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Nokia confirms 330k Lumia sales in the US, vindicates comScore and Nielsen numbers

Posted: , by Scott H.

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Nokia confirms 330k Lumia sales in the US, vindicates comScore and Nielsen numbers
Over the years a reoccurring topic is the overall market share of various mobile platforms. While consumers should always pick the phone that best suits them rather than one that is “popular”, at the same time there’s no better way to analyze macro trends in the mobile space than to watch how market share expands and contracts for different companies and operating systems. In particular the smartphone race has become very platform dependent, as developers (and therefore app stores) tend to gravitate to the ecosystem where they can make the most money.

Numbers supplied by Nokia during their earnings call show that they shipped 600,000 phones in the US last quarter, of which only 330,000 were Lumia phones (the rest presumably being Symbian devices). This meshes up almost exactly with the estimate of sales that was derived from comScore and Nielsen numbers a week ago – note that only the Lumia 710 was even available prior to Q2, so the 330,000 Lumias moved last quarter are probably very close to the overall number sold so far in the US.

Why is this important? Aside from reinforcing the challenge that Nokia faces in the US market (and by the way, Nokia’s year over year sales in the US are actually up, so it’s not all bad news), people that feel a vested interest in the mobile platform they choose frequently attack the estimates provided by comScore and Nielsen as unreliable. And of course those numbers are indeed estimates, rather than being derived from POS data or internal OEM numbers. But they have consistently come up with results that are within a small margin of error from one another despite using somewhat different methods to derive their estimates.

And now Nokia has provided hard evidence that those numbers are in fact quite good – some people were understandably skeptical that Lumia sales could be so low in the US, and much of that derived from the early “things are going really well, we swear!” cheerleading PR boilerplate that Microsoft, Nokia, and AT&T through our way after the launch.

The reality is that our industry market share trackers are pretty good at what they do, while the companies with the most at stake in a product launch will always spin it the best they can. So while comScore or Nielsen may not be reporting what you want to hear (and every platform has had releases like that at some point) it’s better to simply swallow the unpleasant numbers and try to understand them.

source: Nokia via TechCrunch

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posted on 19 Jul 2012, 09:39 7

1. raunak (Posts: 498; Member since: 12 Oct 2011)


expected atleast 1 million sales...wp8 with pureview might just be their last chance......unless they use android which they wont until elop is fired.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 14:16 2

20. haseebzahid (Posts: 1808; Member since: 22 Feb 2012)


elop did good job shifting nokia because it was the previous managments that screwed nokia for profit last ones never bothered to indroduce the new things that were in R&D of NOKIA they were only going for shares they had in market Elop actully is letting the innovations run in

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 09:41 7

2. ajac09 (Posts: 1346; Member since: 30 Sep 2009)


love to see Nokia go under arrogant assholes

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:57 2

14. Penny (Posts: 1109; Member since: 04 Feb 2011)


Pot. Kettle. Black.

...and all that good stuff.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 14:47 2

21. jackhammeR (Posts: 1548; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)


stupid hater

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 09:44 12

3. cornerofthemoon (Posts: 505; Member since: 20 Apr 2010)


I still love my Lumia. Keep hope alive.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 09:44 6

4. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5539; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)


Further proof that Android and iOS are sucking all of the oxygen out of the room. Only problem for Nokia is they bet the farm on WP.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:25 2

11. lubba (Posts: 1310; Member since: 17 Jan 2011)


Takes time for crops to grow. You have to feed it.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:55 2

13. Penny (Posts: 1109; Member since: 04 Feb 2011)


That is true -- betting the farm on one strategy is generally a very bad risk to take.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 20:22 1

26. aoikemono27 (Posts: 177; Member since: 27 Feb 2012)


Haha reminds me of how corn farmers in the midwest planted an unprecedented amount of corn this year, yet 90% of the crop is in danger and the yields are expected to only be 30% of last year's. They sure weren't planting more while expecting lower yields. How red will red states get before the party of the red elephant finally acknowledges global warming? I'm sure in their heads its still global cooling...

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 10:31 5

5. Veigald (Posts: 226; Member since: 13 Jan 2012)


WP has a good future ahead, no doubt about that. With the convergence on a shared platform, it will gain market share very quickly, imo. Mostly on the expense of Blackberry and Android, as iOS has such a strong following anyway.

Thank God Nokia didn't go the Android way, there are enough laggy, overpowered (yet underpowered) cheap plastic phones out there that solid Nokia-built phones with good hardware and WP8 will outshine. In a few years, Android will be an afterthought, something that caught marketshare because it was free, but that didn't provide any added value beyond some apps and games. You cannot create content on Android devices, but you can on iOS and WP, and that will be the differentiator, imo.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 10:46 4

6. sprockkets (Posts: 1089; Member since: 16 Jan 2012)


"Android will be an afterthought, something that caught marketshare because it was free, but that didn't provide any added value beyond some apps and games."

Strange, some person on the internet said that in 2010...you work for roughlydrafted.com?

" You cannot create content on Android devices, but you can on iOS and WP, and that will be the differentiator, imo."

Like music which should be made properly on a REAL computer?

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:02 6

8. Veigald (Posts: 226; Member since: 13 Jan 2012)


You completely nailed the point. Content like music should be made on a REAL computer, and Android will not power computers. However, when you have bought into one platform for making content and can seamlessly use the same platform for consuming content, well, then you have a strong value proposition. And that's what Windows/WP8 has working strongly for it. Apple also, to a bit lesser extent.

Android will definitely continue to be the biggest phone OS for some years still, but unless it starts offering more than just running smartphones, my opinion is that convergence from Microsoft and Apple will get the best of it.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:19 1

10. sprockkets (Posts: 1089; Member since: 16 Jan 2012)


Well so far most people seem to hate metro on a full size desktop and will resort to the traditional one. I mean, Office on the "desktop" is not going to be anywhere near the same on WinRT. Or maybe it will, or maybe it won't matter.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 20:31

27. aoikemono27 (Posts: 177; Member since: 27 Feb 2012)


Yeah I don't see how this is some "unified" platform and all. I sure didn't see any special connectivity between WP8 and windows 8 that Android or any other phone platform didn't already have. The difference between a phone/tablet and a computer is the size of the workable area and the keyboard/mouse. That can't be bridged by any fancy unified interface, because you'll just end up dumbing it down like the metro UI for WIndows 8, which no one will use on a computer with a mouse/keyboard. Access to files and editing is already available thanks to the cloud. No need to be tied down to a platform, unless there's no app for your platform of course. Android isn't going anywhere.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 20:37

29. aoikemono27 (Posts: 177; Member since: 27 Feb 2012)


Haha. Have you ever owned a Symbian phone? Sure is a laggy dated OS. And cheap plastic phones? That's like most of Nokia's product line.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 10:51 3

7. lubba (Posts: 1310; Member since: 17 Jan 2011)


Yep, that's probably the best Nokia's gonna get for being exclusive to ATT with the Lumia L900. Keep that exclusive game up and they'll be going nowhere fast. Oh well, still have my HTC radar and love my hd7 and looking forward to HTC's wp8 devices.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 12:15

16. DFranch (Posts: 136; Member since: 20 Apr 2012)


I don't think it was because they wanted to be exclusive with ATT. Verizon & Sprint have little interest in WP7, T-Mobile only seems to be interested in lower end devices. I think they're lucky ATT put the backing behind the Lumia 900 that they did. Hopefully WP8 will turn the corner, because I do think Windows phone is a great OS that does not get the attention it deserves.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 15:39 1

24. bluechrism (Posts: 99; Member since: 09 Sep 2011)


T-Mobile would love to get higher end devices but AT&T is insisting on exclusives and so, you have to choose to give it to the largest market in the US, or a smaller one.
(This is the impression i got from talking to people from Nokia and t-Mobile at CES 2012)

As A T-mobile user it bugs me to no end, but both carriers clearly like the platform and hopefully T-Mobiles handling of it so far (and the way they keep touting the Lumia 710) can help them get some more high profile WP7 devices this fall.

Any one carrier hogging the high end is bad, and if it happens again, it won't just be bad for Nokia/manufatcurers, but bad for the whole ecosystem*.

*statement applies to US market only.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 20:33 1

28. aoikemono27 (Posts: 177; Member since: 27 Feb 2012)


It was the only way to get the $99 pricepoint.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:12

9. Stoli89 (Posts: 333; Member since: 28 Jun 2010)


Where did you get the figure that Lumia sales were only half of all US sales? Most analysts seem to concur that of the 4 Mio Lumia sold last quarter, 600K were sold in the USA. Symbian sales in the US are practically ZERO. It's not part of the sales strategy at Nokia to sell Symbian in the USA. The only Symbian sales are off contract via Amazon, etc....and these numbers are not nearly as large as those of the Lumia 900 and 710. You bascially posted a crappy estimate and now are trying to justify it against a Q2 earnings report.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:32 5

12. Scott_H (Posts: 167; Member since: 28 Oct 2011)


Nokia broke down the numbers in their earnings call. TechCrunch also reported it.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 13:43 1

18. Mobira (Posts: 4; Member since: 19 Jul 2012)


Elop was asked how was the 600k split between Lumia and others. He did not answer the question.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 15:06 1

23. Mobira (Posts: 4; Member since: 19 Jul 2012)


http://seekingalpha.com/article/732691-nokia-management-discusses-q2-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Check the question from Francois Meunier - Morgan Stanley

posted on 22 Jul 2012, 15:33

30. Whodaboss (Posts: 176; Member since: 18 Nov 2011)


@Stoli89. You're correct! His first report stated:

"It’s not clear exactly how low Nokia’s expectations were, but a close analysis of the latest Nielsen and comScore numbers shows that Nokia has sold well below half a million Windows phone devices in the U.S. – they number crunchers at Aymco peg the number at a mere 330,000. And those numbers aren’t just Lumia 900 sales, they are the total sales of all Nokia Windows Phone devices, including the value priced Lumia 710 on T-Mobile (which has been selling for "free" on contract for months) and launched back in January."

Pay particular attention to "...And those numbers aren’t just Lumia 900 sales, they are the total sales of all Nokia Windows...".

There were 600K Lumia's sold not 330K according to reports I've read. But this misrepresentation of an article is titled "Nokia confirms 330k Lumia sales in the US, vindicates comScore and Nielsen numbers".

Get real, there's no vindication. Just partial information being passed on as real numbers.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 11:58

15. snowgator (Posts: 3188; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)


Sigh.....

Okay, fine. Not as bad as it could have been, not a flop, but certainly not a success. Next quarter will be worse with no new Nokia's until WP 8. Microsoft can absorb losses until WP is profitable, Samsung and HTC can break even and be excited about what Windows Tablets can offer, and life goes on. But Nokia needs this, and I hope it works. Mobile is better off with an imaginative company like Nokia, and is also better with a strong third OS to push the envelope.

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 12:50 2

17. Tsepz_GP (Posts: 779; Member since: 12 Apr 2012)


LMFAO! Cant create content on Android, some hilarious garbage im reading here :)
iOS and WP can barely consume with all their limitations, it seems someone hasnt heard of the Ubuntu for Android project, nor Chrome OS eventually being one with Android, Android at this point probably has the brightest and most exciting future at this point, but it will be fun watching WP/Nokia fans and Android haters lie to themselves only to backtrack later, i became used to that when i told them Android would topple Symbian before 2012 back in early 2010, many of them have gone quiet, lol. :)

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 13:45 1

19. eman99 (Posts: 210; Member since: 03 Aug 2010)


I bet they added all the phones they gave away for free that should be around half that number

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 14:52

22. jcpwn2004 (Posts: 314; Member since: 18 Jan 2012)


How could they only sell 300,000 in the us? Wasn't it 2nd behind the iphone on at&t? Are android sales that bad on at&t?

posted on 19 Jul 2012, 15:51 1

25. bluechrism (Posts: 99; Member since: 09 Sep 2011)


OK, some made up numbers to follow.

AT&T has about 100m customers.
Lets say 75% are on 2 year contracts
of those 75, another 10 have been on contract > 2 years and don't bother to renew. so 65m
there are 24 months in 2 years so 2.7m contracts renewed/month
50% of renewals are for iphones
1.3m left
if 20% of the rest buy Lumia (and 80 buy other devices)
260,000 Lumia 900's sold by AT&T. ONly problem is that this is per quarter, not per month.
780000 devices.

ok, so i had a go, and still came out with a number way higher than 330,000, and we have to assume that a significant %age of those are Lumia 710s.

Obviously, my numbers are made up, but I think 3 things have to be true:
1. Yes, Android and eveything else are way behind iphone on AT&T
2. Being second probably means you have something less than 20% of phone sales, maybe 10%, but given the number of devices carried by AT&T, that's not bad at all.
3. Even then, if the number of 710's sold on T-Mobile is something both companies are happy with, the number of devices sold on AT&T is less than expected.

And a 4th. I forgot to assign a % to people who don't get a smart phone.

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