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Analyst: Apple iPhone will peak with 68% of the U.S. smartphone market

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Analyst: Apple iPhone will peak with 68% of the U.S. smartphone market
Predicting the future is a dicey game. Some will do analysis for hours, while others are content to shake up the ol' magic 8 ball and get an answer from that. And when the subject matter you are trying to predict is future sales of the Apple iPhone, you're dealing with a fluid industry that can change at the snap of a finger.

Industry analyst Horace Dediu from Asymco wanted to try to figure out what percentage of the U.S. smartphone market the Apple iPhone will have captured when it peaks. The peak will probably take place when everyone who wants an iPhone has purchased one. Replacement sales will be leading the way and the number of new iPhone buyers will be growing more slowly.

"We also know from the plot of the market that F = .91 is reached around February 2017. So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US. Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017."-Horace Dediu, analyst, Asymco

Using a mathematical formula that we can't even pretend to understand, Dediu computes that the Apple iPhone will reach 90% penetration of the U.S.market (which is considered saturation) when 68% of the U.S. population sports one. The analyst sees this taking place in February 2017, so be prepared. At that time, Dediu sees 180 million Americans with an iPhone in their pocket or purse.


source: Asymco via Forbes

58 Comments
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posted on 14 Dec 2013, 12:08 13

1. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Except he forgets that worldwide and in the US, there is absolutely zero reason to think that Apple will nearly double its current market share.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 12:42 9

2. darkkjedii (Posts: 22065; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Yeah zero reason to a hater like you. You meet any apple news with hate, and negativity dude, and for what? Do you honestly think your influencing people with this constant nagging on apple, or changing anyone's mind lol?

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 12:50 16

3. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Are you even worth responding to? All I'm saying is that with sales trends in the US being what they are for the last couple of years, there is zero reason to think that those trends will be reversed, and that an extra 30 percent of people will suddenly say "ya know, I want an iPhone."

You are delusional if you think that all I do is "hate on Apple," and as much as you think you're being objective, you're often too quick to attack people who don't belong to the Cult of I.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 12:55 9

4. darkkjedii (Posts: 22065; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Snig we've both been coming to PA for a long time, you longer than me. Your history speaks for itself, and yes dude all you do is hate on apple, when on an apple article. 50% of the time, when on other articles, it's what you do dude...it's all good.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 13:01 2

5. Sauce (unregistered)


I've edited this post like 3 times because I'm speechless and irritated by this shenanigans lol. Need more open minded "techies" who look at both sides of the table instead of flavored fanboyism.

Also, what's up with this trend of people throwing around the term "market share" like they know what they're talking about? Lol before anyone gets butthurt, it's a general statement, and not direct to Sniggly.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 13:08 7

7. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Look, Jedi, if you actually paid any attention you'd see me defending Apple or taking others to task when they make ill informed statements about Apple half the time.

So no, you really know nothing about me.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 13:26 3

10. darkkjedii (Posts: 22065; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Ok Snig, but the proof IS in the pudding. I'm not one of these stupid fanboys, who dislikes you cuz you don't like the OS I use. You and I have called each other out before, yet never have we had a problem with each other, so I'm not going there. You do not like apple/iOS/iPhone/Cook/Jobs/iPod/iPad/apple sauce/apple jacks/apple pie//candy apples (green or red lol). JK dude, no disrespect, just jabbing you about being so anti apple. It's cool bro...

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 14:03 3

14. saurik (Posts: 86; Member since: 13 May 2013)


You forgot to add Coca Cola on that list, bro.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 14:10 1

16. darkkjedii (Posts: 22065; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


iCoca Cola for snig lol +1

posted on 18 Dec 2013, 00:11

58. HockeyDood (Posts: 72; Member since: 14 May 2010)


Regardless of what Sniggly has said in the past, what he stated is 100% correct. Based on recent sales numbers there is absolutely no reason to project that not only will those numbers reverse in the next 18-24 months, but to reverse on such a level as this analyst has projected is purely asinie. Instead of anybody simply attacking what he is saying (not saying you are jedii, I'm just saying) without considering his points is immature and foolish.

posted on 15 Dec 2013, 16:09 3

51. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1175; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


You hit the nail on the head Sniggly. This is squed flawed data at it's best. Last week another analyst had Windows picking up iPhones lunch.

I just perosnally don't see 92% of America wanting aniPhone....no hate just thoughtful reasoning, based on people like my niece a straight up Iphone lover turning her iPhone 5 in for a Note II last year.

She plans on getting a Note 4 and is not going back. Lots of people did this causing iPhone sales to weaken, and eliminating the 5C due to this weaking completely.

I wonder how he came to this conclusion, and where he got this data.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 14:23 6

19. rusticguy (Posts: 2828; Member since: 11 Aug 2012)


As if yours constant +1's make any difference.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 14:29 7

21. JerryTime (Posts: 468; Member since: 09 Nov 2013)


I know right? +1 to this hater to that, never anything constructive. If you don't support Apple and drink the Apple iKool Aid you're a hater apparently.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 15:03 1

23. darkkjedii (Posts: 22065; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Nope, but you are...of the jedii +1

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 20:09 2

32. piyath (Posts: 514; Member since: 23 Mar 2012)


Don't worry bro. Idiots are all over us. That's what makes us geniuses.. I was an android FANBOY for 5 years. But now I'm an iphone fan. I know the reason. I won't tell it to idiots. I tell it to bright ppl like you. Apple has the best quality yet on a smartphone in the world and one day they should dominate the market for sure.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 21:28 2

33. RobotMan (Posts: 145; Member since: 13 Apr 2012)


Ha.ha.ha.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 13:24 2

9. CreeDiddy (Posts: 845; Member since: 04 Nov 2011)


I hate to say it, but this article is right. Right now Android is loosing market share within the US. Windows has not made an impact in the smartphone market quite yet, besides in Europe so far. Just wait until the iPhone 6 comes out with the larger screen. If Apple releases two phones 4.7 and 5.5 or similar many people that have Android phones will switch over to the iPhone. Many people like the bigger screen of Android phones, but the software is less desirable to work with.

Mark my words the US market share will be roughly 56-58% once the iPhone 6 releases and towards the end of 2014.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 13:39 8

12. tedkord (Posts: 12272; Member since: 17 Jun 2009)


Android gained share last quarter, more share than Apple did in both percentage and total numbers. This was during a launch quarter for Apple (by accounts, it's biggest launch ever) in which no major Android phones were launched.

The final word here is that no one knows what's going to happen. WP could take off. Another player could enter the game and upset the whole dynamic. When it comes to it, anyone predicting this is just guessing.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 19:16

30. nctx77 (Posts: 2095; Member since: 03 Sep 2013)


Umm there was no iphone 5s/5c last quarter my friend. Even still, iphone has been gaining on the U.S. smartphone market in recent months. Add in China mobile with 700 million subscribers and the pending iphone 6 next year and you have an interesting scenario. Of course android will keep the lead worldwide mostly because of junk phones that Apple doesn't even try to compete in. If you try to mention the 5c, it's actually right under the s4 in sales.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 14:05 6

15. jroc74 (Posts: 6015; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


"Just wait until" [insert some thing the iPhone adds, does here]

Those 3 words have been mentioned for the past 3 years...and it hasnt really changed anything.

Wait til the iPhone goes to Verizon...The Death of Android!!!!
Wait til the iPhone is available on other carriers... The Death of Android!!!
Wait til the iPhone is cheaper...The Death of Android....

So now its gonna be the iPhone 6 with a bigger screen making the huge difference...doesnt the iPad Mini sell like hotcakes? Isnt it around 7 "....screen size is the only thing separating Android and the iPhone? Many ppl will switch if Apple releases specific screen sizes? The iPhone being AT&T exclusive didnt stop ppl from buying Android in AT&T. Same for when it came to Verizon, Sprint, T Mo...and now Cricket, Boost, ect.

Everything the iPhone has done from coming to Verizon to now hasnt really had a major impact on Android or Android's market share. Some ppl are acting like Android hasnt/isnt getting better with each year. So now this time its screen size that gonna make the difference....I thought Apple made an iPhone with a bigger screen. I guess it wasnt big enough....

"the software is less desirable to work with"

Sorry...but this isnt 2008, 2009. If one cant see the progress Android has made since 2.1.....I dont really know what to say except one hasnt used Android in the early days. Both iOS and Android has gotten better over the years. iOS didnt start out as good as it is now ( not counting the iOS 7 issues...lol)

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 14:16 2

17. darkkjedii (Posts: 22065; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Techs gotten too big. All over the world people love all these top platforms, nothing's dying, nor will anything do any major changing amongst the ranks in the next year or so. If apple does indeed go with two larger screen iPhones, judging from numerous polls, as well as people's posts on PA, It'll mos def boost apples market share, but nothing too substantial. Androids on too many different types, and price ranges to really slip. All of em'll slip a few percentage points here n there, and they'll all rise a few. Overall it'll even out. We gotta wait n see. Me personally, I'd love, and welcome a larger screen Iphone. The lack of a bigger screen is one of many reasons I have my note 2

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 21:53 1

35. JakeLee (banned) (Posts: 1021; Member since: 02 Nov 2013)


Let's do something different :
Let's wait until 64-bit Android hits the shelves.
We will have to redefine the term "fiasco"

Remember how miserably Pentium Pro and Itanium failed? Combine both, that's what we gotta witness.

posted on 15 Dec 2013, 05:14 1

44. JMartin22 (Posts: 1984; Member since: 30 Apr 2013)


You're still throwing that spin around, even though a Linux developer debunked it already? You're desperate to show love for your home team huh?

posted on 15 Dec 2013, 07:03 1

46. JakeLee (banned) (Posts: 1021; Member since: 02 Nov 2013)


I'd like to know who's this *Linux* developer.
I hope he knows ARM, not only Linux.

And if you think Android is just a variation of Linux, you are dead wrong.
The only thing Android shares with Linux is the kernel which is very little.
I'm really curious how much a *Linux* developer knows about *Android* on *ARM* running *Apps*.

Do you think Pentium Pro and Itanium failed because they were bad or the designers were incapable?
No, both CPUs were technical jewels created by top notch engineers.

Pentium Pro :
What a delightful design for the time! The problem was that Windows 3.1 / 95 was still a hybrid OS between 16 and 32-bit. While Pentium Pro performed extremely well on the the pure 32-bit NT, all those switchings between 16 and 32-bit instructions on Windows 95 made the CPU's enhanced features backfire, heavily crippling the performance.

Itanium :
A masterpiece. Finally getting rid of the x86 architecture, THE worst one known to humanity.
Alas, its x86 emulation simply sucked. And despite MS' best efforts, hardly anyone dared to publish a separate Itanium version of their SW.

Ring the bell? ARMv8 has both :
- 32/64-bit switching is costly, just like the Pentium Pro
- A completely new ISA, just like the Itanium

Admitted, the AArch32 emulation on ARMv8 isn't nearly as bad as the x86 emulation on Itanium, but a new ISA means it's NOT binary compatible with ARMv7.

It's crucial making everything executing 64-bit instructions. A single task executing 32-bit instructions will cripple the whole system.

The devs will release separate 64-bit version of their apps? Stop dreaming. Search at Play Store now for apps requiring 4.3 or above. The few ones you will find are from OEMs that only run on some of their devices, and the other ones some "Hello Jelly Bean" apps.

Blame Google for this.

posted on 15 Dec 2013, 11:00

49. jroc74 (Posts: 6015; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


1. I dont see what that has to do with anything....

2. If what you say is true about Pentium Pro and IA...didnt newer, better chips get built? Doesnt that happen in just about any field, market.....better hardware gets made? What cpu from around that time is still going strong with newer software, OS's?

3. You act like phone manufactures cant use newer cpu's....or Android cant be developed around newer cpu's. Every Nexus has been designed with newer cpu/gpu ...a reference hardware...for the most part. If thats really the case....see more Intel chips inside Android.

?

And I just found this link....already knew Intel was in some Android devices....

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57613424-94/heads-up-apple-here-comes-64-bit-android-on-intel/

?

posted on 15 Dec 2013, 18:13

52. JakeLee (banned) (Posts: 1021; Member since: 02 Nov 2013)


2. Pentium Pro got further enhanced then since Pentium II and so on.
Itanium is a different story though :
http://www.eejournal.com/archives/articles/20110309-itanium/?printView=true
Intel's current i3, i5, i7 are all x86 based, compromised ones. Intel failed to ditch x86 with Itanium.

3. All the newer CPUs you saw every year are all based on the ARMv7 architecture (Cortex-A8 ,9 ,15)
You can hardly make 32-bit ARM any faster than the current Cortex A15. The limited number of its architectural registers is bottlenecking pretty much everything.
x86 is a completely different story though. You shouldn't believe people saying 64-bit ARM being a gimmick or overkill mentioning 64-bit Windows. They know nothing about ARM.

The next ARMv8 is a 64-bit architecture with characteristics of both Pentium Pro and Itanium. That makes the transition very very hard :
- it doesn't like switching between 32/64-bit
- It features a different ISA.

Apple did the transition to 64-bit exceptionally seamlessly thanks to :
- fat binary deployment
- strict sandboxing
- iron grip over the AppStore
- extremely low level of fragmentation

And they are exactly points where Google lacks heavily :
- lackluster deployment system
- no sandboxing
- laisser-faire policy at Play Store
- extremely high level of fragmentation

Wow, I smell trouble.

PS : I'd stay away from Android on Intel. There are compatibility issues.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 19:34

31. djcody (Posts: 103; Member since: 17 Apr 2013)


Will not happen with it price, if price of iPhone drop then may are that happen, no other way. Its to expensive to most people when you have more less expensive choices

posted on 16 Dec 2013, 08:08 1

55. buccob (Posts: 2578; Member since: 19 Jun 2012)


Yes, many people are waiting for a bigger iPhone screen... but ever more people find the OS lacking... Tablets are getting closer in market share... and there is no doubt that Android is more functional and feature rich in any of its forms, be it TouchWiz, Xperia Timescape, LG's, or just plain Android...

A bigger screen allows you to a better multitask with multiple windows or floating apps (which I use all the time)... and everything else you already know (widgets, customization, app defaults...) and finally HARWARE options... (not just a 3.5" and 4" screen)

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 16:43

26. Topcat488 (Posts: 1396; Member since: 29 Sep 2012)


Well the biggest Chinese Mobile Phone Company has just signed up to sell Apple iphone so maybe it's time for Apple to start look over there for profits, Apple is a survivor.

posted on 14 Dec 2013, 18:31 1

27. nctx77 (Posts: 2095; Member since: 03 Sep 2013)


Your right. 50% of androids market share is junk. Apple doesn't compete in the junk market.

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