all the time. I have people come in at least once a week that go and look at the SGS2 and go, "hey how much is this new iphone". seriously.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 8:17 AM 4
Again, remix, you have applied "reality" to an non-reality data point. The problem here is that you have arbitrarily decided that if you see data about the future that does not match what you see today, then it must be wrong and skewed by some other artificial means because tomorrow ought to look just like today, and unfortunately this is NOT a luxury that a decent analyst can ever afford to take. I am not arguing with you about current market share... but you want this data to reflect current market share in order to be realistic, when really there need not be any immediate correlation. Remember, we are dealing with data that displays something that, inately, is not the current reality, and it is SUPPOSED to be that way! If I wanted to "predict" the current situation, I could use past data to show you that I can predict the current market share by using past intention poll data, past sales figures, and past market share values, but that is hardly a prediction when I could just as well look at the current market share data without needing to predict it because it has already been directly measured. As for the surveys being so far off because of misunderstanding and lingo, I disagree with you. People are not so inatley dumb on such a mass-scale, and yes, if people say they will go to iOS, and then stay with Android, then they are lying, especially if they already have a year-or-more-old Android device and should know the difference. Now, there is a phenomenon that better describes what you are saying, and it is called "the group-think lie". You are essentially claiming that this survey is a huge display of such a "group-think lie", but you forget one important point: "group-think lies" only last for a small period of time before they either melt away, or become the new reality. Perhaps this is what Apple understands best about marketing, because if what you are saying is true, then this IS the best use of a "group-think lie" that I have ever seen in my lifetime. I do not have the resources to compute how long such a "group-think" could last in this case, as it is tied to a lot of variables and complex analysis, and because I am not a sociologist (though I have had interests in the field), but the point is that either this would have melted away into oblivion a year or two ago, or Apple has hyped it up so much that it is now transitioning into real sales more and more. In other words, even if this "group-think" that you are claiming is in fact happening, it is only a matter of time before it translates into reality. For the data to be this high means that it is probably already too late for it to pull a dissappearing act in the next year of surveys, and although people can "group-think lie" over short terms, their actions will ALWAYS catch up to their words.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 8:53 AM 3
You know, remix, I've been thinking... I think the big difference between you and me on this issue is that you are like the judge that cites case-law, and I am like an attorney that is citing legistative law. Case-law is all about historical events and precedents... and aiming to keep reasonable perspective... whereas legislative law is all about answering new developing trends in social behavior... and hence more recent law practices. You want to show that recent behavior is no different from past behavior, and is qualitatively predictable in a historical context, and I am trying to show that recent behavior follows a set of quantitative laws which can predict new behaviors which may never have been directly observed before. Both of these approaches have their merits, and both ought to have bearing on this right now... but the only problem is that we are producing different answers at the moment.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 8:54 AM 2
Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008
sure, but go find graphs on the same subject from the past that try to predict future trends. Without fail EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM shows the iphone has a huge lead in "my next phone purchase", and without fail, every last sales month has android out pacing apple. Thats my point. when you match future predictors to the outcome, they do not in fact match. not a single one of them since the launch of android. Had they matched, android wouldnt have more than 25% market share while apple would be up in the 50-60 range, as per the regular "what phone will i buy next" poll. It is the exact opposite. I keep showing you the exact proof you say you need to see to show that people's intentions do not match the reality of their purchases, yet every time you brush it off. Im starting to think you are too attached to your equasion, right or wrong. lol. There is impirical data proving my exact points. No matter how many times they have run brand loyalty or purchase intention polls, apple has ALWAYS come out on top. But when it comes down to actual sales, android has ALWAYS come down on top. You are trying to see why people are lying, because u say its unusual. Im trying to show you with evidence that people are not lying. What they are doing is using iphone as a synonym for smartphone. Go ask 20 people that are not tech savy the first thing that comes to their mind when they think of smartphone.. i bet you hear iphone more often than not. iphone is a synonym for smartphone. Brilliant marketing on apple's part, but it skews every data set for future purchase intentions. It makes these polls and any like them.. worthless. And that is why your formula the way it is will never be true.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 9:25 AM 1
remix said: "Without fail EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM shows the iphone has a huge lead in "my next phone purchase", and without fail, every last sales month has android out pacing apple." This is not true. It may seem that way now and in recent memory, but there are many sources that show Android and iOS more balanced in this metric as of a year and a half to two and a half years ago. There are still some polls showing Android over iOS as of the end of 2010. It is only in the last year that EVERYBODY is calling iOS over Android in these intent polls, and as this phenomenon sparked my curiosity (because, like you, I wanted to PROVE that Android would eventually shoot ahead again) I started my analysis around August of last year. My results were startling to me, but thus far (8 months later) the initial analysis, even without tweaking for adjustments to loyalty metrics (I had prepared an initial adjustment in the event of a total Samsung legal loss to Apple, but obviously never had to implement it) is only off by an error of 0.3% from current market share stats as of this month. I even predicted that feature phones would dive from their 61% US market share in August to the 49% where it is now (April). remix said: "There is impirical data proving my exact points. No matter how many times they have run brand loyalty or purchase intention polls, apple has ALWAYS come out on top." Now as to the use of "empirical data", as you put it... you must understand that there is no way to get empirical data from the future... it simply has not happened yet! So, the best we can ever do today is to get empirical data from NOW, and apply intention data to it in a mathematically consistent method, which is what I am doing. The formula, as I have proven before, is well-known and sound. The method is about the best I can imagine at this point for a truly analytical approach, and so although I admit it cannot be perfect, I am working to improve it as fast as I am able. The data, I will admit, is quite debatable, and for that reason is controversial... but it is the best I can find that actually isolates future intention from current standing.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 10:53 AM 1
Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008
on the point about empirical data from the future. yes you can. you pull up past comparisons. When the old polls were done, they were always pointing towards future purchases. You compare that to phone sales 3-6 months in advance from when the "intention" poll was taken to see if it became reality. Plot those data points for the last 2 years and see what you come up with.. One line for intention, and one line for a 3-6 month ahead OS share per intention. You are comparing "the future", to "the present" by doing that. AKA you find an intention poll from say.. january 2010, you match it to an OS poll from march or june of 2010, and continue that on till the intention poll 3 months ago.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 12:02 PM 0
Okay, this IS how one would handle a prediction, but it only becomes data once the prediction term has come to pass into reality... otherwise it remains a predictive forecast until the day of the forecast's legitimacy arrives. I think we are having a misunderstanding of jargon at this point, and looking back, I think it is partly my fault. I have been referring to all of this stuff as "data" when I really should not have. The fact is that anything that is either "measured directly at this time" or "previously predicted and now at forcast-term" is considered data... the first is "real data", the second is "projected data". To compare real and projected data gives you the basis for measuring accuracy. This is the process that you have above described, and I also touched on in earlier comments, and in that definition we are both correct. However, what I am trying to say is this: the projections/predictions/forecasts I make based on the "data" are not "data" until the time of their potential fulfillment arrives. So, if I make a 6-month-term forecast, it will remain only a forecast until those 6 months are up, at which time it becomes data, along with the directly measured, or "real", data of that same instant in time. Only then can the forecast be compared to reality. It seems to me that you are saying that a "forecast" can instantly be treated as data, because you can compare it to past "forecast outcomes" at the very moment of making this new "forecast", and thus it can be judged as if it has already come to pass. This is the way, it seems to me, that you have been treating my forecast ever since I gave it, even though the main prediction I gave is still six years away from potential fulfillment, and thus six years from being verifiable either way, in my book. To me, it seems as if you are trying to say that you can already authoritatively verify that my prediction has failed six years from now, when my concept of causality and forward-time-bias tells me that you cannot yet make that call with total authority at this moment in time. I think perhaps what you are really trying to tell me is that the comparison of past such data shows a heavy bias to iOS over every other OS, and you are arguing that I cannot trust that data. You are trying to warn me that this intention-based OS loyalty data is bad data. I, on the other hand, am trying to explain why I have no choice but to use this data, and I have given reasons why it could still be considered trustworthy and useful in many respects. One thing needs to be clear, though... no prediction that has not yet reached its term can ever be considered empirical data, so please don't treat my predictions like they have already been compared to "future" empirical data that is yet to exist.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 1:05 PM 0
Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008
alright, i have to admit. i have a delorean Hop in and I'll show u the future... just .. have .. to get to.. 88 .. miles an .. hour. :) yes, thats pretty much exactly what i was saying, if you compare past intentions to past sales, you will see that intentions and sales almost never mirror each other... for this specific category.. cell phones. Thats been my point the whole time. If we cant trust the past data to be accurate, there is no way to trust the present or future data. There would have to be mass education on the consumer side for them to give accurate results (again, they are not lying, they are merely using the iphone as a synonym). if you cant trust intention polls, then you can only take sales data and hypothesis from that with knowlege of the events likely to come that have the most potential to disrupt the system (the rise of WP7, apple taking a public spanking, or complete fall of RIM for example) and make best guess. Well, thats what I do anyways. :)
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 1:11 PM 1
Haha... +1 on the Back To The Future reference... That is a fair assessment, and if your assessment is true, then it means that there is currently no way to predict future sales with the method I use, despite the correctness of the mathematical end of it, because the data collected for the needed transition elements is completely untrustworthy. That would certainly lead to problems on my end for any short-term prediction, as well as long-term ones, so I imagine we will see if my theory, that we can actually trust the intention data thanks to societal group-think theories, holds in this prediction, or if you are correct in that group-think is self-perpetuating but not self-correcting. So, I am hopeful that there IS a way to quantitatively calculate future market share movements, but if I fail, and your qualitative approach is the only viable result, then I will certainly give credit where credit is due.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 5:50 PM 0
So, as I imagine that other folks here are tired of hearing us bicker over this, I am sure everyone would like me to be accountable for my predictions. Up until now, I have been measuring my accuracy by the Chi-squared sum method... that is, I take the square root of the sum of all values of Chi-squared (the value Chi is equal to the linear difference between my prediction and reality, for each predicted market share OS at a given time of prediction that has now come to pass in reality) between the predicted data and the real data when the time of the prediction arrives. My current error of 0.3% is the result of a total Chi-squared of 0.0000087. It is actually remarkably good, if I may say so myself, for being 8 months out already. So, my question is... by what standard would you, remix, prefer I measure my accuracy by? Should I continue to use the Chi-squared method (standard scientific practice for floating error), or would you rather I use a set error as a standard? Also, I have in the past said that I think it will take about two to four years for the market to start to show the difference between your predicted future and my predicted future, although I don't think the final results will actually come to a definite fruition until 2018; however, I believe that, based on my experience thus far, my method has the ability to make very accurate forecasts even in the short-term, and since no one wants to wait for two whole years to see which of us is right, how short a time scale is acceptable for our purposes? Once we can agree upon a standard of measuring error, and a reasonable measure of time for said prediction, I am willing to make a deal with you: if I make a prediction after we agree on this, and I fall outside of the agreed acceptable error range when the time comes due and measured info is available, then I will not make predictions based in this method ever again, and I will never ever mention math or science here for any reason ever again, either. In return, I ask for the opportunity to post another prediction for the same forecast length, measured by the same error standard, to be scrutinized again in the future. If I turn out to be right, then I ought to be posting these predictions regularly until 2014 or beyond, until you are satisfied that my method works. Otherwise, I will never mention this, or anything like it, ever again. So, let us start the negotiating of terms, if you would like to...
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 11:16 AM 0
Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008
no, i dont want u to stop mentioning it. you have every right to. just like i have every right to disagree with it. :) You dont need permission, especially from me. I'm nothing more than a poster like anyone else. i rather like the challenge. Its far and above more intellectually entertaining and stimulating than the usual mudslinging. as far as what data sets i'd prefer, id have to revisit that after rereading up on them when i have time. I havent actually sat down and physically done any stats an analysis in quite some time. Advanced statistics self study was so traumatizing i think i tried to block it out. lol. dont ever do that! To make it viable, it needs to be visited on a yearly basis of some sort. short term goals leading to the long term outcome. Since im changing directions in my life with going from tech to medicine, its unlikely that ill still be trollin the boards in 2018, but ya never know. lol That said, i dont think there will be any life altering changes in 2012. 2013 will be the year WP8 starts gaining momentum on the back of its homogenized PC,phone,video game console roll out. Most of those sales will be from new adopters, which is going to pull more from iOS sales than android, thus reducing iOS marketshare from anywhere between 5-20% of current value. It will also wipe out remaining RIM share down to less than 5% at best, as MS markets for business use with desktop compatibility in the mobile OS. Android's growth will become statistically stagnant with a serious 3rd system competing, but stay above the 50% range for a good while. The entire industry will of course continue to grow and show record after record in sales. By the time the SGS4 comes out, samsung will be poised to take away the "highest selling phone" award from apple. Thats my 2012-2013 prediction.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 11:41 AM 0
Yeah, it is entertaining to debate and calculate... I must say, remix, that although we disagree a lot and vehemently, I do find that once I really understand what you are trying to say, you really aren't being too terribly unreasonable after all. It sort of is like the case-law vs. legistative-law comparison... both are necessary for a complete picture, at least until one comes to a complete knowledge of how both are just two different views or aspects of the same universal truth in the center. We are looking for the same thing, just going about it in very different ways, and getting very different answers at the moment... I can certainly agree to a one-year term for revisiting and evaluating the prior predictions. So, I suppose I will run some different data cases and see where my prediction falls in one year from now, and then I will post my prediction for everyone to see... and in one year, we will take a look at where things have actually gone. You are predicting 5 to 20% down for iOS from current share levels (by exact share percent, or by percentage of current share percent?), BlackBerry/QNX at less than 5% of market, and Android remains near or above 50%, all by this time of year in 2013 or so? Tell you what... could you provide me with the current US market share numbers of your choosing for each major OS, and for feature phones and anything that isn't in a major category otherwise? I have been using averages of all of the values I can find, so I think we need to run our predictions based on sharing the same starting values for market share in the US (and this must be US only... I am not prepared for a worldwide prediction at this point). Since your analysis is largely qualitative, would you mind if I then provided my own numbers (from my poll data averages I'm already using) for the quantitative analysis on my end, which you will not be needing for your prediction? I think if we can agree on the US market share starting point, and the prediction term, then we will have no problem when it is time to compare results. ... and if you want to give other worldwide predictions, or other more specific OEM predictions (like the Samsung Galaxy S IV prediction above), that will be fine too as long as you understand I may not participate in more specific stuff like that. So, lets get our starting point US market share numbers... I think Android, iOS, BlackBerry, Windows Phone, and non-specified/feature are required categories... and I might recommend adding values (albeit small ones) for Symbian or webOS, too, but please let me know what you think about that.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 1:30 PM 0
Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008
we should be close to another statistical report about US. market share so let's start with that to have fresh info. use whatever data u like to make the prediction from there. your much more mathematical to my historical ÷ "reading the tea leaves" so it should make for an interesting difference in our process and prediction. I may ammend my prediction a hair depending on what the data looks like but I feel rather confident as it is. so the span is from the next report till 12/31/2013 I don't mean to come off rude. internet conversations can be easily misconstrued by the inflections the reader puts in to what they are reading. its Natural. I know I write pretty direct sometimes. ;)
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 4:51 PM 0
Cool. I agree that will be a good starting point. Ammending the predictions based on the data in the next report is perfectly fine by me. So, we'll go from this next report until 12/31/2013... so our "predictions" will officially reach maturity on that day. I say we should each give our predicted percentage values for each OS category in the report, and one for all non-categorized/feature devices if they do not include a category for that (as in... take all smart OS's to equal the remainder of market that isn't feature phones as a starting point, essentially, if they do not specify how large the total smartphone market is compared to the entire US market), and we will make sure we agree on the current data before we hit the "go button", so to speak. So, we could post the info in this form: Starting share: percent for each... Android, iOS, WP, BB, etc..., and feature phone = 100% of current US market share Predictions: percent for each... all of the same categories... = 100% of future US market share as of 12/31/2013; one set for you, one set for me. On or after 12/31/2013, as soon as new data on the equivalent future report is available, we will see who is the closest for each entry... but I am sure that iOS and Android will likely be the highlights. Beyond that, feel free to attach other non-competing predictions of further interest outside of our official comparison as we see fit, just for fun! Alright, so can we agree on this format? As for the "writing direct on the internet" thing, I do the same thing, so I can't blame you, and I apologize if I have ever come across as offensive or offended myself. I admit I'm a little like the cockatoo that raises his crest and stands on his tip-toes to try to look a little taller than the other cockatoo... just a little! LOL! Either way, no hard feelings? I say lets do the predictions, and just have fun with it. I don't mind being wrong, and for me this is about trying to do the right thing by testing an idea more than anything else. I look forward to seeing if my theory has any merit to it, or not, and I hope we can get along and have a good time here at PhoneArena in the process. (Handshake)
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 6:11 PM 0
I also ought to point out that the data in this survey is only marginally useful to me, as it cannot be seperated out by which OS the transitionees are coming from, so that makes it difficult to use. I can compare it to the totals for each metric line, though, but beyond that I would have to be able to see their source data to know if it can be seperated out the way I need it to be. Besides, like I said before, the 56% that they quote here is on the super-high end... I am showing a current average of about 27% right now between all of the other analysis houses I'm tapping, and even if I was to add this at standard weight to the other existing data, the average would only rise to just over 28% over the entire US market. Now, in my own neighborhood and locality, we must live in a different world here because it is like 99% of people I know around here now have the iPhone in its various iterations, and alot of them got iPads as well. I have one friend who just picked up a Nokia Lumia 710 on Monday, and I have a handful of friends and a neighbor who have Android devices. So, here where I live, it is pretty darn skewed for whatever reason.
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 9:20 AM 0
Posts: 328; Member since: Jan 15, 2012
baaa. (says the isheep)
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 3:59 AM 8
Posts: 156; Member since: Jul 17, 2010
What's your problem? Did the iFans ever insult the android users? no, so stfu please... :)
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 6:54 AM 2
Posts: 17181; Member since: Jun 17, 2009
Are you trying to rip off the signature laugh of my namesake? http://kryptoknightcomics.blog
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 8:01 AM 0
Posts: 590; Member since: Oct 24, 2011
if you ask me most of these people are dumbies (not only the iPhone wanters) even in math a recent survey in facebook: in math: 9-5+5x0+3=? if the answer was 3 they like if the answer was 7 they share 800 people shared 1500 people liked and if most people don't know math that means that most people don't have a clue on phones and because iPhone is thought of as a god among phones because of its many followers I admit before I knew anything about phones I wanted an iPhone and after my first serious phone the Nokia C6-01
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 4:21 AM 3
Posts: 590; Member since: Oct 24, 2011
I got more interested in phones and now if someone asks if to pick a iP4S or a SGSII I would reccomend sgsii or some other phones people think that iPhone is something different well today I managed to get my class together and go out with them when a certain question popped up who wants an iPhone 4S? out of 24 people only 1 person said ''Me'' that was the person that 1 year ago thought android was a phone and symbian was a computer, iPad a music player,iPod a cd player and Mac - mcdonalds... so yes alot of people now are getting smarter but alot of people remain dumb about phones
posted on Apr 12, 2012, 4:26 AM 2
Send a warning to post author
Send a warning to Selected user.
The user has 0 warnings currently.
Next warning will result in ban!
Ban user and delete all posts
Message to PhoneArena moderator (optional):