Nokia's choice of Windows Phone 7 a $14.6 bln gift for the industry?
Nokia's choice of Windows Phone as its main platform was dubbed the Elopocalypse for Nokia and more analysts agree on that despite Stephen Elop's media efforts. Tomy Ahonen, an ex-executive at Nokia, claims that this move is equal to a $14.6 billion gift to other phone makers in the industry.
The estimate is based on the premise that Nokia will give up 50 million smartphones and that market share will surely be occupied by rivals. At an average price of $292 per phone, that leads us to the $14.6 billion number. And that, folks, is the best case scenario, according to Ahonen. Things don't look rosy from that point of view and even if Microsoft injects “billions not millions” in Nokia, it would hardly make up for the expected loss in market share. The analyst predicts that by the end of 2011, Nokia's smartphone market share will shrink to around 12% before the expected launch of the first Nokia Windows Phone 7 handset.
Who will benefit the most? Surprisingly for some – it would be RIM in Ahonen's opinion. Nokia is particularly strong in Western Europe and some Asian markets like China and India. That's where RIM and Apple will capitalize on Nokia's shrinking Symbian sales.
Here is what the smartphone market shares will look like in Ahonen's estimates:
Brand . . . . . . . . . . . Q4 2010 . . . . . . . . Q4 2011
Nokia . . . . . . . . . . . 28% . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Apple . . . . . . . . . . . 16% . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
RIM . . . . . . . . . . . . 14% . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Samsung . . . . . . . . 11% . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . 10% . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
SonyEricsson . . . . 5% . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Motorola . . . . . . . . . 5% . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Others . . . . . . . . . 11% . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
source: Communities Dominate Brands blog
1. bluechris (unregistered)
A really long article, but this, and the other he had this week are all well worth a read, just brew a cup of tea/coffee and get comfy first.
Also, worth a mention that in response to comments hi cites Nokia's expected market share at the end of the year had the proceeded with Symbian and Meego to be about 18-20%.
Regardless of how pretty WP7 and the excitement that some people feel about WP running on Nokia hardware, if these predictions come true, it will still take some time to make up for lost market share, and really, is this a good thing for Nokia long term.
10. downphoenix (Posts: 2415; Member since: 19 Jun 2010)
yes its a good think long term, bc their market share is sliding with symbian, and meego wont ever sell. WP7 is a new kid on the block, and is fighting an uphill battle, but unlike Nokia's current OSs, actually has growth room and potential.
2. snowgator (Posts: 3293; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
Sooooo, basically- this guy is guessing? I think I may trust some of Phone Arena's bloggers more then guy who that not only isn't an employee at Nokia anymore, but one can guess as an executive, he had a hand in running Nokia onto the hamster wheel that got them in trouble in the first place. Sorta like Matt Millan, the GM that ran the Detroit Lions into the esteemed 0-16 season of a few years ago, giving his opinion on the NFL labor problems.
3. bluechris (unregistered)
I think he quit Nokia in 2001 so it's probably unfair to say he got nokia into their present situation - he would have had very little to do with Nokia's choices over the last 10 years, except perhaps comment on them.
It is a guess, but if you read his article and the ones which proceed it, it is a reasonable and educated guess.
6. killemall (unregistered)
All analysts do gues, but their guess is based on hard logic, and remember, they are paid to guess correcly, so we can trust in those guesses (mostly) :D
Anycase Nothing is forever. So its Nokias time to fall. I did not want to see it, but what can i do... Anycase now i am looking to other companies, and thinking which will be the phone i buy.
Since there is only 3 companies, that now do realy are interested in phone industry (Apple, HP, Blackberry) [reasons why only these 3 i will not mention, but i do have damm good one], and none of them do offers all i want in phone, will be hard to chose next device to buy.
13. snowgator (Posts: 3293; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
With you on the perfect phone thought. It seems each manufacturer gets close, but then I read reviews on a phone, and something will creep up that you just do not like, or it doesn't have that is a deal breaker. Looking foreword to the day you call up a phone dealer and order your phone with the options you want like you can with a car dealer. "Yeah, hold the dual core, give me a slightly better browser, a tad more security, a 5 row keyboard, and ... green. I want it hunters green."
14. Landmarkcm (Posts: 465; Member since: 11 Aug 2009)
Hp has a long way to go to bring WebOs back from the dead. Wp7 is off to a running start in the market. I would reccomend the LG Quantum to you myself..
4. ryq (unregistered)
wrong person to ask that question. he may be right but he is bias.
5. jmat (unregistered)
His article is a good reading, but for an "expert" what he did not explain is how RIM/HTC or any other company will produce +50M phones for this year.
May be apple can increase its production, but the rest?
7. Mike the Pirate (unregistered)
I wouldn't gamble my house on one person's opinion.
8. asdf (unregistered)
nokia's market share has already dropped from 28% to 12%. nokia sticking with what they've been doing is obviously not working.
9. RVM (unregistered)
yea, and pigs fly
11. JustPlainDave (Posts: 45; Member since: 03 Feb 2011)
I'd like to see Nokia succeed. The more phone makers there are, the more competition there is. The more competition there is, the higher quality devices they'll make and the lower prices they'll have to offer them for. I like Nokias. I have one as a backup in a drawer somewhere that still works. Never had a signal or battery problem with it. Gotta love good quality.
12. nmnn (unregistered)
clearly, he's an apple fan