Carrier coverage claims: What does covering “X-percentage” of Americans really mean?
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When it comes to wireless service, there is a difference between coverage, and well, coverage. If there is any perceived weak point in the US wireless infrastructure, it could be argued that it is actual physical coverage, the ability to pick-up a carrier signal anywhere, anytime.
The United States is a large country, and believe it or not, the vast majority of the land mass is not developed. That makes providing any type of service that requires some type of infrastructure, wired or wireless, is a daunting task. That is why providers use carefully parsed marketing language like “service to over 95% of Americans,” versus claiming, “We cover 95% of the country.”
The physical footprint is the next coverage battleground
Given the incumbent nature of AT&T’s and Verizon’s networks, going back to the original A-Side and B-Side 800MHz systems that were first built decades ago, it is easy to accept claims of having 97% or 99% of Americans covered by their networks. After all, some of that infrastructure pre-dates the first Motorola prototypes of the 1970s.
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Our service covers 50% of Americans! Sounds good until you see the map right? (image from Business Insider)
This is where the coverage argument between carriers, and fans of carriers comes into play, and it also shows how mundane the points are becoming. We are rapidly approaching a point where claiming to cover a percentage of the population does not mean anything. Half the population of the United States lives in less than 150 counties out of more than 3,000.
It will take time to reduce the gaps
Confronting that reality, it is easy to see why the future will be less about who is covered, but rather where they are covered. This is where AT&T and Verizon currently have the advantage. The original 800MHz network licenses are still in use to this day, and have comparable coverage and building penetration propagation as the 700MHz block that was auctioned off in 2008.
That is why the 600MHz spectrum auctions to be held next year are so important to carriers like T-Mobile and Sprint. It also explains why Sprint opted out of the recent AWS-3 spectrum auction, keeping its acorns for 2016. In theory, winners of these licenses will be able to cover a geographically wider space compared to the higher-frequencies (not accounting for power levels or other RF factors).
Even with the spectrum auction next year, it will be several years before any of the winning providers are able to build out commercial service. The same holds true for the recently completed AWS-3 auction. Existing license holders have to vacate the spectrum.
Now (left) and "soon" (right). T-Mobile's current LTE service already covers about 85% of the population. Look at the required build out to begin closing on that final 15%.
The maps will still look largely the same – for now
Even as more and more spectrum is allocated to mobile providers to enable connectivity on an even more massive scale, it is a safe bet that large swaths of a carrier’s coverage map will remain largely unchanged, at least for the foreseeable future.
However, as the communication standards advance, the demands of a completely connected world will increase. Soon everything from our homes, automated appliances and equipment, cars, and more, will need a signal. We may yet see a map that is completely covered, connecting everything, everywhere, but for now, it's all percentages.
references: Business Insider and Deutsche Telekom (PDF)
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