As many as 350 million Apple iPhones will be upgraded over the next 12-18 months claims report

As many as 350 million Apple iPhones will be upgraded over the next 12-18 months claims report
Ask two Wall Street analysts if today is Thursday and you're likely to get two conflicting responses. Just the other day, we told you that New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu told clients that Apple will report lower iPhone revenue in 2019 and 2020. Ferragu's theory is that the success of the iPhone X (he figures that Apple will sell 65 million units of its tenth anniversary iPhone this fiscal year) has resulted in moving forward some 2019 and 2020 phone sales to this year. In addition, he spoke about a longer upgrading cycle that will stunt future iPhone revenue.

On the other hand, an analysis from GBH Insights, in a note to clients seen by 9to5 Mac, suggests that a huge tidal wave of iPhone upgrades will soon wash over the world. The note says that "the window of opportunity" over the upcoming 12 to 18 months could result in as many as 350 million iPhone upgrades to take place. These are the iPhone owners who decided for one reason or another, to sit on their hands instead of purchasing an iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus or an iPhone X. GBH expects pricing and new features available on the 2018 iPhone models will motivate these iPhone owners to upgrade their current units. The firm also says that the new models could help kick off a 'a renaissance of growth' in China, where Apple has been slowly rebounding after a tough fiscal 2017.

GBH is generally bullish on Apple, expecting the company to hit its target of $50 billion in services revenue by 2020. The note says that Apple is monetizing the 1.3 billion current iPhone owners, a move which can generate tons of cash for the tech giant. He does see one fly in the ointment, and that is the possible delay of the 6.1-inch LCD model that we have come to know as iPhone 9. Expected to be the lowest priced and best selling model among the three 2018 iPhones to be unveiled next month, issues with the LCD screen and TrueDepth Camera are reportedly behind a rumored two-month delay for this particular device.

Keep in mind that the 350 million figure that GBH is writing about is for iPhone upgrades only. There are many consumers out there still using the iPhone 6 (see the image at the top of this article) and iPhone 6s that are dying to get their hands on one of the three new versions of Apple's iconic handset. This peak estimate doesn't include sales to those who switch from another platform, or make the iPhone their first smartphone purchase.

source: 9to5Mac

FEATURED VIDEO

27 Comments

1. emvxl

Posts: 142; Member since: Sep 29, 2009

And I (fortunately or unfortunately) will be one of them. Actually, my son and myself, if I can't fix my son's 6 GPS issues.

4. BullaBoss

Posts: 141; Member since: Jul 17, 2018

I'll be upgrading next summer.

9. Atechguy0

Posts: 918; Member since: Aug 03, 2018

350 million in 12 to 18 months. If it's the 18 months then it's sales as usual. Stagnant. If it's sales of 350 in 12 months, then that would be a 50% growth, which I definitely do not see happening with Apple. It's amazing the results you can get if you throw numbers around, like this article.

13. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

It's a mind trick, make it look like you're bullish but instead be saying things as usual. This way your investors won't sell and run and you keep the gravy train going.

2. Jrod99

Posts: 778; Member since: Jan 15, 2016

X plus for me. 3 to 4 year phone for me.

3. Soundjudgment

Posts: 370; Member since: Oct 10, 2016

X Plus and new Apple Watch for me. I like to buy in 'sets.'

5. NateDiaz

Posts: 1092; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

I am not sure this year and if size exceeds 5.8 it's a no from my side. Next year for sure.

15. thedizzle

Posts: 202; Member since: Oct 05, 2017

From one of our case suppliers listings for the XS Plus and 9 screen size, 6.5 and 6.1 respectively.

6. torr310

Posts: 1705; Member since: Oct 27, 2011

or people will choose last year's discounted iPhone X ?

8. rebretz

Posts: 115; Member since: Dec 26, 2011

If last year's iPhone X had T-Mobile's new band support I would pick up a discounted X in a second.

7. rebretz

Posts: 115; Member since: Dec 26, 2011

I won't be upgrading but I will be moving to an iPhone from a Pixel. As much as I love Android and Pixel there are a few items with it that have finally pushed me to the other side.

17. darkkjedii

Posts: 31624; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I’d keep my Pixel if I were you, just have both. I just got my Note 9, and I have an X. Best combo until it’s Note 9, and iPhone X Plus.

10. Aircrackng

Posts: 56; Member since: Jan 09, 2015

I like my iPhone SE i wish they would push another tiny phone 5 inch or smaller, i can do just as much with a compact phone as is possible on a larger phone without hindering my real life activities such as running or other physical activities that worry me far less with a more solid compact phone.

11. GreenMan

Posts: 2698; Member since: Nov 09, 2015

While iPhones certainly are expensive when compared to Androids; things start to look a tad bit better in favor of Apple when you consider their ridiculously long OS upgrade cycle. The iPhone 5s, for instance, was launched back in 2013 and its set to receive the latest iOS 12! Meanwhile; my S6 launched in 2015 and bought in late 2016 will never receive Oreo; let alone Pie! Oh well, G'Day!

20. Rager722 unregistered

The only reason 5s is getting an update is because iOS 11 was so bad and buggy.

23. Rafael1703

Posts: 20; Member since: Apr 22, 2014

Well, it is getting one anyway, which shows some "care" from Apple...

28. Sammy_DEVIL737

Posts: 1529; Member since: Nov 28, 2016

This ^

12. strategic_developer

Posts: 1627; Member since: Jul 17, 2018

This is just stupid for so many reasons. First off, this isn't even a prediction. It is expected. It is expected that Apple over the next 24 months, will sell roughly 400M+ devices running iOS. Lets say sales stay equal to last year and they sell 220M+ phones in a year. So that means if you add 6 months or 1/2 as many you get 340M sells. so saying 350M is within the parameters of expected sales amount. Just like I can say, as long as Samsung stays on its 75M-80M sells per quarter pace, that in 18 months, Samsung will selling 450M-500M devices. How is this news? These are just obvious projections that require common sense to come up with.

14. Humanoid

Posts: 1226; Member since: Dec 11, 2017

How many will perform better than now? At least 15%?

16. whatev

Posts: 2419; Member since: Oct 28, 2015

I’m upgrading mine at the end of the year, I’m picking the next gen regular size iPhone X

18. drunkenjay

Posts: 1702; Member since: Feb 11, 2013

im keeping my x and might switch for the s10 or next years iphone xi

21. EC112987

Posts: 1216; Member since: Nov 10, 2014

Been on IOS 12 for a while now so no I won’t be upgrading my iPhone X and my SE will always be my baby lol iphones are awesome but upgrading every year isn’t a must. Really trying to go on a 2 year upgrade cycle

22. Rafael1703

Posts: 20; Member since: Apr 22, 2014

I'll upgrade my 6S Plus when Apple decides to launch an OLED iPhone with a below 800$ price...

24. Godlymansean

Posts: 339; Member since: Apr 14, 2017

keep waiting

25. Godlymansean

Posts: 339; Member since: Apr 14, 2017

XS Plus 4 me

26. MarvzIsFallen

Posts: 646; Member since: Aug 11, 2017

X plus, apple watch series 4 and ipad pro for me. My wallet is ready.

27. Jrod99

Posts: 778; Member since: Jan 15, 2016

Keeping my series 3 but getting a x plus and iPad Pro when it’s released.

Latest Stories

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. You can order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers at https://www.parsintl.com/phonearena or use the Reprints & Permissions tool that appears at the bottom of each web page. Visit https://www.parsintl.com/ for samples and additional information.