Smartphone growth to continue, growth rate slows, Windows Phone share moves up
0. phoneArena 05 Dec 2012, 02:00 posted on
IDC expects 2012 to show a year-over-year growth of 1.4% in the mobile phone market, strong smartphone growth...
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6. eisenbricher (Posts: 965; Member since: 09 Aug 2012)
Such surveys don't hold any importance in the current pace of Market. It's predicting 4 years ahead and there the biggest mistake lies.
Market changes at huge pace. Just before two years who could have predicted that MS is going to release such a promising OS, when market had only those old gen windows phones?
I honestly think that the given changes don't stick to the timeline. Maybe this prediction come closer to truth in a nearby timeframe. But one thing must be kept in mind that, it is Running, not walking.
13. MeoCao (unregistered)
The real chance for WP is actually WP7 and not WP8. I can't see WP8 to win more market share as there are only 2-3 models with OG CPUs. There are die hard WP fans that will stick with the platform no matter what but not much beyond that. Normal people will buy Android or iPhone when they look for a top phone.
But with low end phones things are different. WP7 is smooth and people just don't care what OS is in the phone, they may not need lots of apps either and Nokia brand is still strong in new markets like Africa or Asia.
I read that Nokia has plan to release new cheap WP7 devices for new markets and that is very smart move.
15. tashreef (Posts: 475; Member since: 24 Nov 2012)
yes i totally agree...
Windows Phone 8 share will grow more then what they are predicting....
Android will lose Market shares strongly...
2. mas11 (Posts: 1017; Member since: 30 Mar 2012)
Eh I think the iPhone is at its peak, in 4 years it will be just as popular as the Mac. If Microsoft plays its cards right they could take over 30% of the market.
3. MixMaster (Posts: 18; Member since: 09 Nov 2012)
I don't think Windows will gain so much market share. And iOS..i'm not quite sure if it will gain 1%. I'm an Android fan and user but let's face it. Apple's growth depends on just one event in these next 4 years. If they release a good iPhone they will gain more than 1% because they have a well established fan base and there are still many neutral customers which chose Android just because it was a cheap phone that was more than enough for them (I do not consider them Android fans, i think if something really nice is released by Apple, Nokia, Rim they will migrate). But if they will keep making these incremental updates I think they will loose market shares. And Android will gain more and more traction, of course slower than before, but i think this will happen because starting next year we will already see entry or feature phones with 4.2 on them. And 4.2 is a really powerfull piece of software to have on a 50-100-150-200 dollars unlocked phone. Like people were saying before that they do not need a smartphone because they just make calls and send texts, now they will say why spend 700-800 bucks on an iphone when a cheap Sony for example offers me Android 4.2 which basicaly offers you more than iOS 6 in my opinion.
5. Piyush91 (Posts: 9; Member since: 27 Nov 2012)
but phones don't ship with android 4.2....android 4.1 has been released for quite some time(let alone 4.2), but 50% phones are still stuck on Gingerbread...
Thanks to manufacturers...
7. MixMaster (Posts: 18; Member since: 09 Nov 2012)
I am aware of this. That's why I said that only starting next year we will see these 4.2 entry level phones. Maybe Q3 or Q4. And these GB phones will slowly disappear because thay will be replaced, not updated.
9. Piyush91 (Posts: 9; Member since: 27 Nov 2012)
but by that time android 5.0 would have released...and we will again be 2 or 3 generations behind...but i get your point...hope it happens....
12. MeoCao (unregistered)
Most of Gingerbread phones are in new markets where customer support are very poor and people there don't expect their phones to be upgraded. The only way for GB percentage to drop is people throw the phones and buy new ones.
4. idc.is.liarr (Posts: 1; Member since: 05 Dec 2012)
IDC is a liar. A paid company by microsoft.
First time microsoft pay IDC when they launch the WP7 to create a hype but fail.
I'm surprised that IDC/microsoft think can fool us twice.
NO ONE WANT A WP PHONE.
17. tashreef (Posts: 475; Member since: 24 Nov 2012)
i agree they are liar ..
because the WP will acquire more than the prediction...
21. IDC.junk (Posts: 3; Member since: 04 Dec 2012)
I really think that Microsoft should use the money to see why no one want their modern UI (WP7/WP8/W8) instead of giving it to IDC to create bogus analysis.
Because from where I stand Microsoft is like a kid who yell “HELP, THERE'S A WOLF”. The first time microsoft pay IDC, some were fooled (2% WP user)... I don't think they will be fooled again for the second time after experiencing how awful the WP phone were.
Here is some good read on why WP7 fail:
* From WPCentral: wpcentral.com/bernstein-research-people-dont-want-windows-phone
* From Tomi: communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/11/why-nokia-lumia-and-windows-phone-8-will-fail-ie-will-never-become-the-promised-third-ecosystem.html
* From Eldar: mobile-review.com/articles/2012/wp7-1-en.shtml & mobile-review.com/articles/2012/wp7-2-en.shtml
* From bussiness insider: businessinsider.com/microsoft-tablet-sales-2012-12
22. freebee269 (Posts: 498; Member since: 10 Aug 2012)
that wpcentral article was in august, these nokia or htc phones werent even out yet let alone wp8. you can scrap that article. the "wp8 will fail" article obviously debunked its own self with how well phones with wp8 are selling. microsoft has ALWAYS kept their numbers tight liped. yet they are still around making profit. you can scrap that article.
if nokia and htc keep making phones that ppl like and MS brings out updates for their OS (one is coming very soon), then any educated person can see that their stock and sales will keep going up. and thats not even including any other manufacturer that might want to jump in the game. i think the 11% market share in the future is a safe % that they threw out there. but honestly i could see it being more like 15%. alot depends on how well the lumia 920T does in china.
24. IDC.junk (Posts: 3; Member since: 04 Dec 2012)
Which part of the 5 simple word you don't understand???
NO ONE WANT MICROSOFT PHONE.
Microsoft even fake the people who line up
see this: theatlanticwire.com/technology/2012/10/microsoft-fakes-excitement-its-surface-tablet-launch/58417/
Don't think Nokia 920T could reach 15%. It would be go down to toilet too.
27. jed27 (Posts: 65; Member since: 09 Jun 2012)
Rebecca Greenfield, the so-called 'writer' of the article you linked, is the very reason I don't go to Atlantic Wire.
8. SonyXperiaNexus (Posts: 374; Member since: 01 Oct 2012)
Thats all fine and dandy but...... get the f****** apps in the store quick.
11. Shino (Posts: 159; Member since: 23 Jul 2012)
These predictions are usually very inacurate. However I believe that iOS will gain gust a little more, Android will fall dramatically to about 40-50% and WP will gain at least 30-40% if not even more. Only BB is a big unknown.
26. Joshing4fun (Posts: 1037; Member since: 13 Aug 2010)
I agree. I know a lot of people who are getting tired of android and are looking at windows phone and (unfortunately) the iphone.
14. Sarajevo (Posts: 37; Member since: 30 Nov 2012)
Well, there was Nokia and Symbian number 1 in 2009 with almost 50% of market share, and look at them today. So, it can happen to iOS too. Or WP8 could receive an update and become even better than Android. In that case, WP can hold 50% of market share in 2016?! Also, there is not well known Jolla with ex-MeeGoo but brand new OS that could become hit on the market like Android was in 2010.
So, these predictions for 4-5 years are non sense in mobile market...
16. speckledapple (Posts: 877; Member since: 29 Sep 2011)
Though I purchased my Galaxy Note 2 already, I can easily see Windows Phone gaining some serious market share after spending some time with the Nokia 920. That is one solid device.
19. allen83 (Posts: 105; Member since: 01 Mar 2012)
As for me let us just wait and see what will happen next. IDC said two names of OS the Tizen and Sailfish they said that they will have a hard time competing with the other OS yes its true but with great strategy and having a good relationship to carriers those two will succeed. Just like Bada it is not a well known OS but it was well perceive by the people. And for Jolla i hope them the best and I think that a true spirit of Nokia lives in them the Gentle Giant Nokia of the past
20. aco96 (Posts: 168; Member since: 12 Oct 2012)
This doesn't prove anything. When Android came out everyone thought that it won't even surpass iOS, and that Symbian will still be the most popular os...
23. snowgator (Posts: 3160; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
Who is going hold IDC accountable in 2016 for these predictions?
Love to see both BB10 and WP 8 huge successes. Android and iOS are in no way threatened by them, but 4 OS options would be great. If developers are willing to bet on RIM and MS, then they will all be fine and profitable.
Be interesting to see if any other OS even has a chance to make it out of the gates. I count 4 more in Jolla, Mozella, the Tizen product, and HP pushing open sourced WebOS. Seems unlikely to think more then 4 can get enough traction to survive, don't it?
25. IDC.junk (Posts: 3; Member since: 04 Dec 2012)
Don't you feel strange....
When there's only android and iOS to support.
Some developer ignore android because android not as big/important as apple.
but when WP7 & BB10 is WWAAAAYYYYYY smaller than android/iOS, developer love them...
It's ALL LIE!!!!!!!
It's all Microsoft FUD that were spread with astroturfer
* using Oprah Winfrey to said nice things about surface (the misscheff manage by Oprah Winfray to use ipad and got caught)
* using IDC to create fake forcast to make WP8 looks cool