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Nokia sold over 2 million Lumias in Q1, lowers outlook as margins evaporate

0. phoneArena posted on 11 Apr 2012, 07:41

The first Nokia Windows Phone sales numbers are in: Nokia sold 2 million units of its newly launched Lumia series…

This is a discussion for a news. To read the whole news, click here

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:05 3

28. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

oooh.. the education VS experience argument. Which is better... books, or years of hands on? The eternal argument.

I've taken more than my fair share of social science courses. Not a PHD's worth, but definitely more than most.

Dude, if your writing a book on apple with the kind of statements you are making, im worried for you. Throw me a passage of this book. Give me an example.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:22 4

32. AppleConspiracy (Posts: 637; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

As I am from Europe and non-english speaking country, I can't provide you with material. Besides, you can read the essentials in my comments now and then. As I have worked on my thesis about technological paradigms and their substitute for reality, and of course I am deeply connected with Apple evolution for the last 15 years and IT segment in general, I have developed very interesting theories about this issues, and at least for now - I was mostly right. I predicted the rise of Apple as the most valuable company in the history (although it still isn't), the fall of RIM and now I'm predicting the fall of Nokia. For Micorosft, I'm not yet sure, becuse they are still deeply integrated in society, so deep that even Apple's post-PC-era project can't destroy it. At least not yet. The only thing I did't predict was the survival and rise of Samsung.

Anyway, the society operates non-freely. They will adapt to transcedental values, to signs that constitute paradigms. It's the level on which Steve Jobs was functioning. Other CEOs and manufacturers don't get that, because they think everything can be reduced to logistics, statistical (quantitative, not qualitative) measurments of markets, good industrial design, economic strategies and so on. Only Apple was functioning on whole new level, on a level of symbolic order, which has produced Lacanian dimension of desires and religious temptations, in fact the only true religion of the world. Of course, the point of my Apple Conspiracy project is that everything can be explained by all this other means and practice would not conflict with it, however it would't create enough knowledge to predict something, so it look more like a conspiracy (where everyone except Apple seems to be incapable of anything despite having briliant minds in every department). Of course, the answer is in philosophical, historical and psychological dimension of social research, and thi research must be conducted qualitatively, of which the "Industry" knows nothing about.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:29 2

36. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

So wait.. your speaking perfect english on the site, but you cant provide a snippet of your book because you live in a non-english country?

You do know that even if somehow that paradox were true, that google translate would fix that immediately... right?

Other than some smoke that your blowing, I've also predicted the huge rise of apple (and its eventual fall back into a small dedicated market share), the fall of WP6, blackberry, symbian (nokia) and the future mega dominance of android and Samsung becoming an ultimate power in the mobile world on the back of their ground breaking tech advances. WP7 will also rise and i think it has a very strong chance of taking the 2nd place spot above iOS and below android for the long term. In fact, ive predicted all that on this very site over the past few years, so feel free to look it up.

It doesnt take a PHD to predict that, it takes someone with their ear to the ground, knowledge of the past, and an eye for the future. Thats why there is the running nostra-remix jokes for when my predictions come true.. which they do more often than not

Basically, I just called out all of your BS.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:51 3

41. snowgator (Posts: 3604; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)

I also believe that as long as Google continues to put the kind of money into Android as they have up to now, WP will never overtake it for #1. Metro is basically a "love it or hate it" UI, and skins on Android make it way more appealing to the mass consumer. Besides, it has so much market saturation right now, it's lead is awe inspiring.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:58 1

44. hepresearch (unregistered)

Yes, and market saturation for smartphones means "no new feature phone converts left to be had"... we are getting close to the point where I fear Android may take a bit of a slide, that point where new activations will start to be less influenced by first-time smart device buyers, and more by brand loyalty (where Apple ultimately leads at the moment... I hope Google and MS and others can do something to compete better in that metric).

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:54 2

43. hepresearch (unregistered)

Please remix... not everybody can just drop their material into Google Translate and throw it up all over here... and there are things called copyright laws that may prohibit a writer from privately reposting material that is under contract to a specific publisher... furthermore, please also see comment #42 below...

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:51 1

42. hepresearch (unregistered)

remix... I know you think that Apple Conspiracy is just trying to blow smoke up everybody's shorts, and you have said the same thing about me in the past as well when it came to my own market analysis that also put iOS on top between 2015 and 2018... however, as someone who has been in the educational field long enough to know, I can tell you that Apple Conspiracy strikes me as one who is using the terminology commonly associated with his stated field. It is very rare for a pretender to properly use field-specific lingo in context, and so his use of certain phrases lends credence to the possibility that, in fact, he actually IS who he says he is.

Now, it may be true that experience gives a person a very good outlook on general movements within systems... however, I would argue that it is education, rather than experience, that gives a person a very good outlook on high-precision minute fluctuations within systems. I know you will say that the "bigger picture" approach of experience is far far more important than anything an education can give you, but those who know anything about non-linearity in quantitative analysis can tell you that it is the small movements that, although just an insignificant subset of a larger system motion, will tell you what is really about to happen next. There comes a point in time when the conventional wisdom of experience cannot account for future behavior in a system beyond a certain point.

Now, I must say that I disagree with Apple Conspiracy on one point... I think his overall analysis is fairly good, and no one ever, EVER, gets it exactly right... but I am a believer that qualitative information can also be converted into quantitative information, and thus quantitatively analyzed. Qualitative analysis is largely dominated by the experience end of things... quantitative analysis is, in my opinion, a more direct method, and can actually account for greater precision and additional variable contributions over time. Granted, quantitative analysis is informed by, and limited by, one's qualitative understanding because you do not know what additional variables may enter the equation until a new behavior starts to diverge from what is already there... but, I believe that everything can be converted into quantity at some level and at some point.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 10:18 1

50. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

i was waiting for you to jump in.

the best knowledge is a mix of experience and education so you know what your experiencing. education does not trumph experience. a book cant tell you how everything is going to fall into place because nothing is that static. but without education you wont be able to navigate your real world experience well enough.
I have both.

we are at 50% smart phone market saturation. I think we will see 80%+ within the next few years. Walk into your local phone store and see how FEW non smartphones there are. Data is always getting cheaper and people are getting more connected.

That alone disproves your saturation theory. Within 10 years regular calling phones will be a blip of history as price points continue to drop and technology gets faster and cheaper. Moore's law in action.
Add the booming younger population and the fact that the older population is finally starting to embrace technology en masse, and you will realize that smartphone adoption is still on the early side of the bell curve. With that in mind, both of you couldnt be more wrong if you tried.
Android will continue to dominate market share because it is open and prolific. Apple will continue to make bank but will see a consistent drop in market share. MS will pick up where WP6 and Blackberry left off in the business segment and will see great to explosive growth in mobile after the roll out of WP8 PC, Xbox and mobile. Cohesive branding on the worlds #1 PC OS, #1 gaming OS (wii doesnt count, sorry..lol), and a stable and useful business/pleasure mobile OS means big sales. Nearly everyone will be used to WP8 if they have a phone or not. That means a lot of likely adoptions to the phone OS.
If Google pushes Moto, you will see the dark horse, BADA, be pushed hard by Samsung to become a viable alternative.. though it will never be more than a novelty OS... but will garner Samsung billions.

I am happy to take side bets and to keep a running tab on all of this with you. I'd bet im 80-90% correct in my assumptions... which come from a nice mix of education + tons of experience + the ability to see 3 moves ahead. BTW, u probably dont want to play chess with me. lol

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 10:44 1

58. hepresearch (unregistered)

Ummm... you must not have understood quite what I meant with "saturation"... I agree entirely with your statement on feature phones... they will be almost utterly GONE in just a couple more years, but that does not disprove anything I have said... in fact, it is a large part of my motivation for saying what I have already said... less people left to convert from a feature phone to a smart phone equals greater share of influence by brand loyalty of existing brands (until someone else comes out with something new and market-shaking... like what Apple did with the iPhone in 2007... someone will do it again, but who?)...

The fact that Apple is making bank means that they have the overwhelming share of power over media coverage, litigation, R&D if need be, and that if they don't come out with the next great market-shattering product then at least they will have the greater say in who eventually does. As sad as this is, it is the money that makes it happen...

WP is set to become a well-entrenched third ecosystem, and I do think they have greater success ahead for them because of their new position and look, however it will be interesting to see if an independent Nokia is in the cards for the longer-term future... they may get eaten up by Microsoft at any moment.

Samsung will only do bada if they are pressed hard enough to stop working on Android, and that seems really unlikely right now... unless Apple wins more litigation against them, and I would rather not see that happen.

I don't bet money, ever (its a religious preference, I guess... haha), but I wouldn't mind comparing predictions and results, and taking notes when I'm wrong, over the longer-term. I have a decent mix of education and experience... I'm slightly better than half-way to a BS in Physics, I am heavy on the statistical analysis and research end of things (education AND experience in both... published as well on a couple occassions), and I have been in the mobile industry since 2006 (Sprint-Nextel B2B dealer, T-Mobile retail sales, in business for myself for two years after all of that, and then an independent consultant in my free time ever since). That may not sound like much, but I make up for it with being smart and witty. Since I started keeping track in 2008, I have hit between 75-95% on accuracy myself, so there is a chance we could be evenly matched. Never been great at chess, but I have some friends who are avid chess players, one of whom once beat a master in an unofficial match... and I'm trying to learn more from him... either way, sounds fun.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 10:28 5

55. AppleConspiracy (Posts: 637; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

Thank you for your support hepresearch. It was never my intention to bring my education in front of discussion simply because it isn't suitable for this medium, however remixfa mentioned it first and used it as an argument that can't be defeated from te discussion arguments alone. I'm not from English-speaking country so I know only one aspect of English that uses research terminology, so I can't compete with modern phrases in casual talk. I'm not against anyone, this site is interesting for my research becuse it shows the state of conciousness by putting the emphasis on trends, polls and comments, intentionally supporting controversies and delicate subjects.

remixfa, I don't have prepared materials on English language and Google translate is very bad in translating from my language - it simply makes no sense. If I ever publish my book in English, I will let you know.
The book itself is not here to be purely scientific and empirical, it's more philosophical and psychoanalytical. A lot of research is being made in purely scientific field, so I thought it would be nice to give alternative view on this issue - it seems nobody dealt with this subject in that way. If it is, let me know - I'm still collecting reference data!

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:24 1

34. snowgator (Posts: 3604; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)

Apple Conspiracy: Has anyone ever mentioned the danger of taking oneself too seriously?

I tend to take people at their word, but I could assigned myself tons of neat little letters to my opinion, put myself on a pedestal, and roll myself in dough and call myself yummy to eat. But, in the end, it is all just my opinion.

MS and Nokia are dedicated to this venture. Both have had success and failures in this field, learning from both. Both have deep enough pockets to make this work. Those are facts. My opinion is it will work. And I have had tons of hours researching forums, blogs, different cell phone shops, and a couple of fortune tellers at a circus I was just at.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 10:04 2

47. hepresearch (unregistered)

Perhaps, but some people have actually taken the time to study methodology on a level that many others do not. This is that education versus experience argument again... some people argue that college education and degrees are worthless compared to experience, and others argue that a college education is necessary for most people to have a decent chance at succeeding in a long-term career.

Think of it this way... who would you trust more to write you a traffic ticket? The police man who chased you down while you were going 50 in the 45 zone, or the local ice-cream truck driver who knew, from his experienced judgment, you were speeding, and pulled you over for the exact same reason?

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 10:21 1

52. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

that argument makes no sense. your comparing apples and oranges.

a better argument would have been

"the policeman who has been on the force 20 years and is telling you whats' what"

"or the rookie policeman who has a masters in.."policing", telling you whats what".

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 11:06 1

59. hepresearch (unregistered)

Not so. It is still applicable, and here is why...

Educational degrees are a symbol of academic authority dispensed by the collegiate establishment. We do not like to think of it this way, as this thought is often an unpleasant one, but it is ultimately the truth of the situation. So, in other words, the "policeman" is an authority, as is the Ph.D. recipient... just in different role contexts. Likewise, the "ice-cream truck driver" is one who may have plenty of experience with judging driving behavior, and may have a CDL to enforce that recognition, but he is not an "authority" on the enforcement of law, and is not authorized to professionally do what the "policeman" does. The "policeman" has a lot of book learning, just as the Ph.D. does, and may have some experience depending on how long he has been with the force (and that gets a little bit into your further argument). The ice-cream truck driver has had 20 years or more experience judging the speed of vehicles by sight, and knows the local speed limits like the back of his hand. The educated Ph.D. or "policeman" is likely to have knowledge tools, or a "radar gun", for judging things, while the experienced ice-cream truck driver has much more experience with judging speed fairly well without the use of any measuring tool. Between the education of the one, and the experience of the other, they could probably make the same immediate call; however, the "policeman" will know more about the law through his authorization by the lcoal constabulary (education), and HAS AUTHORITY (degree status) which gives him a greater acknowledgement in a court of law... good luck getting the ice-cream truck driver's ticket to stick in a court of law... they may both be right, and have called the same behavior, but the educated tend to be recognized by the establishment, while the experienced, although they may be right, are not often recognized.

This is the true situation. Now, the debate really boils down to trust in the collegiate establishment. The real question is, "do you trust the establishment to deal out authoritative recognition?" If the answer is yes, then this discussion is over. If the answer is no, then there is an issue of trust... and it is up to the world majority to figure out if they still believe in the old system any more.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 12:16 1

70. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

its still not the same. you are comparing 2 different fields and asking why i should pick one or the other. they need to be 2 examples from the same field. That would be like asking why people generally believe my arguments over taco's. I come from knowledge and experience, and he comes from.. well.. his parent's basement.

Education is meaningless without experience, and experience cant be fully understood without education. If you dont have BOTH, then your in a losing position.
I have enough experience to bolster my education in the subject, which not only comes from things like statistics and social sciences, but from historical trends, constant reading in the subject matter, an evolving knowledge of the tech involved, talking to others in the know, ect.

But again, I would be happy to place a side bet and revisit this every so often to see who is trending in the right direction.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 12:38 2

76. hepresearch (unregistered)

But the same dynamic applies in both fields...I am not comparing apples vs. oranges, it is more like I am comparing the seasonal difference between their growth patterns on a common scale of annual temperature/humidity/sunlight over time. The scales of measuring each are not incompatible.

I agree with you that there is a point where education is meaningless without the experience to back it... but I doubt that Apple Conspiracy has no experience, or loads of bad experience, and nothing but book learning to back his thoughts. Unless some of us are also Ph.D.'s in sociology, who are we to say? Likewise, there is a point where, without further education, one cannot understand their own further experiences in a context beyond their current level of education. Now I would say that there are ways to educate one's self outside of the university setting, but those methods rarely come with as much recognition and "establishment authorization" as a college degree. That is why I am where I am in my own life; however, I must say that when we try too hard to reinforce that we are right, we often lose sight of actually trying to do the right thing. All I am saying is let's be careful about whose credentials we call garbage, and whose we accept without question at face-value.

I am fine with placing side predictions and revisiting them later just to see how it all turns out for each of us... sounds fair to me. I have only one request, though... I don't want to hear about Taco's parents' basement ever again! LOL!

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 12:48 3

77. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

I didnt question his PHD for just any reason. Anyone that has even a associates degree in social sciences knows that things are not black and white. All of his arguments are black and white. They are if/than statements. No room for a middle grey area. Thats why I called him on it. With his arguments there were only 2 pieces on the board and he ignored the rest of the field. He wasnt seeing the forest for the trees. It was all about apple and android and nothing else matters. Thats now how the playing field is. Its not black and white. There are dozens of under currents at work and other estuaries leading into the river delta. The Mississippi is nothing without all the smaller rivers that feed into it.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 13:20 1

83. hepresearch (unregistered)

That depends on what school of thought a person is using to obtain their analysis. In mathematics, there is not a whole lot of variety because everything is extremely analytical, but in fields like sociology and psychology this is not the case... they are quite new to the quantitative arena, and thus their interpretations rely largely on qualitative schools of thought, which are still numerous to this day.

Your argument with both myself and Apple Conspiracy seems to be largely against the black-and-white determinism of our methods. As a statistician, I cannot help it. Apple Conspiracy, although he leaves a lot more room for qualitative theory in the school of thought he is referencing for his analysis, is still apparently too deterministic for your taste. Analysis actually requires some level of determinism. Everything you have shot at me has been to question the determinism of the analysis I use... and although that is not a bad thing, I assure you I am doing the best I can given the amount of time I have given to working on it so far.

In the end, I think we are both right in many ways. I am using the methods which I have, by education and experience, learned to trust, and you are questioning the methods which appear to be way too specific to satisfy a more general outlook from which you have obtained your own conclusion. The most likely result is that, with time, we will both see the errors and the strengths involved on both sides, and eventually meet somewhere in the middle... the question is who was closest to the meeting place from the beginning? That is where it will be fun to see what happens!

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 10:33 1

57. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

actually, i want to ammend what i said. Its not on the front side of a bell curve, we are maybe half way on the uptick of a long hockeystick graph. (think, the bottom tip of the stick is the floor and it quickly curves up then the handle is at like a 10-30 degree incline for long term) Once we reach saturation its going to be a long but steady climb as world populations grow. There will likely never be a pronounced downcurve of note in smartphone saturation and sales without a major market hurting event.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 11:20

60. hepresearch (unregistered)

Total handset population may trend as a hockey stick graph because total population is always increasing over time, but remember that a hockey stick graph is an indication that there is a lack of saturation in some feature yet... a better graph type to use, imo, would be a differential graph where the top is limited to 100%, the bottom at 0%, and OS or OEM marketshare is being measured instead of direct handset population. In this method, the hockey stick behavior will only appear during a strong transition period, and will level off when the linear differential system is more balanced... not only that, but percentages can be shown for each OS, and then subdivided for each OEM or carrier, or both, so that the entire graph is constantly filled to 100% with different color codes for each entry. That is how I have plotted my results.

Saturation would then be evident when the saturating subset category, in this case smart phones in general, takes up close to 100% of the marketshare on the graph. In 2015, I have plotted feature phones to already be below 3% of the total marketshare of phones in the US. In 2018, on my plotted graph, feature phones will be less than 1% of the total US marketshare, and thus, smartphones will have pretty much completely saturated the market by that time, if the predicted behavior holds and is correct over the prediction time frame.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 11:31 2

62. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

I dont think 2018 is realistic for 1%.. but it would be close enough to death, there will never be true saturation. If we ever come out of this stupid recession and get back into a spree period there will be another period of high birthrate, thus the trend will continue.

By 2018, unless there is a major shake up, apple will be 10-15% market share, android will be 50-60% and the bulk of the rest will be WP8/9/10. With the introduction of a true 3rd OS competitor, i dont think any of them will sustain above 60%.. not even android. 10-15% may sound small but apple's motivation has always been profit over market share. They will still be making mad money off of that. Thats also another reason why Im sure your wrong. Apple's motivation has never been market share, and probably never will be. They are one of the most valuable companies in the world while having half of android's market share because they charge so much. Unless there is a major brand crisis like this thing with foxconn blowing up in their face, that is unlikely to change.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 11:57 1

68. hepresearch (unregistered)

Now you are getting into more of the meat of this controversy... things like the Foxconn situation are what I would consider "contributing factors" to brand loyalty. If these kinds of negative expose's could gather into enough of a perfect storm in the minds of more existing Apple costumers, then the brand loyalty metric for Apple's iOS could well decline. Also, Google could continue to change future iterations of stock Android to be more competitive with iOS in key areas, and this could raise the brand loyalty metric for Google's Android. If the two ever met in the middle, and then Android loyalty surpassed iOS loyalty, then the situation I have been describing for the last 6 months would indeed end up being absolutely wrong. At this point, with Apple's monetary prowess capable of leveraging dominant influence over the media, attorney representation, and corporate lobbying wings, I am still, figuratively, "putting my money" on iOS for the long-term.

Until recently, I have had to hand-adjust the metrics for percieved upcoming changes in loyalty based on these kinds of contributing factors and media coverage. I just developed a new method for making some of the more predictable changes to the metrics automated by another 7x7 matrix, but only by covariant-contravariant mixing. I am testing it to see if it works, so the more bizzare stuff that happens in a short amount of time, the better my results should turn out, and I will be able to test this more quickly.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 12:19 1

71. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

Oh, thanks for reminding me. You know what flies in the face of your arguement? An article just yesterday showing people have a much more favorable and loyal view of Google than they do of Apple. Suprising yes, but it definitely bolsters my arguement and blusters yours.


and there is also the part where apple is barely making a foothold in china where android is massively dominating. The only challenge there will come from low to mid end WP7 handsets as they are much more affordable than iOS devices.


those 2 things alone are enough to flip your argument upside down. :)

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 12:48

78. hepresearch (unregistered)

You forget that my initial analysis only applies to US market share, and thus, until such time as I feel capable of accurately modeling more general worldwide behavior, I am not too worried about it.

Secondly, this partcular data on loyalty is, at best, just one more data point to be weighted in with dozens of others I collect on a monthly or-so basis. Yes, it would influence my overall analysis, but it would be the furthest data point I have come across yet from the current running average... however, and this is where the big distinction is... this data point is NOT a pure measure of Android or iOS mobile OS loyalty! It is billed in the article as a general brand loyalty for ALL PRODUCTS of the companies to which the survey applies! Thus, this data, in its current form (unless I can find the source and part-out just the mobile OS contingents) is unusable as a direct matrix entry. Google's customer loyalty from Google Ads customers and Google search-engine users and some other elements are well known to be higher than Android-specific loyalty... and unfortunately this survey poll result includes, and thus averages, all of these sectors; hence there is data included in both Google and Apple categories that ought to be excluded for my purposes.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 13:23 1

84. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

No, i think it fits very well into your research. You are trying to predict what the 2nd half of consumers who dont have a smartphone will do, and thus predict the future of the industry.
Brand loyalty, trust, and favorability to google as a company directly plays into people looking at an iphone and an android phone and going "one is made by apple, which i hear is good, and one is made by google, which i have been using for years and like". That is part of the buying decision now so it definitely will be in the future. When I have to explain smartphone basics to a customer who is unfamiliar, they get glassy eyed when i talk about RIM. They however light up when they hear MS and Google OS on the phones, because they recognize the brands since they have been using them for quite a long time. I dont have an iphone for sale to compare it to, but im sure the effect is similar. iPhone is synonymous with smartphone. Google is synonymous with the internet. When you want a phone to get on the internet, google is a "big" word that pulls you in android direction. Its new and familiar at the same time, which is a big draw.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 13:45

86. hepresearch (unregistered)

Not really... I am trying to isolate factors, not include so many that I will need a supercomputer to run the thing. Brand loyalty metrics I have restricted to "what percent of current owners STAY with their current OS when they pick their next device?" As for newcomers to an OS, which I think is what you are referring to... and is actualy very different from brand loyalty, but rather is a function of brand recognition... this is a lot more complicated. It is so complicated, in fact, that I dare not use anything but overall sales share. So, I get information on how many first-time smart phone buyers are going to iOS or Android or WP or whatever, and those are then divided by the total sales figures to find the percentage of total sales for first time smart-device acquirers. I agree that overall "brand recognition" does play into this, but I at this time I am not prepared to account seperately for this, and so I use direct sales figures to generate these metrics instead. The remaining metrics can be further deduced from surveys of brand loyalty... where brand disloyalty is also measured by the percent of current users who switch to a new OS... and by total sales figures by OS across all device acquirers. This method keeps it simple enough, and allows me to extract decent data while limiting the influence of control variables so that I can test the method for accuracy, and so that I can look for slower-moving variables that may influence the primary metric collection over longer time periods which I can then develop extensions of the current model to deal with as I go along. This is the phase where I am now, and so far, over the last 6 or more months, my initial analysis has been spot on (within 0.3%) to the point where I am fairly convinced that nothing major has cast any new influencial changes to the metrics I initially collected. I do expect, though, to see longer term trends that are capable of changing the metric collection, as I described in an earlier comment on this same news post... trends which may yet occur fast enough to change the game out of Apple's favor; but, I have not seen enough evidence to show that it will happen fast enough to spare Android the big dent that I foresee if things did not change in the brand loyalty data.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 15:30 1

88. remixfa (Posts: 14604; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

if i remember correctly the polls you were using to justify your math were intention polls not hard number polls. how Any people intended to change brands or stay with the same.. as your loyalty. honestly that's not a whole different than using the linked graph as evidence. intention and actual decisions don't always add up.

I use all these polls to help formulate my opinions on what will happen next. for the US and world wide. if your not using all available data you will never have a complete picture.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 17:50

89. hepresearch (unregistered)

If you are trying to predict future activity, then intention polls are your only real tool. These "hard number polls" to which you refer are probably equivalent to taking an exit poll of people who just bought a new device, but in the context I am talking these are fairly useless... remember that the information you gather today should have been predicted months ago in a previous cycle, and so if you use today's immediate results to predict future behavior, then you are already behind the eight-ball.

I use as many sources of intention information as possible to populate the matrix, and the market share vectors are populated by actual CURRENT market share information, because the current market is what I am acting upon with the intention data. Is it perfect? No, but unless you can prove to me that Android users are more into lying than iOS users, or that public opinion is consistently skewed in favor of one particular OS over another without the public actually acting on that opinion (again, this is group-think-lying, which has a tendency to not happen often, and to cancel out any skewing effects in nearly equal and opposite margins), then you really have little need to argue that the intention polls are skewed enough to make a significant difference. In fact, many studies (most of which now influence policy making in the federal government and the intelligence community) have actually confirmed that stated intention and actual decisions DO have a tendency to add up quite reliably... more so, in fact, than the average person would like to believe.

I also use all of these polls as best as I possibly can... the only difficulty is that data is often, like the data in the poll you mentioned, a hodge-podge of both relevant and irrelevant numbers that are in a combined analysis, which in this case is useless to me. I am looking for a SPECIFIC set of data, and the information in the poll you cited CANNOT be used in its raw form in the matrix analysis I perform... it is the wrong type of data.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 09:59 2

45. Glim12808 (Posts: 394; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)

AppleConspiracy, I don't think your MA, Ph.D, the books you've written have helped you at all. You still sound like an iDiot to me. Sorry.

posted on 11 Apr 2012, 11:33 1

64. hepresearch (unregistered)

Actually, I see WP as being able to bill itself as a "smooth" OS... and more like iOS than Android. I do see a middle-ground niche for them... it will be small and cramped, but there will be slow yet steady money there, I think. I have played around with WP enough to know that it is a decent alternative to either of the others, and a rather middle-ground OS in some respects. It is a partial compromise between iOS and Android, but with a UI-differentiating twist.

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