Analyst: Launch weekend sales for the Apple iPhone 6 and Apple iPhone 6 Plus could disappoint

posted by Alan F. / Sep 17, 2014, 7:34 PM

Analyst: Launch weekend sales for the Apple iPhone 6 and Apple iPhone 6 Plus could disappoint

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi doesn't want to rain on Apple's parade, but you might want to carry an umbrella after listening to the Wall Streeter. Despite a record number of pre-orders for the Apple iPhone 6 and Apple iPhone 6 Plus, Sacconaghi is convinced that the number of launch weekend orders could fall short of the 9 million tallied last year for the Apple iPhone 5s and Apple iPhone 5c.

The analyst says that there are three main reasons why last year's opening weekend sales might not be topped. One is the announcement made by Apple that 4 million units of both phones were pre-ordered. The analyst says this figure, and the expected delivery date for new orders, is a sign that supplies are tight. In addition, unlike last year, China is not included as a launch country. This removes quite a large number of potential opening weekend orders. Lastly, unlike last year when the Apple iPhone 5c was released at a lower price than the iPhone 5s, this year there is no low priced SKU for those seeking an iBargain.

Sacconaghi told his clients that the 4 million units pre-ordered is a positive sign. He also states that first-weekend sales are usually more a function of supply rather than demand. While some expect Apple to sell 10 million iPhone 6 units this weekend, the analyst expects that Apple will actually report first weekend sales of 7 million to 8 million units. The analyst says that this is not the end of the world for Apple and continues to have an Outperform ranking on the stock, with a target of $108. Apple closed on Wednesday at $101.58.

Thanks for the tip Suzanne!

source: StreetInsider

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69 Comments

1. XperiaFanZone

Posts: 2277; Member since: Sep 21, 2012

EDIT: Analyst.....OK ... ADD: edited the comment a millisecond before you replied. ^_^

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 7:36 PM 3

2. Alan01

Posts: 602; Member since: Mar 21, 2012

Don't shoot the messenger; I'm merely reporting what a Wall Street analyst is saying. Regards, Alan F.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 7:38 PM 6

50. Droid_X_Doug

Posts: 5993; Member since: Dec 22, 2010

Is Apple required to report their launch weekend sales? I don't think so (no legal requirement like 10Q or what-not). Therefore, in the absence of a legal reporting requirement, if Apple is silent on launch weekend sales, they under-performed. Time to stay tuned to this story, as it is a-developing.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 11:23 PM 1

53. Doakie

Posts: 2478; Member since: May 06, 2009

Android owner here. I don't believe Analysts at all. I'm sure this is going to be a HUGE sale. I fully expect tons of Android owners to move back to iOS. #theexodus

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 11:31 PM 2

55. tacarat

Posts: 854; Member since: Apr 22, 2013

Well, at least the ones that switched for the screen sizes. I'm curious about the ones that don't switch back.

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 12:03 AM 0

3. greenelektron

Posts: 537; Member since: Sep 10, 2014

These people could be biased at some point. Consumers don't really care about this. Well if you're a stock owner, be scared. ( I own apple stocks - in TradeHero LOL)

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 7:43 PM 1

26. The-Sailor-Man

Posts: 1095; Member since: Mar 25, 2014

90% of iPhone owners own APPL stock as well. That's what makes them so combative and person to person iAdverizors. This is the biggest thing than St.Jobs succeeded .

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 8:46 PM 1

27. Scott93274

Posts: 6032; Member since: Aug 06, 2013

Ha! I talk a lot of crap about Apple, but I have some of their stock in my 401K program. lol, I completely forgot!!!

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 9:01 PM 0

4. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2146; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

No way. I would say at least 15-20 million and not 10 million. The demand of this phone is stupid ridiculous.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 7:45 PM 3

5. reckless562

Posts: 1153; Member since: Sep 09, 2013

just like its users

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 7:48 PM 24

11. bigmaster

Posts: 198; Member since: Sep 05, 2014

Well said......LMAO!

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 8:09 PM 9

15. reckless562

Posts: 1153; Member since: Sep 09, 2013

[:-D)

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 8:19 PM 2

33. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2146; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

Your entitled to your opinion. Just admit that no single Android manufacturer has no chance against Apple. I like competition, but you don't see the demand in Android products like Apple products. Even Samsung is starting to slip a bit.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 9:32 PM 0

44. VZWuser76

Posts: 4974; Member since: Mar 04, 2010

There lies the difference. You guys always say "no single android phone can compete with the iPhone". Did you ever stop to think that if there was only one android model, it might very well be stiff competition for the iPhone? What happening in android is the same thing that happened last year with the 5s/5c and this year with the 6/6+. It splinters the numbers and spreads them across different manufacturers. It waters down the numbers because people have more choice when shopping android. Granted if there was only one android OEM and one model running it, they might not have the market share they have now, simply because people may not like the implementation on that model. The scenario is similar in the auto industry. In the mid size car market Ford had the Taurus that competed with GM's Chevy Monte Carlo, Pontiac Grand Prix, Oldsmobile Intrigue, and the Buick Regal. No one GM company could compete with the Taurus, but using GM's total they could compete with Ford. If you wanted Ford, you had only one model to choose from, if you wanted GM, you four models to choose from. Just like if you want Apple, you have one to two models to choose from, where if you want Android you have ten to twenty times the number of phones to choose from. So it's not really comparing things equally. And that goes for MS & BB as well, since they also have more than one or two models to choose from. The only way you could fairly compare individual phones is if every OS had the same number of phones.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 10:18 PM 5

56. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2146; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

I value your opinion, but I find many flaws with your analogy. Apple is a single manufacturer of a smartphone, just like HTC, LG, Sony are SINGLE Android manufacturer's that make smartphones. You simply can't combine Android and say that its more dominant than Apple. The marketshare pie is just what it is....smartphones encompassed by every single Android manufacturer. Market share does not tell you any financial progress or how well a company is doing or any long term success. It only provides customer choice, while Android company's compete mainly on price. Android is simply over saturated commodity with so many manufacturer's trying to sell the same product within the same space. This as a result provides limitations to each company's revenue and profitable goals. The stand out and spokesperson for Android is simply Samsung. Now that Android's manufacturing quality has improved throughout each manufacturer, consumer choice has risen as well. Apple is in the driver's seat as the iPhone will continue to dominate the market for the next 2-3 years. Put this in perspective....If Apple sold an average of 30 million iPhone's per quarter for the next 5 years, they would lack market growth, but their profitability would be sustained over the years, thus 10% global market share is equal to 10 Android smartphone manufacturer's within the smartphone space. Apple's profitability is not dictated by consumer's opting for Android, but simply the value, quality, eco system, integration that consumers get with their products. Thus they keep the subsidy of their smartphone at $649, $749, $849, $949 all day long.

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 12:04 AM 1

58. meanestgenius

Posts: 21769; Member since: May 28, 2014

By your analogy, Samsung is the is the smartphone maker that will dominate the market as they are the largest smartphone maker. Yes, they provide different models at every price point, but so does Apple i.e.-4, 4s, 5s, 5c, 6 and 6plus. Samsung just happens to provide more models.

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 12:42 AM 1

59. meanestgenius

Posts: 21769; Member since: May 28, 2014

Apple will still dominate in profit share for the time being, but Samsung will dominate in market share, even with them slipping a little. It's only a matter of time before Samsung overtakes Apple in profit share, due to the sheer number of handsets they can produce, including the high end ones.

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 12:49 AM 1

65. willard12 unregistered

Samsung is also a single phone manufacturer and they are the world's largest smartphone and cell phone manufacturer. Not Apple. Apple leads in terms of profits. They are right up there with the oil companies.

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 4:39 AM 2

67. TBomb

Posts: 1394; Member since: Dec 28, 2012

Which makes you think... If Apple sells less phones, but their profit is that much higher... how big is their profit margin? In repsonse to #56... The original comments were about demand... you made it about money.

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 7:59 AM 0

6. PapaSmurf

Posts: 10457; Member since: May 14, 2012

15-20 million lol okay.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 7:49 PM 7

34. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2146; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

Ok. 4 million preorders. Only 11 million to go. Over the weekend expect at least 20 million sold. Mark my words.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 9:33 PM 0

7. darkkjedii

Posts: 30964; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Crazy stupid ridiculous sonnnn

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 7:51 PM 1

16. reckless562

Posts: 1153; Member since: Sep 09, 2013

stop!!!

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 8:20 PM 4

18. darkkjedii

Posts: 30964; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Nope.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 8:21 PM 1

23. reckless562

Posts: 1153; Member since: Sep 09, 2013

ur such a contradiction, no one takes anything u say seriously, even if u mean it. so unless u have an i"phone" just to be a Troll on purpose, at least ADMIT what ur doing. .....no one likes a liar

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 8:28 PM 3

25. darkkjedii

Posts: 30964; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Nope.

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 8:44 PM 1

32. gregoryyy3 unregistered

How is jedi a troll when you're bad mouthing apple users on an article about iPhone? Looks like you're the contradiction

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 9:28 PM 3

66. reckless562

Posts: 1153; Member since: Sep 09, 2013

because he "claims" to have a Note too!!!! y have both, unless u use it to help create music ??? (garage band, Logic, electric guitar plug-ins w/ a pedal) mabey mobile movie editing, but i doubt it, kuz i would jus edit on my ACTUAL Macbook Pro music creation, thats literally the ONLY thing that the iphone is good for, n he has never mentioned that. so hes jus tryna look cool i guess, like all of ther other iTards out there p.s. and its camera SOFTWARE (chips are sony made), yo, someone needs to HACK and transfer it over to android phones, ESPECIALY Sony phones, seriously

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 7:03 AM 0

38. blitzkreig

Posts: 103; Member since: Aug 18, 2014

Holy crap.. That's a LOTTA muscle darkk. Are you big on protein shakes & mass building powders? Hope not.. Lean, natural mass is always best. But good job with the muscle sculpting anyway..

posted on Sep 17, 2014, 9:42 PM 0

63. darkkjedii

Posts: 30964; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Thanx blitz, whole food, especially tilapia and veggies. 1 shake before I workout, and one after, mixed with fruit punch for carbs to replenish glycogen. Other than that, just plain hard work.

posted on Sep 18, 2014, 1:30 AM 0

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