IDC: Nearly 1 billion Android smartphones may be shipped this year, plus 180 million iPhones and 47 million Windows Phones
0. phoneArena 27 Feb 2014, 11:19 posted on
While the smartphone adoption growth rate is slowing down, we'll still probably see about 1.2 billion units shipped throughout 2014, with an estimated 950 million of those being Android-based..
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5. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
WP is no immediate threat to Google, but the real test is that if WP increases it's share by double in 2015, that should worry Apple even more than they already should be....
Nevertheless, it's about quality over quantity in any case, and WP holds it's own there...
But, you have to give it to Apple, and Google for turning the mobile industry on it's head... Let's just keep in mind how quickly these industries can change... Look back at 2007........
14. SleepingOz (unregistered)
2015? Well, according from the same company, from 2012 to 2013 their market share only increased by 0.9%, not even 1%.
It's no where near a threat to iOS. Besides, Apple will release a complete new iPhone this year, not a refreshed S version. Their market share will rise again.
"Nevertheless, it's about quality over quantity in any case, and WP holds it's own there... "
In your humble opinion. :)
34. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
You're saying that WP doesn't have quality?
15. ihavenoname (Posts: 1693; Member since: 18 Aug 2013)
Why should Apple be worried? They don't care how much iPhone sells compared to others, as long as it sells well and customers are happy, which both happen now (quality over quantity, as you said). And on high-end market, I don't see Lumia models big threat to iPhone, because most of sold iPhones are 5Ss and most of sold Lumias are budget 520s.
36. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Who says that just because it's low end that it has to be poor quality... I see you're used to the Android model..
44. AfterShock (Posts: 3698; Member since: 02 Nov 2012)
Hmm nice double standard.
Only android low end is junk huh?
Add in, that you allude it was like 90℅ of the sales in your eyes..
Bias at its finest.
64. DigitalJedi_X2 (banned) (Posts: 346; Member since: 30 Jan 2012)
You didn't have to say it. You're implying it. Yes, some Android low end is complete rubbish, but the same goes for WP. Phone and tablet wise. Be consistent and unbiased or just be quiet.
75. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
Actually, you did. See comments #2 and 3. You built onto someone else's comment with your own, very directly implying precisely what you are claiming to have never said. So, be honest, my friend.
84. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
That's not how I meant it, and if you don't believe me,,, then sorry, can't help you.. I'm telling you what I meant now.. Take it or leave it.. I don't have to keep explaining myself.. Why do I? Why should I?..
90. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
Fine. Just sayin' you should be honest about your intent. It just doesn't add up right now. But, I'll leave it alone.
72. donfem (Posts: 646; Member since: 30 Mar 2011)
The bottomline is money. Nokia does not need to be worried just like you said apple shouldn't be. However the money is made, the viability of the company through any product is all that counts.
26. sgodsell (Posts: 3637; Member since: 16 Mar 2013)
So where is Microsoft's Nokia X stand in its about quality over quantity? I guess Nokia has to make crappy phones as well.
37. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
That line of devices hasn't even hit the market... Next..
And, don't ever ask me a lame question like that again.. What's wrong with you?
50. protozeloz (Posts: 5396; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)
It was announced dude, there is no going back, deal with it
85. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
Even Elop can't undo it now... otherwise, we would have seen the "Normandy" prototype pop up for sale on eBay by now.
87. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
To be truthful..... There hasn't yet been a WP device my by a no name manufacturer.. About as low as WP has gone is ZTE, maybe Huawei.. And, those generally aren't the best, but not too bad.. Now, as far as Nokia, when have you seen them make a poor quality device?
109. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
Ummm... as much as I loved Symbian, I have to admit that S60 5th Edition was a bummer. That's why I laughed under my breath back when Apple once sued Nokia over features in S60 5th Edition. Have you ever met anyone who actually had a good experience with an N97? I have met two people with N97's, years ago of course, and both had had it up to their eyeballs with 'em. Then there was the Nokia 5610... which got returned over and over again by customers until they were finally recalled by the manufacturer, all while I was working at T-Mobile. The Nokia 2720 was not all that great either, and neither was AT&T's Nokia 6350 in a lot of cases. Nokia has made some real duds from time to time. Then again, everybody who hits a lot of home runs strikes out a lot, too, so it shouldn't be such a terrible reflection on a manufacturer to release a dud or two once in a while. At least I can admit that they do, laugh it off, and not take it personally.
117. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Lol!! I guess I should've said Lumia device.. The last Nokia device I had, actually still have, was one made back on 2001... Can't remember what it is, but it is bullet proof.. Funny, after 15 years I'm only on my 4th Nokia device, had 4 Samsung devices in between.. So, yes I have a very positive outlook on Nokia's quality..
I have to admit that as far as design goes my 1520 isn't designed as well as my 920, the 925, or the Icon.. The Icon is just Nokia at it's best.. But, given the size of the 1520, which seems normal, of not medium size to me now, it's probably best that Nokia toned down on the details a bit.. But, they could've done a little something more upscale with the back, like the accent on the 920... Boy, I love the 920.. I'm keeping that thing for ever..
119. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
Okay, but understand that the longer Nokia keeps going the with Lumia line, the more they are bound to eventually release a dud at some point. Every successful company does from time to time. It is inevitable. Now, I don't have much hands-on experience with Lumia's, but I have had to work on a pair of Nokia Lumia 820's in the past for one of my dad's PC setup customers... we were tasked with synchronizing their PC calendar and email with their new devices. The task was quite impossible: we were able to get support from Microsoft in setting up some of the links when all other reasonable attempts failed. The customer's PC had to first be linked to Microsoft's cloud services (Microsoft Hotmail connector), and then the phone had to be set up with what I would in the past have called a broken setup chain... Microsoft had to guide us through breaking the synchronization settings with Hotmail in order to wedge in a link to a different calendaring system since Hotmail connector was incompatible with the user's calendar system. Microsoft had to let us go, as they could not help us to complete the setup. The day ended with the customer wishing that they had kept their BlackBerry Curve which had already worked with all of their prior systems. Now, I would hope that calendaring would be compatible with Hotmail connector by now, but I never had to find out as the customer ended up having to buy a new Windows 8 PC and change the way they did business in order to adopt Microsoft's newest unified email and calendaring system in the cloud. To that guy, the Lumia 820's were duds out of the box, and he wanted his BB Curve, of all things, back.
So, while the hardware may not as yet be dud-ish on any of the Lumia's, I have less respect for Windows Phone in general. Until Microsoft can clean up the mess with all of the broken compatibilities, and not just force people onto the new cloud services for everything on the PIM end, I am simply not impressed. Yes, I do sort of like the clean look of the UI, the snappiness and the smoothness of it as well, but I have been looking at new phones... what happens if you give it a year or two? Could it get all corrupted like my HTC Dash did, and just reboot over and over again endlessly? I do like the look and build of the Nokia Lumia's so far, but that isn't enough to push me to buy one... it's still Windows. Sometimes that dud-ishness can come more from the software than from the hardware.
Now, I had a friend who bought a Lumia 710 back in the day. He let me play with it from time to time. He was very happy with it for about six months, until his friends told him that he should get rid of his "fake" iPhone because it wasn't a "real" iPhone... so, he sold it and bought an iPhone 4S instead. That wasn't dud-ishness, but it did bring a Windows Phone experience to an abrupt end, and it showed me that, where I live, WP just doesn't yet have the sticking power to unseat the iPhone.
8. livyatan (Posts: 867; Member since: 19 Jun 2013)
See how it looked for past five years:
So the prediction for this year says Android will grow by some 200 million units, iOS by some 30 million, and "the fastest growing OS" by some 14 million.
18. jroc74 (Posts: 6005; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
Kinda makes it hard to believe articles saying WP is the fastest growing mobile OS. I dont know what they base that off...Android has yet to really slow down. iOS has slowed more than Android and WP and BB well....
21. grahaman27 (Posts: 361; Member since: 05 Apr 2013)
Android has slowed down in the us. But I believe its momentary.
38. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
They base it off of percent of change, not market share.... School maybe?
52. livyatan (Posts: 867; Member since: 19 Jun 2013)
Yeah, school for you!
Learn the difference between relative and absolute growth.
Saying "fastest growing" implies absolute term unless specifying that it is relative
59. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Says you not market analysis... Deal with it!
66. DigitalJedi_X2 (banned) (Posts: 346; Member since: 30 Jan 2012)
Dude... Going from selling 7 million devices to 8.8 million is really nothing in the scale of things in the mobile market.
88. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Yet, WP technically has the highest rate of growth...... Ok.
92. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
Growth as measured by change in marketshare percentage over prior marketshare percentage... yes. No question about that right now. But does that translate into long-term marketshare victory? Not necessarily.
98. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Nobody ever said it did.. Who would connect the two?
107. jroc74 (Posts: 6005; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
I mean lets say if going from 100 users one year to 100,000 users the next year = fastest growing...does it really matter? Compared to the competition its really nothing.
In WP case compared to BB its a big deal....but its nothing compared to iOS and Android.
When the iPhone went to #1, fastest growing also meant big market share growth. Same for Android.
I just seen this about WP from last year:
"According to Strategy Analytics, Apple was second place, claiming 13.4% for their iOS platform. That’s a drop of 2.2% this time over last year. Microsoft's Windows Phone was up a massive 2% to 4.1%, and is the fastest growing smartphone platform when you appreciate for scale. Microsoft sold 10.2 million smartphones, compared to 3.7 million from Q3 2013, an increase of 178%.
Appreciating for scale is the name of the game here, as Apple also falls victim. The Cupertino company sold 33.8 million more units last quarter, but saw their market share fall two percent. Android shipments rose 74.8 million, while Blackberry dropped to 2.5 million smartphones shipped from 7.4 million last year."
Is that really a big deal when it isnt doing anything to put a big dent in marketshare? Like I said...compared to BB its a big deal...but not compared to iOS and Android. Even with iOS losing ground.
But hey ...this is Microsoft....the same company that claimed the Xbox One was the fastest selling console in Dec last year....even tho Sony sold 1 million PS4's in 24 hours. Seems like when it comes to MS lately certain goalposts are used to put their products in a better light.
39. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Do you think there will ever be a day when Android isn't on top? Or, do you think for the rest of your life Android will be on top?
41. AfterShock (Posts: 3698; Member since: 02 Nov 2012)
Potentially, with Google, I can see them out lasting my bio years.
They have embedded themselves too deeply into our world of tech to not be a major player for decades to come.
They are not just hoarding or throwing cash at a hole in the bottom of the boat, they are being active and not locking crap down so only a hand full get access to its benefit for all.
(Except wp in a couple cases)
60. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Fair enough... Good reply!... Can't argue with that..
51. protozeloz (Posts: 5396; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)
MS has ruled the PC market for quite some time
83. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
And yet, Microsoft has ruled through three different major operating system families: MS-DOS, Windows, and Windows NT. While Google might be the lead software company for a while yet, I seriously doubt that Android will still be their lead OS twenty years from now.
93. PBXtech (Posts: 1032; Member since: 21 Oct 2013)
Agree. I see Google developing Chrome a lot more, and even maybe a completely new operating system that translates better to computers as well.
In technology, nothing lasts forever. Some people just can't accept that though.
99. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
But, could you accept the idea of Android not being on top one day?? Honest question, that's all..
104. PBXtech (Posts: 1032; Member since: 21 Oct 2013)
Yes. As I said, nothing in technology lasts forever. Technology evolves and grows, and people's tastes change as time goes by. Right now Metro/Modern is becoming the new fad. One day that will pass as a new style emerges. Operating systems are the same way, they change and grow, and even get replaced as time progresses.
As for what will replace Android, no idea at this time. I lean towards believing it will be an OS that runs on phones and computers though. I don't see WP being that OS though, the tiles are not getting accepted like MS thought they would. If MS adapts a more user friendly and customizable UI, it could pass Android one day because it's a win for Enterprise and good for general consumers.
62. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
A bunch of looser arguing about smartphones,,,, and I'm one of them.. Pretty sad... LMFAO!!!
80. darkkjedii (Posts: 21289; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)
What gets me is that these arguments are moot at best. The best smartphone is the one that works best for its owners needs. I gave up on that this is best thing so long ago dude, it's like who even cares now. I use iOS android, and to a lesser extent wp8, in the form of my wife's deactivated HTC 8X. The comment section honestly sucks now, just fools wanting to agure with people from other countries, and what not...reallyyyyy?
77. TylerGrunter (Posts: 1522; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)
Just for the laughs, these where the predictions of IDC in 2010 for 2014:
BlackBerry OS 17.3%
Windows Mobile 9.8%
Bottom line, don´t trust them they have no idea what they predict!
94. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
Lol!! Yeah, nobody really knows how the market will shift, and what will be popular next...
This should really humble some people here!
100. AfterShock (Posts: 3698; Member since: 02 Nov 2012)
The last sentence just shows how you draw the ire you get.
118. rodneyej1 (Posts: 3576; Member since: 06 Jul 2013)
It's true.. Is that directed to you? Is that you?
111. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
Remember that this was before Elop's "burning platform" statements, and that Symbian was still sitting on almost 40% marketshare as late as 2010. If they had just allowed Symbian^3 to develop, and even gone on to Symbian^4 plans, they would have retained a lot of marketshare. By suddenly proclaiming the end of Symbian, the marketshare was thrust downward prematurely, and what would have been a slow bleed over a half-decade became a catastrophic hemorrhage that took less than a year.
Yes, it is impossible for analysts to predict every little twist and turn in the market... just as impossible as it is for the weatherman to predict exactly when there will be rain on your doorstep days in advance of the event (and actually, it is generally the big catastrophic events that are hardest to predict - violent behavior tends to be very chaotic). However, in the absense of extreme shake-ups, like Apple announcing the iPhone, like Google releasing the HTC G1, or like Elop's announcement ending Symbian and endorsing Windows Phone at Nokia, the mathematical methods behind forecasting are relatively sound. In marketing models, the use of Markov chains and matrix analysis are huge. In weather forecasting, the state vectors and differential equations of Lorenz are the dominating feature. Sure, anyone can complain that the analysts didn't see the future right, but unless you've seen the work involved in modeling the behavior, you can't really appreciate the mathematical purity of the process. They do get it very wrong at some times, but more often than not, they get it very right. Chaotic behavior screws with the linear dynamics of most models, so it is no surprise that market-shaking events destroy the accuracy of a lot of predictions during those times. During the longer periods of stability, though, the calculations hold quite precisely.
112. TylerGrunter (Posts: 1522; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)
You say that, but I have yet to see an accurate market prediction for a time longer than one year.
Within one year they are quite OK, over that they tend to use linear models that do not work.
Even knowing they don't work they keep up doing predictions 4 or 5 years ahead, which is not different than divination or astrology, in the sense that they know they are just fooling the custumers, yet they still do it.
113. domfonusr (Posts: 384; Member since: 17 Jan 2014)
You don't understand. Linear models are all we have, really. There is no such thing as a non-linear model. Linear equations and matrices only work in a world where interaction couplings are perturbative - for example, lets say that we are trying to characterize a system where the interaction is defined by the converging series x-x^2+x^3-x^4+x^5-... and so on, where x is the running coupling. As long as x is less than 1, the series is convergent, and we have a definite interaction constant... this is the state of linear systems. As soon as x = 1, we get a divergent series that cannot be constrained to one value: you get either 0 or 1, entirely depending on where you are in the series. You cannot simply say that the value of the series is 1/2 just because that is the average of the two possible values. This is what happens when you step out of linearity and into non-linearity. The rules of familiar mathematics all go out the window.
So, to say that analysts are using math that they know doesn't work is not a proper characterization. In reality, what they are doing is treating it as if they can forecast for the periods of time in question, hoping that nothing will upset the system into a non-linear mode during the forecast period. Sometimes they get lucky, and sometimes they don't, but as long as the real market-shakers are limited to once every five or ten years, then there is a better than 50/50 chance that their forecast has nominal value at any given time. Of course, their are variations from one forecast to another, just as there are different models (different constants used in various linear relationships, and sometimes different scaling behaviors as well), but the concepts are still rooted in the same overarching laws of mathematics, and all of these forecasts are subject to change upon the initiation of a non-linear event. There are very few known rules for non-linear processes, and no one really agrees upon which rules actually apply in any given situation, so naturally a forecast gets all screwed up when a chaotic event occurs. In the wireless industry, I would point to Elop's "burning platform" announcement as one such event... even the effects of the announcement of the iPhone or the development of Android were basically linear. For forecasting to improve, we are basically waiting on the theoretical mathematicians who work in the realm of chaos theory to produce consistent working rules for non-linear behavior - and this has been difficult for them, as no commonly applicable set of such rules has yet been agreed upon.
Now, before you complain at me that I haven't answered for my prior comments, I am just telling you how it is done, why it is the way it is now, and what is being done to try to fix it. Until a proper solution is found, forecasting of markets, weather, and other physics will generally continue to be what it already is now. They are doing the best that they can.
120. TylerGrunter (Posts: 1522; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)
I fully understand that, and for all that it´s worth, if that´s the best they can do: they can as well give up on predicting anything more than 2 years ahead.
That´s what I complain about, they know their predictions are crap on the long term, but they still do them.
They are normally good only for the first year and even then many times they have to adjust during the year. So, why do they try to predict 5 years ahea?
Pure marketing if you ask me, to show they can do something no one actually can. Bragging at its best...