Analyst sees no supercycle for Apple, but predicts strong iPhone X sales

Analyst sees no supercycle for Apple, but predicts strong iPhone X sales
Raymond James' Apple analyst Tavis McCourt wrote a note to clients today. In his message, McCourt stated that the big supercycle that was supposed to pump up Apple's revenue and profits thanks to the new innovative 2017 iPhone models, might not take place. But thanks to what he sees as strong Apple iPhone X demand, the analyst expects Apple to report higher earnings next year as the average selling price of the iPhone rises as much as 10% in 2018.

McCourt's note includes some data not favorable to Apple. He says that 37% of iPhone owners plan to upgrade to a 2017 iPhone over the next 12 months. Over the previous three years, that figure has averaged 44%. This tells the analyst that there will be no supercycle. McCourt wrote, "The data suggests that this year's refresh may not drive the proverbial 'supercycle' that many have predicted." In addition, he predicts that 14% of iPhone owners plan to update over the next three months. That compares with 15% who updated over the first 3 months last year, and 17% the year before that. However, with 46% of those upgrading turning to the more expensive iPhone X, Apple's gross profit margin will rise 2 percentage points next year.


The analyst says that the heavier demand he finds for the iPhone X over the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus is surprising considering the more expensive price for the tenth anniversary model, and "the lack of a killer app" for the phone. Overall, McCourt lowered his forecast of iPhone sales for 2018 to 240 million from 260 million. But with the iPhone X selling like hotcakes, he raised his earnings per share forecast for Apple's 2018 fiscal year from $10.50 to $10.85. He also raised his target for Apple's shares to $180 from $170. The stock is currently trading near $154. Since the September 12th event that introduced the new iPhone models including the iPhone X, Apple has lost $50 million in market capitalization.

source: CNBC

FEATURED VIDEO

25 Comments

1. Martineverest

Posts: 521; Member since: Oct 27, 2015

dooms day ahead

2. amasog

Posts: 552; Member since: Aug 22, 2013

Ahaha! Typical iHater. Just saying.

3. trojan_horse

Posts: 5868; Member since: May 06, 2016

By that logic, those saying "gloom days ahead " are Apple worshippers? Because that is exactly what you're implying here... Just saying.

6. trojan_horse

Posts: 5868; Member since: May 06, 2016

I meant to say "bloom", not "gloom... Damm autocorrect.

25. seret6

Posts: 279; Member since: Aug 14, 2013

Phonearena says apple lost just 50 million , where as financial websites say it lost 50 billion Is phonearena on apple's payroll

7. amasog

Posts: 552; Member since: Aug 22, 2013

Say whatever you want. It's not my problem. Haha!

9. trojan_horse

Posts: 5868; Member since: May 06, 2016

Just like your reply in post #2 is not Martineverest' problem. Haha!

4. hado86

Posts: 177; Member since: Oct 15, 2014

Apple is still working on the imbedded Touch ID so for me it makes more sense to either keep my 7 plus or upgrade to the 8 plus.

5. fyah_king unregistered

Why would you upgrade to the same phone with minor upgrades? They said the speakers are suppose to be 25% louder but it's the same.lol

8. amasog

Posts: 552; Member since: Aug 22, 2013

He wants to upgrade because he wants. Haha! Why are you affected much? Hihihi

20. fyah_king unregistered

Not affected at all. I would never upgrade to the same identical phone with minor upgrades. I like new designs for my phone and some power. That's why I buy 8-9 phones per year.:) I digress!!!

11. darkkjedii

Posts: 31083; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Never question why someone wants to do something with their own money bro...Remember as an android user, you should embrace choice.

19. hado86

Posts: 177; Member since: Oct 15, 2014

And as an iPhone user, wireless charging is a big reason to upgrade and thanks.

21. Leo_MC

Posts: 7432; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

Because it's not the same phone and he maybe thinks upgrades are worth it.

10. darkkjedii

Posts: 31083; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

It’s the iPhone X for crying out loud! Stevie Wonder, Ray Charles, and Helen Keller could see strong sales for it.

12. sissy246

Posts: 7120; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

Agree Dark I may not be a Apple fan but, I also know Apple will never be doomed. I wouldn't want Apple to be doomed or any others. The more one tires to out do the other the better for us as the buyers.

24. darkkjedii

Posts: 31083; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Right on sissy, that keeps the advancements coming for us.

13. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2213; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

No other "SINGLE" Android manufacturer has a chance against Apple besides Samsung. Even Samsung can't sell many S and Notes. They rely heavily on their inexpensive phones within their line up to make up their sales numbers. Those don't generate much profit for Samsung. Samsung will only sell less than 35-40 million for their entire S and Note lineup for the entire year. I believe Apple will sell roughly 120-130 million iPhones 8/8 Plus/X's from now to the end of January. That's a pretty sick number for less than 4 months. That doesn't include 6S or 7 numbers.

17. razmahtaz001

Posts: 501; Member since: May 11, 2013

its not that samsung relies on their cheaper models...its more to do with choices that the consumers have...look at apple, only two iphones a year...all other android oems have a dozen models, which equates to over 100 android smartphones to choose from every year...and apple? only two models to choose from...iphonies have no choice but to buy either phone a or phone b every year, which equates to higher number of phones sold for one of only two models LOL i would love to see apple put out a dozen of iphones a year, and see dozens of other ios smartphone vendors...im not so sure if apples overall sales would increase, and no single iphone will sell as good as it does today with only two iphones to choose from LOL

22. Leo_MC

Posts: 7432; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

It's not like current Apple users can't choose one of those hundreds Android phones... Some people are choosing Apple because they want am Apple device.

14. EC112987

Posts: 1215; Member since: Nov 10, 2014

My opinion isn't much but being my wife plans on getting it, I hope the X lives up to the hype. My S8 is still running strong though. I'm about to get an SE.

18. razmahtaz001

Posts: 501; Member since: May 11, 2013

according to youtube videos, alot of these ifan youtubers dont really care too much for the X due to its ugly and annoying notch LOL

16. HillaryClinton2020

Posts: 191; Member since: Feb 08, 2017

iPhone X will shake the earth indeed , a climate change disaster for android fanboy

23. JoshuaDK1984

Posts: 24; Member since: Apr 01, 2017

Are these US numbers or global numbers?

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

Latest Stories

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. You can order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers at https://www.parsintl.com/phonearena or use the Reprints & Permissions tool that appears at the bottom of each web page. Visit https://www.parsintl.com/ for samples and additional information.