JP Morgan cuts estimate of Q1 Apple iPhone X production by 25%, Q2 production by 44%

Over at securities firm JP Morgan, analyst Narci Chang is taking an axe to his estimate of Apple iPhone X production for the first half of 2018. From January through March (Apple's fiscal second quarter of 2018), Chang now expects Apple to produce 15 million units of the tenth-anniversary model. That is a drop of 5 million handsets from his original prediction. For the second quarter, the analyst lowered his estimate by a whopping 44%...
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68 Comments

14. mudcat626

Posts: 224; Member since: Jul 13, 2016

Lol, the so called analyst trying sooo hard with the X having lackluster sales.......not working! Apple took market share in China, Korea, top in USA. That means Android folks have come over! Now come the copycats, but at least they see the so called “Notch” design is very good for a all screen design. Although they do not have all the sensors, some expand the Notch. It just cracks me up, how quickly companies copy Apple. But, I digress , the reason for the Notch is the FaceID, the only secure facial recognition system out. With the Addition of the X plus with larger screen , pencil support, etc, Apple going to have a big year!!! Samsung is DOOMED.........LOL

40. DRS1977

Posts: 679; Member since: May 27, 2015

Don't worry you triggered angry little man, Samsung will be here with billions of dollars long after you are dead and buried 6-feet underground.

43. DarkStar286

Posts: 229; Member since: Mar 18, 2014

Citation needed on those market share claims, especially seeing as Apple's market share actually dropped in numerous markets in 2017....http://uk.businessinsider.com/apple-ios-market-share-us-europe-japan-2018-1?r=US&IR=T

15. theot14430 unregistered

I just got the 8 plus. The main reason was for the fingerprint sensor.

17. Tipus

Posts: 850; Member since: Sep 30, 2016

How unfortunate... :))))

20. JohnR

Posts: 150; Member since: Sep 08, 2017

No it’s not. He didn’t waste 1k on a stupid phone, and now he can spend his money elsewhere. You’re the unfortunate sheep

26. Tipus

Posts: 850; Member since: Sep 30, 2016

What? :)))

18. Eclectech

Posts: 346; Member since: May 01, 2013

I wouldn't dare buy a cellphone that costs 1000 dollars. There's simply no feature Apple offers on the iPhone X that I just have to spend hundreds of dollars more to get.

21. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

You people are really dumb. Of course they cut production moving towards new products. Everyone does that lol.

41. DRS1977

Posts: 679; Member since: May 27, 2015

Sure, keep believing that lie.

44. AxelFoley unregistered

This article is about JP Morgan cutting their estimate (of the already cut production). Unlike many others, I'm sure some of those dumb people can actually read.

50. Macready

Posts: 1817; Member since: Dec 08, 2014

Or you really comment without reading yourself. There was a cut predicted but the article says that they cut another 44% down from the previous (cut) predictions.

53. tedkord

Posts: 17312; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

This is about production cuts over and above what was initially expected. Yes, it was expected that they'd produce less, just not this much less.

23. L0n3n1nja

Posts: 1550; Member since: Jul 12, 2016

I still haven't seen the iPhone X in person, but I know that doesn't indicate how well it's selling.

28. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2146; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

Returned mine back Nov 2017...Getting the 6.5 once it releases...my only complaint was the size. FaceID works great! I only wish you didn’t have to swipe up every time to unlock from homescreen. I’m hoping they remove that step to unlock. What I find weird is that you can go to banking and credit information without a swipe technique. Just look at the phone and it unlocks your banking and credit cards. Why can’t Apple implement this gesture on the unlock screen.

30. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

The sheep will now claim that JPMorgan are ignorant, anti-Apple and should be ignored. Only the incomplete and non-detailed numbers from Apple should be considered.

31. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Apple's numerical values are legally binding under SEC jurisdiction. Is JP Morgan's "analysis"? Nope. Also of course they cut production after two quarters... their new phone will be arriving shortly. Why the hell would you be producing large quantities of an old product with new ones in store? C'mon people... think.

33. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

You're right of course but that's not the point I was trying to make. Apple's numbers may be legally binding but they're never detailed. We don't know and will probably never know how many of each model of their products they sell. It's called obfuscation. "We sold 150 million iPhone's". Yeah, which ones? Or "our smartwatch had a 40% increase in sales compared to the last quarter". Yeah, if you only sold 100,000 and increased it to 140,000 that's not exactly earth shattering. In many ways their numbers can't be trusted because of a lack of transparency.

46. c.m.s

Posts: 235; Member since: Dec 10, 2017

By looking at revenue from iPhones and by that, ASP, it’s no question about that Apple sold a lot of the X model. Add to that that Tim told investors it was the best selling available model since its release. People saying noone buys it because of this and that forget that this is a much more expensive model compared to previous models and yet it outsell competitors cheaper flagship models by far.

47. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

No one is saying it's not selling well. It's just not selling as well as expected. Either way it still doesn't address the question of how many units have been sold and why Apple continue to hide those figures. "Best selling available model"? Wtf does that tell anyone?

48. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

"Wtf does that tell anyone?" I don't know... maybe that its their best selling available model? How much more info do you need? Why not ask others to provide that same info? Because NONE OF THE OEMs provide as much financial insight as Apple does. And whose expectations aren't being met for that matter?

54. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

Financial insight versus units sold are two different things. You would defend Apple even if they put a touchscreen on a turd.

51. c.m.s

Posts: 235; Member since: Dec 10, 2017

Not selling as well as expected... of who? Apple meet its guidance without any problem so they did not sell less than Apple expected. Will they meet their goal for next quarterly report? Lets wait and see but historically they have been very good at doing that. You are talking about speculations and guesses from analysts. It's not selling as well as _their_ made up numbers. Who cares? They inflate the expectations alot and then lower it later. Its not reality, facts and hard numbers. It's people guessing...

55. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

Have you ever heard the term "results didn't meet analysts expectations" and the effect it can have on a companies stock? Wtf is wrong with you sheep? The whole f***ing stock market is people making calculated guesses!

57. c.m.s

Posts: 235; Member since: Dec 10, 2017

Please keep it civil, you act like a child. We are talking about a phone here... Yes, thats what i'm saying. It's all about guesses and they have been proven wrong so many times in this regarding. On a tech site i'm interested in facts and hard numbers. Not that an analyst firms did such bad research that they had to cut down _their_ expectations by that much.

58. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

Thanks mother hen. You want facts? If the iPhone X was in such huge demand that there was a waiting list Apple would be increasing production to meet that demand no matter where it was in its life cycle. The excuse given by Kiko that it's to make room for a new model may not be true at all since it's speculated that the current model will be retained along with the introduction of a basic one and a larger one. Call it bad research if you like but most are calling it lower sales than even Apple anticipated. A good indicator are the reduced oled orders from Samsung.

59. c.m.s

Posts: 235; Member since: Dec 10, 2017

"Call it bad research if you like but most are calling it lower sales than even Apple anticipated." There you go again. Its not lower sales than Apple anticipated, we know that. Apple met their guidance in the latest report, so it was pretty much spot on what they anticipated. At least for Q4. Again, wait and see if they met their guidance for next one. This article is about some analysts that did not do a very good job at guessing. Thats it. The fact we got is that it sold very well, judging by ASP and Tims comment to Apples investors. Far better than any competitors flagship model. Of course not in the numbers of iPhone 6 but that model was alot cheaper. For example my iPhone 6 when I bought it on release cost about half of what I paid for my iPhone X. But its not like Apple expected to sell as many iPhone X as the sold iPhone 6, in that case we would have seen Apple miss its guidance by far.

60. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

Apple and most people including myself expected the iPhone X to be a much, much bigger seller than it's turned out to be. You keep going on about ASP as if that's the main criteria. If the 256gb versions of all the iPhone models sold more than any other that would account for a higher ASP but wouldn't necessarily mean higher sales numbers. You guys keep deflecting when raw sales numbers are the issue here. Question: Did Apple reduce their initial orders for Amoled screens from Samsung? Answer: Yes. Nuff said.

61. c.m.s

Posts: 235; Member since: Dec 10, 2017

No... Apple did not expect iPhone X to be a "much much bigger seller" than it turned out to be. We have the guidance to tell us just that fact. You do understand what guidance means right? It is based on Apples own expectations and it would have looked completely different if Apple expected the iPhone X to sell "much much more" than it did since it have such influence on their revenue. Answer: Show me the official statement from Apple or Samsung that Apple cut the initial orders of screens. You can't because neither of the company has said that. It's all speculations and rumors.

62. TheOracle1

Posts: 2215; Member since: May 04, 2015

I dunno. I guess you're right and those following the oled market are wrong. I'm sorry I questioned you and almighty Apple. "In the last few weeks we heard several reports that Apple is seeing lower iPhone X sales than initially expected. Japan's Nikkei Asian Review now claims that Apple slashed its iPhone X production target for Q1 2018 from 40 million units to only 20 million." https://www.oled-info.com/apple-expects-iphone-x-shipments-q1-2018-be-half-what-it-originally-estimated Coming from a company that doesn't fully disclose anything to do with unit sales we can surmise from their suppliers. You do know what surmise means?

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