Is Windows Phone 7 too little too late?

A financial analyst at The Motley Fool concluded that Microsoft's upcoming Windows Phone 7 will be too little too late. They point out that while smartphone market penetration is at 30%, this doesn't mean there is another 70% of the market waiting to be convinced. Instead, much of that remaining population is made up of people unlikely to subscribe to cell service in the first place.
Another strong point is made by looking at the loyalty statistics of current smartphone users. They note that 89% of iPhone users and 71% of Android users intend to maintain their current operating system on their next phone purchase. One possible explanation for this loyalty is the expensive volume of apps that consumers accumulate, which they would have to replace if they switched to another OS.

While the article doesn't give much hope for Windows Phone 7 in terms of market penetration, we shouldn't take this to mean it won't be a great OS. Windows Phone 7 might well carve out its own corner of the mobile market from its competitors.

source: The Motley Fool via MS Mobiles