As many as 350 million Apple iPhones will be upgraded over the next 12-18 months claims report
by Alan Friedman / Aug 23, 2018, 11:56 AM
Ask two Wall Street analysts if today is Thursday and you're likely to get two conflicting responses. Just the other day, we told you that New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu told clients that Apple will report lower iPhone revenue in 2019 and 2020. Ferragu's theory is that the success of the iPhone X (he figures that Apple will sell 65 million units of its tenth anniversary iPhone this fiscal year) has resulted in moving forward some 2019 and 2020 phone sales to this year. In addition, he spoke about a longer upgrading cycle that will stunt future iPhone revenue.
9to5 Mac, suggests that a huge tidal wave of iPhone upgrades will soon wash over the world. The note says that "the window of opportunity" over the upcoming 12 to 18 months could result in as many as 350 million iPhone upgrades to take place. These are the iPhone owners who decided for one reason or another, to sit on their hands instead of purchasing an iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus or an iPhone X. GBH expects pricing and new features available on the 2018 iPhone models will motivate these iPhone owners to upgrade their current units. The firm also says that the new models could help kick off a 'a renaissance of growth' in China, where Apple has been slowly rebounding after a tough fiscal 2017.On the other hand, an analysis from GBH Insights, in a note to clients seen by
GBH is generally bullish on Apple, expecting the company to hit its target of $50 billion in services revenue by 2020. The note says that Apple is monetizing the 1.3 billion current iPhone owners, a move which can generate tons of cash for the tech giant. He does see one fly in the ointment, and that is the possible delay of the 6.1-inch LCD model that we have come to know as iPhone 9. Expected to be the lowest priced and best selling model among the three 2018 iPhones to be unveiled next month, issues with the LCD screen and TrueDepth Camera are reportedly behind a rumored two-month delay for this particular device.
Keep in mind that the 350 million figure that GBH is writing about is for iPhone upgrades only. There are many consumers out there still using the iPhone 6 (see the image at the top of this article) and iPhone 6s that are dying to get their hands on one of the three new versions of Apple's iconic handset. This peak estimate doesn't include sales to those who switch from another platform, or make the iPhone their first smartphone purchase.
Posts: 140; Member since: Sep 29, 2009
And I (fortunately or unfortunately) will be one of them. Actually, my son and myself, if I can't fix my son's 6 GPS issues.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 12:02 PM 0
Posts: 141; Member since: Jul 17, 2018
I'll be upgrading next summer.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 12:26 PM 0
Posts: 918; Member since: Aug 03, 2018
350 million in 12 to 18 months. If it's the 18 months then it's sales as usual. Stagnant. If it's sales of 350 in 12 months, then that would be a 50% growth, which I definitely do not see happening with Apple. It's amazing the results you can get if you throw numbers around, like this article.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 12:58 PM 1
Posts: 1084; Member since: Mar 03, 2018
I am not sure this year and if size exceeds 5.8 it's a no from my side. Next year for sure.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 12:32 PM 0
Posts: 1633; Member since: Oct 27, 2011
or people will choose last year's discounted iPhone X ?
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 12:40 PM 0
Posts: 113; Member since: Dec 26, 2011
I won't be upgrading but I will be moving to an iPhone from a Pixel. As much as I love Android and Pixel there are a few items with it that have finally pushed me to the other side.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 12:55 PM 1
Posts: 56; Member since: Jan 09, 2015
I like my iPhone SE i wish they would push another tiny phone 5 inch or smaller, i can do just as much with a compact phone as is possible on a larger phone without hindering my real life activities such as running or other physical activities that worry me far less with a more solid compact phone.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 1:15 PM 0
Posts: 2697; Member since: Nov 09, 2015
While iPhones certainly are expensive when compared to Androids; things start to look a tad bit better in favor of Apple when you consider their ridiculously long OS upgrade cycle. The iPhone 5s, for instance, was launched back in 2013 and its set to receive the latest iOS 12! Meanwhile; my S6 launched in 2015 and bought in late 2016 will never receive Oreo; let alone Pie! Oh well, G'Day!
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 1:20 PM 1
The only reason 5s is getting an update is because iOS 11 was so bad and buggy.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 4:54 PM 0
Posts: 1627; Member since: Jul 17, 2018
This is just stupid for so many reasons. First off, this isn't even a prediction. It is expected. It is expected that Apple over the next 24 months, will sell roughly 400M+ devices running iOS. Lets say sales stay equal to last year and they sell 220M+ phones in a year. So that means if you add 6 months or 1/2 as many you get 340M sells. so saying 350M is within the parameters of expected sales amount. Just like I can say, as long as Samsung stays on its 75M-80M sells per quarter pace, that in 18 months, Samsung will selling 450M-500M devices. How is this news? These are just obvious projections that require common sense to come up with.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 2:12 PM 1
Posts: 1214; Member since: Nov 10, 2014
Been on IOS 12 for a while now so no I won’t be upgrading my iPhone X and my SE will always be my baby lol iphones are awesome but upgrading every year isn’t a must. Really trying to go on a 2 year upgrade cycle
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 5:21 PM 0
Posts: 20; Member since: Apr 22, 2014
I'll upgrade my 6S Plus when Apple decides to launch an OLED iPhone with a below 800$ price...
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 5:36 PM 0
Posts: 646; Member since: Aug 11, 2017
X plus, apple watch series 4 and ipad pro for me. My wallet is ready.
posted on Aug 23, 2018, 6:37 PM 1
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