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Report says to expect Android to top the iOS installed base by next year

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Report says to expect Android to top the iOS installed base by next year
Analyst Horace Dediu of asymco has come to the conclusion that by some time in 2012, Android users will overtake the installed base of iOS users. Graphing the number of activations each quarter, the analyst says that currently Apple has 191 million users after 48 months. In 31 months, Android totals 83 million users. Deidu deduces that the latter will overcome the former by sometime in 2012 based on current rates of momentum and growth.

Of course, momentum is not a static number. Things change, new features get offered, and the analysis done by Dediu assumes that everything stays the same.  The analyst adds, "One should be careful about drawing conclusions that this implies effective competition. Both platforms are growing very quickly. iOS is growing at at least 100%/yr and Android’s second year was 65x bigger than its first. iOS growth is limited by the ramp rates of a limited portfolio of products. Android growth is limited by how quickly vendors can bring out products. Neither platform is demand constrained and hence they are competing for share of growth not for share of a fixed pie."

He also says that "extrapolation is a dangerous game." For example, had he done this comparison even just a week prior to the launch of the original Motorola DROID, the results would have looked quite different.

source: asymco via AndroidGuys

According to analyst Horace Dediu of asymco, by next year Android users could number the number of iOS users

According to analyst Horace Dediu of asymco, by next year Android users could number the number of iOS users


11 Comments
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posted on 19 Apr 2011, 17:52

1. the dude (unregistered)


so wait even though android is ranked ahead of apple in terms of os (# of users) apple is still ahead .....something here smells a little fishy

posted on 19 Apr 2011, 18:24 1

2. Kjayhawk (Posts: 287; Member since: 07 Oct 2010)


No iOS is number one including iphone, ipod and ipads. Android is the number one smart phone OS.

posted on 19 Apr 2011, 23:14 2

7. google lover (unregistered)


android is the best one because of google is everything.....

posted on 20 Apr 2011, 01:07 1

11. tuminatr (Posts: 682; Member since: 23 Feb 2009)


although I own a droid comments like this are like this are kin to Vanilla is the best flavor. there is no best device. I will say android has more features than Ios

posted on 20 Apr 2011, 02:21 1

12. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)


Based on growth percentage, YES.

Example:
Android in 2010 = 5000 phones
In 2011 = 7500
that's 50% growth

Apple in 2010 = 1000
in 2011 = 2000
that's 100% growth

So based on those numbers, eventhough android has actually more number of phones activated, their growth percentage is slower than Apple. Get it?

posted on 19 Apr 2011, 18:34 1

3. BobbyTaba (Posts: 316; Member since: 11 Aug 2010)


these are bad results or the guy was retarded

posted on 19 Apr 2011, 19:24

4. bossmt_2 (Posts: 434; Member since: 13 Oct 2009)


I wonder if month 7 was the month that the Droid launched on Verizon. Nothing did Google more good in the Android world than Verizon not having the iPhone for as long as it did.

posted on 19 Apr 2011, 23:35

10. Lucas777 (Posts: 2137; Member since: 06 Jan 2011)


well their lineup sucked before. so it was good for vz. cant say their lineup is amazing at the moment though...

posted on 19 Apr 2011, 23:18

8. Eingild (unregistered)


Is this relevant for users around the globe? or just USA?

posted on 20 Apr 2011, 02:29

13. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)


This analysis is pretty accurate and actually predictable. With the number of phonemakers adopting android, it will definitely overtake iOS in no time. But it does not mean that iOS won't be the biggest winner in terms of profit. Always remember, Apple is the SOLE owner of iOS, android is free.

posted on 20 Apr 2011, 06:28

14. IOS5 (unregistered)


I think the reason that 50% of saymbian user going to shift to Android cus saymbian it's going to finish not exactly finish cus nokia shifting to wm7.

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