Ultra-low cost revolution Part 2: which platform wins?
We've already looked at how Google can use Motorola to break into this segment, how multiple-user support is essential, and the cultural and economic revolution that could follow the technology boom. Of course, that's the issue - the boom has already started, and while some of the major players in the smartphone market planned for it at one point, they have moved on very quickly. This leaves a huge market segment opportunity for far more platforms than we see in most markets.
In Europe, North America, and Japan, the major players in the smartphone market are Android and iOS; then, depending on the country, there will be minor to modest shares for BlackBerry, Symbian, bada, and Windows Phone. Of course, we always have to remember that the rest of the world is mostly feature phone territory. Smartphones haven't even surpassed 50% of the mobile device shipments worldwide, and beyond that, shipments and install bases are two different things. Feature phones still have an install base close to 70% of the mobile phone market; and, although the shipment numbers are in a free fall for Symbian right now, as of January Symbian still held 90% of the African smartphone market. So, even if the shipments are falling, the install base is still there.
BlackBerry also has a large segment of the market share in certain areas of Africa. In South Africa, BlackBerry holds 48% of the smartphone market, but the smartphone market is fairly small. Android makes up less than 1% of the market, and iPhone is less than .5%. The rest of the South African smartphone market is held by Nokia and Symbian, which is most likely to change.
Android has been the platform that has been taking over most regions around the world, and it looks poised to do the same in in Africa. Of course, Microsoft also wants to be part of that emerging market. This was why Microsoft created Windows Phone Tango to begin with. The trouble is, emerging markets like Africa and South America rely on ultra-low cost smartphones, and both school and Microsoft have moved past their platforms which run well on low-cost devices. Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich, Android 4.1 Jelly Bean, and Windows Phone 8 are all designed to run on high-end devices, and simply won't work with older hardware.
In fact, none of the major smartphone platforms can run on ultra-low cost smartphones right now. Apple doesn’t make products for low end markets. Versions of BlackBerry that run on low end devices are being phased out in favor of BlackBerry 10. Symbian is dying. Google has left behind Android 2.3 Gingerbread, which could run on low end devices. And similarly, Microsoft has left behind Windows Phone 7.5 which was designed for low end devices. So, it seems as though the only options for these emerging markets would be either use an outdated version of old platform, which would come with security risks and lack of support, or go with a less feature rich solution. As we mentioned last time, the Nucleus real-time operating system (RTOS) has tended to be that solution.
Of course, the Nucleus RTOS doesn’t offer the apps and features that we would expect from a smartphone platform. This means that options that we would use in order to connect with other people around the world may not be available, except possibly as a web app. And, if Nucleus or any other platform like it doesn’t have a web browser that’s up to par, that could severely limit the possibilities brought by the smartphone revolution. The closest option is Nokia's S40.
It is certainly possible that Google and Microsoft will once again adapt their new platforms for low-end markets, but the farther along we go, the more difficult that's going to be. With each successive iteration of Android and Windows Phone, as with any operating systems, the minimum requirements for the platform continue to rise. This will leave ultra-low cost devices farther and farther behind as we move forward, and it'll open up an opportunity for a competitor to move into what is the fastest growing market segment in the world.
As we said before, Apple doesn't build for low-end markets, so emerging markets are going to have to settle for older Apple devices, if they are to get any Apple devices of all. Microsoft is likely to ride out Windows Phone 7.5 in emerging markets as long as it can and hope that hardware costs come down enough that Windows phone eight will be able to transition in sooner rather than later. BlackBerry already has a pretty solid base in emerging markets. BlackBerry is available in 40 African countries, and RIM has deals with 85 different carriers on the continent. So, even with the introduction of BlackBerry 10 fairly soon, it seems that BB 7 will certainly be a platform targeted towards emerging markets.
And, as always there is Android. Manufacturers like Huawei and Samsung are determined to increase footholds in emerging markets. As of this past March, Samsung held 10% of the sub-Saharan mobile phone market and had vowed to double that market share within a year. That doesn't necessarily mean smartphones, but given Samsung's history with Android devices, it's easy to assume that the company has the devices available that can be sold as ultra-low cost handsets. This will undoubtedly mean that the Android platform statistics that we always see will continue to have a fairly high rate of Android 2.3 Gingerbread, because these low-cost devices simply can't handle the newer versions of android. And, if the rate of smartphone adoption in emerging markets moves as quickly as analysts expect, that could mean that Gingerbread continues to see new activations far longer than Google would like, until hardware costs come down enough for newer versions to be pushed out.
Of course, we would love to be proven wrong, and to see Google will rework the Jelly Bean code to be able to scale better to lower and devices, or see Microsoft do the same with Windows Phone 8, but that is pretty unlikely. Perhaps this will be an opportunity for platform like webOS to make a comeback, or perhaps Samsung plans to increase its market share in Africa by using bada, but only time will tell, and it's unclear if that would even be the best solution.
2. Stoli89 (Posts: 333; Member since: 28 Jun 2010)
I'm amazed that this author attempted to write about low cost emerging market mobile OS's and never once mentioned S40. Nokia's "feature" phone OS allows the user to download apps, has built in navigation, e-mail, messaging, etc. It only lacks multi-tasking...which last time I checked puts it in the ballpark of IOS and WP7.5. Nokia is selling over 90 Million of these devices a QUARTER.
6. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2650; Member since: 26 May 2011)
I had considered it, but felt that S40 wasn't really in the "smartphone" world. Still, it should have gotten a mention. I'll fix that.
9. kindlefireowner (Posts: 332; Member since: 05 Dec 2011)
What security risk with gingerbread are you talking about.
12. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2650; Member since: 26 May 2011)
It is far easier to get malware onto Gingerbread because it doesn't employ ASLR
15. neutralguy (Posts: 1152; Member since: 30 Apr 2012)
touched optimized S40 devices are smartphone aren't they? Based on experience, it could be the best platform for "ultra-low" cost phones. Android just can't really do it that well when put on a low spec phone.
19. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
basically they are not smartphone OS... it can be called a smartphone if it can multitask..S40 cant do that.. you need to kill the apps before returning to menu and read or reply on a message...
i have a java base cheap smartphone, cheaper than s40 phone.. it can multitask.. i can read and reply to messages while my app is still running on background...
21. redmd (Posts: 860; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
I thought you were talking about IOS in the first paragraph.
29. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
thumbs down me... but you cant change the truth that s40 cant multitask... and all its apps are java...
33. neutralguy (Posts: 1152; Member since: 30 Apr 2012)
I don't know that the definition of "smartphone" was all about multitasking.. back in the days, people would call n95 a smartphone. Even this phone was called a smartphone:
oh, anyway, definition changes as time passes by.
34. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
well ok...maybe its not.. but we are living today... so smartphones basically needs multitasking and rich ecosystem... and s40 dont have that!! symbian has multitasking and decent set of apps (100,000 is i think plenty...)
38. thelegend6657 (unregistered)
Nokia should have used s60 in asha lineup instead of s40
Why have a feature+ OS on a asha with the 1ghz CPU ?
Honestly my n97 is a lot better with 1ghz CPU but its slow because Nokia put in a lousy 434 MHz CPU
41. TylerGrunter (Posts: 864; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)
Michael, thanks for the good article.
Are you sure that "Smartphones have surpassed 50% of the mobile device shipments worldwide"?
I highly doubt it, as per the last sales report 150 mill smartphones were sold out of 400 mill, that's still less than 40%.
Are shipments really that different from real sales?
3. snowgator (Posts: 3188; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
Windows Phone Tango (Nokia 610) was designed with just that in mind. I do think 7.5/7.8 could be used, but Tango was designed for low end builds, less RAM, and smooth operation on the low end.
Stoli89 sure has a point, though. Hard to argue with 90 million devices a year.
22. redmd (Posts: 860; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
Cut the price of Nokia 610 in half and now we're talking ultra-low cost.
32. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
they should really need to cut downt the price.. both BB7 and WP7 devices.. since they both wont be upgraded to BB10 and WP8 respectively...
but in my place lumia 800 go down... before it was like 24990 now ith 19990.. but still pricey for a phone that wount be supported....
same goes to BlackBerry... samsung's last flagship cut down its price but BB's high end and flagship (Torch and Bold) still pricey...
36. denied911 (banned) (Posts: 361; Member since: 31 May 2012)
glaxy y&mini baby
that's low cost
4. jroc74 (Posts: 4720; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
For low cost...they all win as long as the price is right and the phone, software works fine.
5. webOSlove (Posts: 101; Member since: 20 Feb 2012)
I WISH webOS would make a comeback in these market s
28. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
yeah.. i was hoping it too... i mean once upon a time webOS was US most love OS... but HP make a stupidiest move.. and destroy webOS... but thank to some effort of firing the CEO, webOS might be awaken from its long slumber... it will be open source and it might be a threat to android..but it will use the most advance linux kernel... android is currently on 3.1 linux and newly open webOS is 3.3...
i dont know what kernel will jolla OS use.. jolla is the baby of meego and mer... a true linux!
7. POLICE (banned) (Posts: 61; Member since: 21 Aug 2012)
By the way, nice article as usual Michael H.
Hope they all do well.
8. someguy (Posts: 2; Member since: 21 Aug 2012)
Oops, you forgot Mozilla and their upcoming Firefox OS, which is specifically targeting low cost mobile phones and markets like Brazil:
14. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
its not ready for primetime... i think this article is focusing on emerging market... basically firefox OS is not suitable on that market.. its basically all internet base, HTML5 codes, apps, etc.. so during offline, the phone is dead...
49. webOSlove (Posts: 101; Member since: 20 Feb 2012)
webOS was internet based as well, and it ran just fine on phones . in 2009, it wasnt ready for primetime, but now, is probably the right time
50. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
oh.... so i thats why i wanted webOS to comeback... i mean... it will be a great competition to android in open source!!
but honestly, HP needs to change the name.. open webOS sounds pathetic.. not that catchy...
10. MeoCao (unregistered)
Android wins hands down.
It's popular, no cost, easy acess, good support from various open source projects unlike any other platform.
16. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
but you forgot that its not free at all.. remember that manufacturers like HTC and samsung pays Microsoft $10-12 due to royalties in every android devices they sold? and apple is suing samsung and wants them to pay $30-40 on every smartphone and tablet they sold?
the android for low end is upto 2.3 only... then it will soon be phase out... but that if ICS or JB will play right on a single core 800mhz..even 2.3 lags a lot on that processor speed...
18. AppleWho (banned) (Posts: 57; Member since: 06 Aug 2012)
single core, 1GHz, 1GB RAM phones would suffice - have Samsung come out with the Captivate again and mass market that baby in Africa only. I still have mine and it runs great on JB.
20. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
but we are talking about super low here... yes 1ghz of processor is now available on cheap market (mediatek, allwinner) but 1gb of ram is not... it will be pricey if they will do that..
23. MeoCao (unregistered)
MS can squeeze the juice out of big OEMs, it's impossible to do the same to hundreds of small ones that make low cost phones.
11. shuaibhere (Posts: 1297; Member since: 07 Jul 2012)
Why not meego...?
it can run android apps and coded in c and c++ so can easily used in low cost devices.....
13. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
well meego is dead... jolla OS is the new born OS on meego, mer and linux now!!
42. shuaibhere (Posts: 1297; Member since: 07 Jul 2012)
Still it has chance...
Why not jolla make low end devices......
17. AppleWho (banned) (Posts: 57; Member since: 06 Aug 2012)
Android running on 2.3.x, aka Gingerbread, would be a cheap alternative.....not sure if I trust a HUAWEI smartphone, though.
26. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
uhhmm no... soon 2.3 will be phase out... and the support will be lost...
24. redmd (Posts: 860; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
Android will win. Various OEM especially from China are behind it.
27. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
yeah thats for sure... but those china phone will be good enoigh?
25. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
i basically believe if nokia just choose symbian belle on low end "smartphone" instead of s40 touch "smartphone-like" interface there low end will grow... they forgot how demanding these market is now... people want to multitask and loads of apps.. and symbian can do that and s40 cant...
symbian has 100,000 of apps on nokia store while s40 has 25,000 all java.. symbian can run both java and .sis file..
if its truely that google will push its OS (the ICS and JB) to low end, nokia's market will be shaken... and people on that maket will realize that "wow my apps is still running on the background without closing it while im texting/viewing messages/pictures and facebook/twitter post" and they will soon go to android colony..
but if they will continue to support symbian, and make it the OS on low end market... it will not be shaken.. loads of apps, multitasking and its not battery hog... but nokia didnt listen.. instead they go full windows phone they abandon the OS that give them clothes...
and after all symbian dont need latest of latest hardware to perform task... it will run fluidly on a single core 800mhz processor...
and they also abandon meego.. it is truely the answer but they deny its calling... apps is the only problem but its the only real linux so vast of community can support it...
for more info of what im talking about please read this.. thanks mynokiablogdotcom/2012/08/19/mnb-reader-generated-symbian-or-android/
just change "dot" to "." coz PA block MNB!!!
and what that blog is saying is facts... so i want you guys to read it!
30. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
i wish BB10 to be available in more market.. cheap low end standard mid range and cheap highend with killer specs!!!
37. fiebor (Posts: 14; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
NokiaS40 devices are sold out in millions everyday in africa mostly in Nigeria no platform can beat that even in ten years to come i mean no platform. The asha line up has sold miillions upon millions since its appearance in africa and they are bringing more of those device e.g asha 311,305,306,308,304,307. Nokia low end devices are the monsters in the lowend markets.
39. fiebor (Posts: 14; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
and who said symbian is a dieing platform do you know symbian phones outsells in other platform in africa, e.g same Nigeria. They sell this devices everyday in those stores, i mean brand new devices and cargo. The only sells more in Nigeria, is still in cargo.symbian still rules.in terms of sales. Its hard for you to see 100s of people going to those shops and buy brandnew blackberry phones. But, for Nokia its a different case. Nokia could still the race if they had more high specs devices in symbian, which coould have possibly attract more developers. But mind symbian phones functions like mad, as in they are good, e.g N8 E6 E7 E5 C5 C7 C6 5800 E73 E72 E71 E61i E63 X6 and many which i could not mention.
40. fiebor (Posts: 14; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
the sales of symbian phones in Nigeria is very strong and it outsells any platform you which to call.
43. JunkCreek (Posts: 399; Member since: 13 Jul 2012)
well, Sony Ericsson since the first it release k750 can do multitasking yet it is not called smartphone. but for that reason i go always to se not to nokia. s40 always not good enough for apps and games. se got just what i need. and iphone, i can afford for its very high cost and android give me an option just like se did from nokia (motorola has a great phone just like se but they lack development in their java apps and games to run on the phone; samsung has great java but it is not always compactible especially for games; nokia i getting tired to go back and forth just to find -say- how to change ringtone/wallpaper, setting mms/internet profiles, ect.
miss the time how se always had a mid-end device with more features than others in the same segments.
for low cost device, i think it is okay to keep android 2.3 still runs and developed for mid-end and low-end device while for the flag phone android uses its latest features just like nokia using s40 for mid and low-end and s60 for its high and flag phones.
just like windows, xp still has the the time untill now and people go to windows 7 just because it is pre installed on their buyed pc/laptop/notebook, but eventually, when the price more affordable people will slow but sure moving on windows 7. but i still thought it is okay to keep xp developep for low cost and personal pc/laptops while windows 7 is for latest and greater company needs.
44. DigitalMD (Posts: 226; Member since: 17 Feb 2010)
Irrelevant because the future of smartphone or indeed having no future, actually depends on if cell carriers continue the trend of charging more for less. If they continue to escalate usage costs, then the smart phone craze is doomed and there won;t be any need to innovate.
45. Nathan_ingx (Posts: 2992; Member since: 07 Mar 2012)
Darn you Nokia!!
You give symbian 40 device a 1ghz processor and my symbian 60 device a mere 434mhz processor! And it's even way cheaper. Not fair!
Wish i could fire up my old s60v5 device with a 1ghz processor and atleast 500mb of ram.
Let me tell you something people, it's not just about multi tasking or how the operator system works. The main thing in a low-end device is it's simplicity. And i'll tell you, symbian has that! You don't expect your old man to understand and install all those apps available online do you?
Most budget phone loving people are aged man and women... They don't look at the speed and the memory. They just want to hold on to something they can call people with.
46. pikapowerize (banned) (Posts: 1869; Member since: 03 May 2012)
whats the point of 1ghz processor of s40 but cant multitask? dumb right?! nokia's biggest mistake is abandoning symbian....
they should make symbian the OS of the low end smartphone!! not S40!!! s40 is dead when fighting android!! especially that samsung's cheapest the galaxy y is cheaper than asha's!!!
47. ehas423 (Posts: 18; Member since: 24 May 2012)
" there's no guarantee that S40/S60 will continue to get support."
LOL. Nokia's bread and butter is the featurephone segment and to say that S40 won't be getting any support in the future is ridiculous. Just because Nokia's focus is now on WP doesn't necessarily mean they'll forget the segment that they've been dominating for years.
And as to the OS , S40 is the OS for the ULTRA-low cost as of now and hopefully the future if they'll continue to improve it just like what they did with the new s40 full touch. You're asking for ultra-low coast and S40 phones couldn't get any more ultra than the rest.
Android might be the one that'll take over the low cost segment or WP 7.5, but I guess only time will tell if they'll do. But as for now s40 holds that throne.