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Analyst: Number of first time Apple iPhone buyers is rapidly shrinking

0. phoneArena posted on 13 Oct 2013, 14:13

Sanford Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi is telling clients that his research shows that the number of first time Apple iPhone buyers is shrinking; last year, 62% of iPhone sales came from first-time buyers, a number that is expected to drop to 54% this year. That is a drop of 13% in net new iPhone buyers. The analyst's concern is that without a deal with China Mobile, there are not enough first time Apple iPhone buyers left for sales to meet consensus forecasts...

This is a discussion for a news. To read the whole news, click here

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 15:00 5

8. GrapeEyes (Posts: 248; Member since: 01 Sep 2013)


October 2016 Apple will sell its mobile division. Due to horrendus issues with its software and overpriced phones.


posted on 13 Oct 2013, 15:13

9. Eonnaydra (Posts: 217; Member since: 23 Oct 2012)

With 150$ billions in bank,they can survive for the next 1000 years.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 15:17 5

10. GrapeEyes (Posts: 248; Member since: 01 Sep 2013)

Not if the $ devalues or collapses :)

Any business well sell a division in it if it is not making profit.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 16:54 1

25. darkkjedii (Posts: 24941; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)

Dude put that stuff down, and stop puffing it. Apples not going anywhere.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 21:13 1

47. -box- (Posts: 3991; Member since: 04 Jan 2012)

Not if their stick loses value like crazy (even more) and they're forced to pay dividends on it and acquire a lot in an effort to keep the bottom from falling out again... Microsoft will have to bail them out again, maybe not by decade's end, but early 2020s maybe.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 15:24 1

13. stealthd (unregistered)

Well, let's see, there aren't any horrendous issues with their software, and their sales continue to grow and beat expectations so being "overpriced" seems to just be your opinion and not at all indicative of the market. So, not going to happen.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 18:39 6

40. PapaSmurf (Posts: 10457; Member since: 14 May 2012)

Except text not being properly aligned, blue screen of death, keyboard in a vertical position, and yes lag.


posted on 13 Oct 2013, 16:03 1

18. trickster_qc (Posts: 107; Member since: 18 Jun 2013)

That's not going to happen simply because no other business would have enough cashflow to buy such a division that would be worth at least 100 billion $.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 22:45

56. nxl2610 (Posts: 49; Member since: 14 Aug 2013)

How about Samsung ?

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 15:49 4

14. darkkjedii (Posts: 24941; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)

As more and more people buy iPhones, there'll be less and less first time buyers.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 16:26 6

21. protozeloz (Posts: 5396; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)

actually no, first time buyers are born daily and their numbers will keep being roughly about the same. every year there is that high school student or college student that will experience a smartphone for the first time as their own

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 16:39

23. darkkjedii (Posts: 24941; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)

Yeah true lol

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 16:53

24. darkkjedii (Posts: 24941; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)

But there'll always be plenty of first time buyers as tech evolves. If apple indeed goes with larger screens next year, tons of newbies will flock to em.

posted on 14 Oct 2013, 03:12

64. rusticguy (Posts: 2828; Member since: 11 Aug 2012)

Really? You mean to say world population is declining?

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 15:51 2

16. techguyone (Posts: 208; Member since: 18 May 2013)

There's a real danger that apples 'lets change a little' each year isn't cutting it anymore. Other manufacturers are doing more, much more and with Jobs gone and no bs reality distortion field around either, the world ain't so easily fooled anymore.

Compound that with each new iteration of anything they do actually update.
For example:
Maps ....
IOS7 man...
Things that just should not (and would not have been released on Jobs's watch in that condition)
I'm frankly surprised that people aren't leaving in droves.

Apple is running out of lives, and need to seriously reevaluate just what the heck their future strategy is, it doesn't take a genius to work out, they're thrashing around like a man with no arms currently.

Expect to start to see boardroom changes in the near future as a minimum.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 17:36

28. stealthd (unregistered)


You realize the 5s/5c launch was a success right? It beat every previous iphone launch, and every other smartphone launch for that matter. How exactly are they "thrashing around like a man with no arms"? Maybe you can say that if sales start to drop for them, but that hasn't happened. It doesn't take a genius to realize you don't know what you're talking about.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 21:24 3

49. -box- (Posts: 3991; Member since: 04 Jan 2012)

9 million moved from the Foxconn and Pegatron factories in China do not equal 9 million sold.

I finally saw my first 2013-model iPhail on Friday night at a sports bar, a friend of my sister-in-law had a yellow 5c with the stupid cheese-grater factory case. I took some pictures with my 925 and she tried the same shots with her phone and was shocked at how awful they were in comparison. Later a friend showed up with his yellow 1020, and she noticed how cheesy-cheap the pastel was on her phone, and today she traded the 5c in for a yellow 920 and her husband's ip5 (not S, end-of-stock 2012 5) for an LG G2 under Buyer's Remorse.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 17:38

30. ardent1 (Posts: 2000; Member since: 16 Apr 2011)

The biggest defect to your assertion is the simple fact the iPhone continues to be the best selling smartphone for the Nth consecutive year. 9 million units were sold at the launch weekend. One study pointed out how both the 5S and 5C were the best selling devices at ATT and Sprint despite the fact both devices WERE NOT available the entire month of Sept. 2013. The same study did point out the 5S, again lacking availability for the entire month, was the best selling handset amongst the top 4 US caririers.

Talk is cheap -- data is cold hard facts.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 21:42 6

52. corporateJP (Posts: 2458; Member since: 28 Nov 2009)

Get outside of the United States and look around, then come back and try to sell me on your product.

posted on 14 Oct 2013, 00:23

59. ardent1 (Posts: 2000; Member since: 16 Apr 2011)


Did you NOT read the press release. The launch weekend involve more countries than just the US?

Seriously, what is your point? There were 11 countries in the initial launch weekend and mainland China was included for the first time. The iPhone 5S and 5C were launched around the world. People around the world want the new iPhones.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 23:15 1

57. apploid (Posts: 3; Member since: 12 Oct 2013)

dude, those sales are not hard and fast indicators of them being iPhone USERS. Some are re-sellers taking advantage of the bulk- and first-order- discounts.
this article targets specific arguments on FIRST-TIME buyers/users.
shallow "sales" may have been "attained" by that 9M units, but the sale- app purchase, new victims/users (same pun w/ Android)- is getting low.
numbers on iTunes v GooglePlay new registration may come interesting as they are the next harvest for Apple and Google to pry at.

its like Platinum sales in 10weeks v triple-Platinum sales in 10years

posted on 14 Oct 2013, 00:32 1

60. ardent1 (Posts: 2000; Member since: 16 Apr 2011)

Dude, the analyst made a mistake in the calculations -- on Wall Street, we called it "Basis" as in basis risk, etc.

The % numbers were calculated on different "bases" (plural form of basis) and that is why you have misleading statistics. Had the analyst used a "static" basis to do the calculations, he would not have suffer a bias in the basis.

As to your second point, it's what we call in economics the "marginal propensity" to buy apps once you are new to the Apple ecosystem. Unfortunately, unless you or I read the actual analyst report as as opposed to a someone's summary, then I am going to withhold my opinion.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 15:56 6

17. corporateJP (Posts: 2458; Member since: 28 Nov 2009)

People thought Moto and Nokia could weather anything too, look where we are now. I own products from all three, so I can say I'm "neutral". But, you're crazy if you believe Apple is immune to falling. Nobody thought Rome would fall either.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 17:41

31. ardent1 (Posts: 2000; Member since: 16 Apr 2011)

Apple already had its fall when Jobs left.

Therefore, Apple CANNOT be immune to a fall as it is a contradiction of then known facts.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 22:05 3

55. corporateJP (Posts: 2458; Member since: 28 Nov 2009)

Apple is a broken branch still hanging on to the tree right now. Wait until the next storm blows through. If you think Apple has fallen as far as it possibly can, I hope, for your own sake, that you are not a heavily-vested stockholder.

Apple is, as we speak, pulling the same "we're oblivious to market-shift and inovation" egotism that Blackberry thought was trump five years ago. Where is Blackberry now?

Google is lightspeed right now compared to Apple's impulse drive. Even Windows is re-evolving to the future model. With Firefox, Ubuntu, Jolla/Sailfish, and others also working to create solid operating systems, I'd be mad scared if I was employed in Cupertino going forward. If the best these guys can do is jank Nokia's color palete and knock $50 off their "new" model, the fall will come faster than you think.

Cupertino is the new Rome if things don't change fast.

posted on 14 Oct 2013, 00:52

61. ardent1 (Posts: 2000; Member since: 16 Apr 2011)

You have your facts mistaken. When Steve Jobs returned to Apple, the company was about 6 months from bankruptcy (source: Steve Job biography).

That is a pretty dire situation. I am simply pointing out Apple had a near-death situation and that is why the company behaves the way it does today. You are clearly discounting the near-death experience as if it never existed.

Now as for your wild assertions about technology, it does NOT line up with what theory tells us.

Take my advice, read the book "The Innovator's Dilemma" by Clayton Christensen -- it is a seminal work that helps predict which technology will win. Google makes money from ad searches -- it needs android to help power the ad searches, which is why android is free. Google is just as likely to fail like MicroSoft (since Google adopted the MicroSoft model) -- Apple is different and has always been different since its launch of the Macintoish in 1984 with rounded rectangular icons built on a belief that consumers wanted integrated products.

The story goes that Andy Grove of Intel caught wind of Christensen's work and then passed the theory to Steve Jobs of Apple. That is to say, Apple has had a long time to prepare against disruptive technology. Apple's success to date are designed to compete with low-cost technologies.

Just read the book -- it will open your eyes on how to see technology.


posted on 13 Oct 2013, 16:36 3

22. livyatan (Posts: 867; Member since: 19 Jun 2013)

And for anyone still tinking about buying one.. heres a nice video :


Spoiler - i Phone did TERRIBLY in a whole lot of direct comparisons with a one year old Nexus!

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 17:55

34. stealthd (unregistered)

That video is crap. His "test" is just flicking a webpage around as fast as possible to induce lag, like that's supposed to be a good indication of overall browser performance. I just tried it on my 5s with safari, didn't get any of the lag he did. Did get the lag on Chrome though.

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 17:59 4

35. livyatan (Posts: 867; Member since: 19 Jun 2013)

He did the flicking with Nexus also or did you missed that?
Just like a typical iPhone buyer.. blind for anything else and thinking they have a magical device.
Watch other videos please and then talk about the real crap that is the i Phone

posted on 13 Oct 2013, 18:38 2

39. PapaSmurf (Posts: 10457; Member since: 14 May 2012)

Why am I not surprised to hear this from you?

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