Could Apple be moving to introducing products twice a year?
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First, Sculley thinks Apple is managed extremely well at the moment. That is hardly a surprise given Tim Cook’s background.
Second and most importantly, though, Cook might have plotted a groundbreaking change in just how aggressive Apple is. How? By moving to introducing products not once, but twice a year.
Now, this is just a suggestion, but a very curious one. Apple introducing the fourth generation iPad nearly six months after the launch of the original is unprecedented, and that’s the first sign of what could we have in the future.
And now, Horace Dediu of Asymco weighs in with 6 more interesting facts that could hint to Apple moving to semi-annual production.
First, comes the fact that Apple has ramped up the iPhone 5 launch quicker and wider than ever. The new iPhone is launching in an unparalleled number of countries, and with almost no delay for markets outside the U.S. This means that unlike previously, Apple won’t benefit from sales to new markets as the fiscal year goes.
Next, consumer anticipation to the company’s yearly cadence is drying up sales for a quarter or two prior to the launch of a new device.
Also, Hon Hai, a company you know by its Foxconn trade name, has moved locations closer to workers. And this allows it to rely less on migrant labor, and be steadier in terms of workforce.
Could all of this mean that Apple is indeed moving to a semi-annual product cycles? This could be a huge change for the industry, and the first big Tim Cook move. What are your thoughts on this, is it possible and what would be the ramifications?
source: TUAW, Asymco
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57 Comments
1. wendygarett posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:06 5 34
That means I can pay twice the fun from Apple!!! Yay!!!
Thumb me down and take my money Apple :D
17. blingblingthing posted on 10 Dec 2012, 06:03 3 1
Buying apple's stock is a great way to lose money since you seem interested.
49. metalpoet (unregistered) posted on 10 Dec 2012, 20:18 1 0
this just means that within 2 years and 4 different iPhone models later, they may finally have a product that can be called "innovative" ;)
54. ardent1 posted on 11 Dec 2012, 06:16 0 2
I was talking to an android fan boy in a casino just a couple days ago -- he was showing off his new Samsung phablet. I whipped my iPad Mini and showed off the apps that help make me money (I recently passed the $1,100 mark since buying the iPad Mini). Basically, Apple created an ecosystem that helps me make money in my hobby. These apps don't exist on android, btw.
In frustration, the fan boy was talking about how android had features for "years" that are now showing up on Apple devices or how Apple hasn't been innovative as android.
I responded, if fog lights are an important feature, then he probably won't buy an expensive sports card and instead buy a cheap Yugo with fog lights. His friend caught the joke. Then his friends started asking me about these money making apps so I took out my backup iPod Touch and showed them both apps for the iPhone/iTouch as well as the those for the iPad.
2. apexKBC posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:07 12 2
Chill Apple ur sales r nt goin 2 rise above Sammy.
20. noim1 posted on 10 Dec 2012, 07:02 8 0
Seems lik the Fruit Company is Feeling the HEAT !!!
38. Droid_X_Doug posted on 10 Dec 2012, 09:21 6 0
A 6-month release cycle could be counter-productive for Apple. As was mentioned, sales dry up the quarter before the expected new product release. With a 6-month release cycle, sales will dry up twice a year. The investment in R&D to sustain the twice-yearly release cycle whacks profits harder as well.
Sammy is out-competing Apple by using price cuts to keep sales going in later quarters. Consumers aren't stupid - they know a new and improved toy is on the way, why should they fork out full fare when the toy will be obsolete in 1, 2, or 3 months? But if the toy were to cost half (or less), that becomes compelling to enough buyers that sales of Sammy toys don't fall off the cliff in the 4th quarter of the product life cycle. And Sammy doesn't take as huge a hit to revenues and profits in the last quarter, because (in the U.S. at least) the carrier is still subsidizing the purchase.
Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Apple may not be as well-managed as some people think they are.
46. darkkjedii posted on 10 Dec 2012, 18:00 0 4
That's incredible that u know what apple should do better than they know. I guess u r a billion dollar company CEO. Oops my bad your a consumer.
47. Droid_X_Doug posted on 10 Dec 2012, 18:35 3 0
Don't like the message, eh? Instead of attacking the messenger, try rebutting the message. Kind of hard? Try harder.
53. darkkjedii posted on 11 Dec 2012, 05:55 0 2
Nope just wondering how u know what apple should do, better than they know...that's all. This is a huge tech company that has seen it all, and a consumer who doesn't like them has their roadmap figured out n one small rant on PA.
56. Droid_X_Doug posted on 11 Dec 2012, 06:57 1 0
Still attacking the messenger, though. How about pointing out a weakness in my analysis? Like maybe how 2 product cycles in a year is somehow better than a single cycle. Kind of how 2 + 2 = 3
All companies go through transitions (look at HP as an example of how not to do it). IMO, Apple is still transitioning to post-Steve. Going to 2 product cycles in a year is either brilliant or dumb/stupid (and a way to piss away Steve's legacy of a 3 to 5 year pipeline when he died even quicker). Since no one else seems to be jumping at the opportunity (least of all, Sammy), I tend to think it is ill-advised.
I wonder how the stock market will score the move to 2 product cycles per year?
55. darkkjedii posted on 11 Dec 2012, 06:30 0 1
Droid I remember when your criticism of apple used to b constructive, and full of intellect now it seems like u jus follow along with your apple bashing android pals on PA. Apple has the cash, capitol, assets, manufacturing partners and know how to do this, and most other companies do it but since apple is considering it all of a sudden it's a bad move. I think u should forward your rant to apples R&D department. Obviously they need your help.
57. Droid_X_Doug posted on 11 Dec 2012, 07:05 1 0
Who (that is successful in the phone market segment) is doing 2 product cycles for their flagship product in one year? Apple's challenge is how to avoid the fall-off in sales that occurs in the last quarter before refresh. One article stated the fall-off starts 2 quarters before refresh, which if true would be even more of an issue.
Having a big bag of cash doesn't protect a company from management mistakes.
50. metalpoet (unregistered) posted on 10 Dec 2012, 20:21 2 0
Oh poor poor darkkjedii.....tsk tsk tsk! Dont you know my man Droid_X_Doug is a Billion Dollar CEO! At least he is actually making sense!
3. AppleConspiracy posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:08 2 2
That would be a good idea for Apple, since Android is metastasing rapidly and annual pace would mean death for Apple in couple of seasons.
4. ahmed_ali_yossef2010 posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:11 10 0
it's a good idea to catch up with android but who would buy devices with the same shape and a little bit better with expensive prices
5. PowTheBowl posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:19 2 0
At least previous models will be cheaper, like the iPad 3 after the iPad 4 was announced.
6. AppleConspiracy posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:20 0 5
Well. normal people, who are not obsessed with changing shape of what is already proven good just for the change's sake. And BTW, it turns out that Apple products are usually less pricey than competition. In my country, for isnatnce, high end Android phones are far more expensive, wheter it's on contract or even on "black" market.
29. ahmed_ali_yossef2010 posted on 10 Dec 2012, 08:34 3 0
maybe this in your country in my country IPHONE5 cost 1350$ at the launch of it
42. RapidCat posted on 10 Dec 2012, 11:10 2 0
ahaha same here Ahmed
i can get S3 and Note2 with iphone price. and more feature.
when talk about app. i don't care, i can get everything i need from playstore.
44. AppleConspiracy posted on 10 Dec 2012, 14:40 1 2
iPhone in store: $1500
iPhone 2 yr most usual contract: $600
iPhone "black" market (new, unlocked): $700-800
Galaxy SIII in store: $1000
Galaxy SIII 2 yr most usual contract: $600
Galaxy SIII "black" market (new, unlocked): $700-800
So, the price isn't much of a deal, especially when you add the fact that buyers of high end models don't make a problem out of any price.
The reason is elsewhere. It's in ideology. First we all wanted iPhones, now we all want Sammys.
7. Thephonegeek posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:21 2 0
Or they won't be able to save their ass anyway.
8. MeoCao (unregistered) posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:30 2 1
From Maps and iPhone 5 design problems we can see that Apple is far from being "well managed" let alone "extremly well managed".
I read a report about good HTC Q4 results and iPhone 5 discount promotion capaign which paint a grim picture of Apple sales at the moment.
Last year Apple almost had a free ride when the only serious competition to iPhone was SS Note which was a new concept at the time. This year it's very different and Apple is feeling the pressure.
w/o innovation the obvious thing Apple can do is releasing its products more often and it may release more variants of iPhone and iPad. But we can see that Apple is losing script b-c it just can't compete with Android in choice and affordability.
10. TheLibertine posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:36 3 3
I would say they produce/use brilliant hardware, but comparing to Android Jelly Bean iOS 6 is mediocre at best and hinders them to really move forward. Instead, they concentrate on primitive specs-bumps and a few great designs, leading to stagnation.
11. redmd posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:39 1 0
very well said. also I wonder what the pattern be like. iPhone 5S in March then I iphone 6 in October. I bet the next move would be to open the ecosystem.
28. Valdomero posted on 10 Dec 2012, 08:06 0 0
Perhaps an iPhone and 6 months later an iPad, or like you said, 2 iPhones the same year, surprisingly people will buy that stuff.
I hope people are smart enough not to buy a recently released iPhone just to get the latest device. wait a couple months, read reviews, wait for any news about a new release and then make the correct choice, don't be compulsive.
9. bootroot posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:36 12 1
Twice a year with twice less innovation! Sure it's possible!
Iphone 5s
Iphone 5s turbo (with speedier home button)
Iphone 5s turbo sport (with vents for heat dissipation)
Apple need to move his A// o people will grow tired...
18. blingblingthing posted on 10 Dec 2012, 06:05 2 0
Getting a speedier Iphone with that same lousy OS changes nothing Apple..
26. darkkjedii posted on 10 Dec 2012, 07:39 1 1
Some of these comments r intelligent, but yours was plain corny...try again
37. TROLL posted on 10 Dec 2012, 09:08 0 0
So why don't you back his post, instead of saying your this and that!
Speak wisely, and with hard facts!
™®©
14. drnggaj33 posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:45 1 0
they'll be making the same phone twice a yr not just once a yr idgaf ......i luv my android my hardwear is still better this ip5 or ip4s and my samsung nexus is a yr old already ....apple needs to do btter with its ios but that means them copy google aka android so i really dont care how apple stuff comes out
15. rickywinataa posted on 10 Dec 2012, 05:48 1 0
this is a great idea if they can keep up with the new hardware and software demand.
however, we must see how apple distributes their products globally, this is something that they must learn from htc and samsung because for example, almost every country globally received sgs3 soon after they sold the phone in europe.
while for apple, the distributions are just all messed up with countries like russia, china and south korea all of them are big and rich countries with a great number of population just received iPhone 5 for 3 days now.
now imagine an apple user in russia or south korea, wanting to buy iPhone 5S, he / she will get the phone 3 months after the launch date in US and after he / she bought it, in 3 months that phone will be a previous gen phone, that's rather unacceptable
19. dragonscourgex posted on 10 Dec 2012, 06:46 1 0
I think Apple needs to work on their UI. Is has always been boring since the first iPhone, for me. I find Android and Windows puts a smacking on iOS on the UI. But, what can Apple do to change up their UI, they have complain and sue so many people to "protect" their UI that most companies have already come up with different UI.
21. noim1 posted on 10 Dec 2012, 07:07 1 0
And thanks to that there is more innovation ...and new it Tit For Tat time !!
22. Bozzor posted on 10 Dec 2012, 07:26 0 0
This will actually make the global supply chain smoother eventually, but more stressed initially.
24. TROLL posted on 10 Dec 2012, 07:32 3 0
They rather should stick to 1 product every 3 years, buying Apple products are choice less, cause you only get to choose 1 midrange product with a high end price, so what point is there buying Apple?
27. darkkjedii posted on 10 Dec 2012, 07:40 0 3
Troll that's your weakest post yet. Go back to the drawing board dude
34. No_Nonsense posted on 10 Dec 2012, 08:50 0 2
You need to see his attempts at trolling on WP articles. Perhaps chaoticrazor would give you a better idea.
41. darkkjedii posted on 10 Dec 2012, 11:06 0 0
Troll sucks sometimes, and other time he's rite on point. All and all I don't take him serious.
52. TROLL posted on 10 Dec 2012, 22:10 0 0
You wasn't that smart to understand what it was, and I was referring!
25. techloverNYC posted on 10 Dec 2012, 07:36 1 0
This will kill apple. One reason many ppl like apple is bcuz it only releases one product of its kind per year. When ppl buy apple product they don't have to worry about getting outdated as fast as other product. For example if I buy an iphone 5 when it releases I dnt have to worry about the iphone 6 or 5s for about another year. Android will be out dated as fast another company release its new flagship phone. If apple products life cycle is shorten then they really cant justify their premium price tags.
32. Valdomero posted on 10 Dec 2012, 08:42 0 0
That's what it's killing them actually, releasing a product once a year means they only get a huuge amount of money once a year, the subsequent months are some profit they get from their sales since iFans will buy their product no matter what, the thing is, this move they're making might kill them as well.
Selling the same devices with mini minor upgrades twice a year will render the people tired of the same crap, the only difference instead of one crap a year, it will be two craps a year.
However, Androids, they have almost the same life cycle, the only difference in Android is that several companies are releasing their respective low-range, mid-range and flagship phones almost at the same time that is overwhelming for customers, but that's the beauty of competition and diversity, PEOPLE CAN CHOOSE. Personally, I'll stick with the Galaxy S series for now (waiting for S4 yaay!!).
30. llooppss posted on 10 Dec 2012, 08:37 0 0
Where have you seen some kind of fact that Apple plan twice-a-year circle???
Maybe earlier iPad release had other purpose than to introduce twice A year circle???
This uh how crappy incorrect rumors start...
From how it looks, new iPad (iPad 4) is DID NOT start a new circle, it is just an update of existing circle.
The new iPad is still a new iPad (no point clarifing if first "new iPad" is 4th or 3rd).
Fact to suggest it = LIGHTNING CONNECTOR.
Jesus, this rumor you, PhoneArena, start speaks of your credibility in the industry..
31. llooppss posted on 10 Dec 2012, 08:41 0 0
There Are many other facts (like how they position new iPad in market) that suggest mine theory, but is there any facts to suggest yours rumors???
39. darkkjedii posted on 10 Dec 2012, 09:21 0 1
Smart move by apple. The tech landscape is changing, and apple isn't changing fast enough. Tim cook isn't as stubborn as SJ. This could b big for apple.
40. bubbadoes posted on 10 Dec 2012, 09:38 1 1
looks like a lot of "S" models to come from out Apple
43. Aeires (unregistered) posted on 10 Dec 2012, 14:26 0 0
More released products each year will equate to less prestige for their devices.
45. downphoenix posted on 10 Dec 2012, 15:11 0 0
The every 6 months thing would make sense if there was more differentiation with the skus. Take the Ipads for instance, the Ipad Mini and Ipad regular both can sell once a year, but can stagger the releases 6 months apart. Apple should do same for Iphone IF they are going to utilize a different sized sku. Maybe a 4.8 or 5 inch model to complement the 4in sku.
48. MC1123 posted on 10 Dec 2012, 18:53 0 0
even they will really release 2 device but the UI of iOS is still the same, its not worth to buy..peopel want to explore and personalize things..but since people who buy iDevices are those people who are on the go....
but apple really need to bring iProducts to more market and with cheaper price tag even though this is just wishful thinking!
