Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray expects the majority of new Verizon iPhone customers to be former AT&T customers. By his estimates, AT&T would sell 17.5 million iPhones in 2011, if they were the only carrier. With Verizon releasing an iPhone some time around the end of the first quarter, he expects that number to slip to 11 million. Verizon will sell 9 million in the last three quarters of the year, adding 14% to Apple's overall U.S. iPhone sales.
Verizon won't be too disappointed by coming up 2 million short of AT&T. Their estimated 9 million units sold in 2011 will only represent 36% of their smartphone sales. On the other hand, the iPhone makes up 80% of AT&T's smartphone sales. But analysts expect the iPhone to continue to grow for both carriers, with both AT&T and Verizon selling 14 million in 2012.
This is all obviously speculation for now, but AT&T is surely starting to get nervous. Then again, many expect the Verizon iPhone to doom Big Red to a similar reputation for slow service. Only time will tell. But how about you? Are you an AT&T customer planning on jumping ship? Or are you an existing Verizon customer intent on getting an iPhone?