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Apple closes at $450; blame the analysts?

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Apple closes at $450; blame the analysts?
Ever since Apple traded at $550, we pointed out the deteriorating technical condition of the stock (heck, we also pointed out the bullish "Island Reversal" on RIM $2 to $3 dollars lower), did Wall Street analysts listen? No! That is because they are trained in fundamental analysis which, as we pointed out before, requires them to waste time on researching how many Apple iPhones Apple will sell in a given quarter, guess what the margin will be, and estimate earnings . A Technical Analyst uses charts and once Apple closed under both the 50 and 200 day moving average as we showed you, it was lights out for the stock.

Rating the Apple analysts

Rating the Apple analysts

But some Wall Street analysts made some decent forecasts. These are not the guys who have a $1111 target on the stock, and Forbes figured out who should get kudos in the Wall Street community. Here's the rub though, even though these guys might have called part of the earnings release correct, we really didn't see any of them tell clients to dump the stock in advance of this decline, which actually started on September 21st which was the day the Apple iPhone 5 launched. On that day, Apple's shares peaked at $705. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news anyone?

According to Forbes, Raymond James' Tavis McCourt forecast the $13.81 EPS number precisely. Did he tell clients to sell early? No. The best overall performance came from an analyst well known to PhoneArena readers, Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu. According to Forbes' chart, Wu was off only by only .55% in predicting Apple's revenue for its fiscal first quarter, and was off by 3.90% in earnings. Gene Munster finished tenth, off by 2.51% and 5.43% respectively. Who finished last? Nicolae Mihalache of Traderhood whose revenue forecast was off by 20.13% and missed earnings by 15.82%

But here is the fallacy about the whole thing. As we pointed out, an analyst can forecast Apple's earnings and revenue down to the exact cent. If he did not get his clients out of the stock prior to the drop, what good is the forecast? Traders and investors profit from stock movement. Anything else is like a carnival game where the "carny" guesses your weight.

source: Fortune

A real bearish chart-$100 points ago

A real bearish chart-$100 points ago


55 Comments
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posted on 25 Jan 2013, 00:07 15

1. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5993; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)


I am not sure of your point, Alan. The share price is off of the highs because investors don't believe that Apple can perform the magic they have been performing. They haven't been able to crack the China smartphone market. They haven't updated their stale 2007 iOS UI. They haven't been able to open new markets (video, for example). The prospect for future earnings at present does not justify a $700 (let alone a $1,000) per share price.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 00:41 2

11. Alan01 (Posts: 388; Member since: 21 Mar 2012)


The point is that a) Technical Analysis is superior to fundamental analysis
b) even if analysts called the numbers right, they called the stock wrong
c) the chart had made a great call to sell at $550

Alan F.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 00:50

13. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5993; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)


It kind of depends on one's perspective. There are examples where technical analysis has failed. My understanding of the charge given to the analysts was to predict where Apple's performance was going to be ahead of the call. A simple comparison of Apple's projected performance to what they turned in a year ago should have queued the sell orders.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 01:06

14. Topcat488 (Posts: 1396; Member since: 29 Sep 2012)


You'll find in the end that most of these Tech Analysis, that show up here, are maybe because they couldn't make it on the $Million Dollar Poker circuit$...

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 05:33 4

19. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


Oh really Alan, really I made the call at the wave 5 701 top long ago go figure. What kind of analyst lets a stock fall 150 dollars a share, and then say I got it right. Bull crap other were way ahead of him and it was technical's that called it. Smart traders were selling when it crossed the 50 day simple moving average.

Elliot waver chart followers knew it and PA seemed to poke fun at one Elliot wave prediction, and ever since then I have posted the real deal through technical analysis from Pivot Points, and Elliot Waves.

Right now the 1.382 correction to the down side is$446.00. Also the Daily Pivot Point S2 meaning second support level is also $446.00. Right around here is where some will try to buy, but if it fails this level it could make $336.00 the next major support level.
Apple failing $585.00 was the 1st sign of real trouble, because I think that at the time was the 50 day "SMA" simple moving Average. That means that Apple was trading under the 50 day SMA for the 1st consecutive time in over a year since a major pull back only last year!

My past post:
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Look-out-below-Apple-is-down-55-after-hours-as-earnings-disappoint_id39035/comments

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 06:14 3

22. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


http://www.phonearena.com/news/Analyst-Apple-iPhone-5-game-over_id37743/comments

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Apple-reports-record-profits-sells-47-million-Apple-iPhones-in-fiscal-first-quarter_id39029/comments

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Apples-stock-now-in-bear-territory-after-20-drop-from-peak-was-Elliott-Wave-correct_id36368/comments

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 06:55 2

23. Alan01 (Posts: 388; Member since: 21 Mar 2012)


Spoken like a true Elliotiician. Too many conditions after the fact...why did Ralphie throw in extensions, to cover mistakes of course. Rules of alternations, etc.

Hey,I'm not saying that EWave isn't useful, but give me the Turtles anytime.

The truth is the best traders are right 3 in 10 times, but stay in a trade long enough when right and short enough when wrong to make big profits

Alan F.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 07:52 4

27. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


After the fact Alan....wake up and smell the coffee....I posted the links that showed what I said before the facts posted right here on PA.

I bet you were the one that thumbed me down as well. ROFL

There are a few that can attest to this Jroc/Slammer as well took a little heat for agreeing with my thoughts in the past.

I posted that Apple was in a B wave down when people here said buy, and I posted that the a wave would take us up into Christmas and then C wave would let loose in the 1st quarter and panic selling would happen. Don't hate it is here with links posted above ok!

I would think a true journalist would investigate the validity of the post and then speak rather than to make lame remarks as you have and then thumb down ROFL. If you didn't thumbs down I apologize ahead of time ROFL it doesn't matter to me because I was right period regardless of the thumbs.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 07:59 3

28. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


Also just to let you know Al;n the 50 sma is a sell signal that many analyst use to determine to sell or not and when Apple failed to make it over $594.00 the 50 day sma it was a sell signal confirmation!

You may investigate this as well for its accuracy. The 200 day sma was the omen of doom for that stock....no Elliot wave is necessary if you really know how to read a chart.

Elliot waves just use mat to predict higher or lower targets regardless of fundamentals. Fundamentals are just core prophetic reasons to continue or bail out of a position!

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 11:58

39. Alan01 (Posts: 388; Member since: 21 Mar 2012)


Just to let you know that I have 30 years experience on Wall Street, so I do know what I am talking about...and while the 200ma break was ok, the 200 and the 50 was necessary....look at RIM, by the way, it has a spectacularly bullish chart regardless of EWave...oh, by the way, check out who wrote the option column in Barron's on December 21 1998

PS: I never thumbed anyone down

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 12:26 1

41. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


I am glad to hear this, and I am not trying to disrespect you but you were wrong.Thirty years doing what....to be frank I know it wasn't charting. I don't mean to undermine your working on Wall street or disrespect you Alan but your charting is wrong and way off. Also just because you worked on the street doesn't mean that you were trading stocks based on technical's.

The fact is that 550 was a top that would not have been a sell signal unless you were shorting or selling from lower lows. You can see that Apple caught support at 505-515 and went as high as 558.00 if you were really trading 505-515 would be the sell line not $550.00.

Take my chart or any Apple chart on the daily to a chart analyst and they will agree with me. Writing options and charting has nothing to do with charting.

As I mentioned earlier Apples fail has every thing to do with technical's and E waves. You may not agree or understand the wave theory, but the fact that Apple fell according to the E wave predictions that I made way ahead of time would at least merit a check in its validity. Not only that it acted just like I said it would act, and failed exactly when I said it would fail....the 1st quarter.

I use Elliot wave count, Pivot Points, and moving Averages to track stock price action, as well as P/E ratio and fundamentals like buying trends of the product used. Technical highs and lows with Eliot waves make targets easy to point out high or low.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 16:05 1

44. Alan01 (Posts: 388; Member since: 21 Mar 2012)


Like hell you're not...Elliot died peniless BTW. This is not the forum for this, but let's just say that I know for a fact that my charting capabilities are way superior to yours

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 17:24 1

45. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


Since you feel I am trying to disrespect you when I am not I will apologize for making that you feel that way. Again Elliot wave theory is not the only way that I chart a stock, and if you think that you chart far superior to me then so be it.

I will leave it at the fact that I posted my chart, and you may send it and my analysis any where to be critiqued . I have the utmost respect for you, but it is my opinion that your chart analysis is flawed.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 12:36 1

42. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


When you say that the 200 break was ok and the 200, and 50 was necessary I don't follow where you are going. In the stock market breaking the 50 sma is not good. Staying under the 50 day SMA as it did at $558.00 was not good at all. It was a short opportunity for all that are wise and they all did short it as well.

Failing the 200 day sma is very bad no way near good.

Apple today is under 446 and failing this is not good for this stock period. Look at the monthly chart and see the doom unfolding in this stock. When Windows tablets take off it will get worse in my opinion

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 08:10 2

32. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


In post 11 you referenced technical's, and Elliot Waves are technical's based on retrace and projections of highs and lows. Nothing is absolute but my data shows, and proves that it is better to know them, and to use them with Pivot Points, and moving averages rather than to guess and sell at $550.00 like you suggested that the charts said.

The 550 was technically way to low to sell when the 50sma broke at 594.00. ROFL

You just need to learn to read a chart better than you do, and I challenge you to a reading vs me on any stock that you choose.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 08:21 2

33. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


Elliot waves have extensions to lead a trader to where the next possible high may extend to when a stock moves higher. It is not a correction of a mistake rofl

Example would be $446.00 is the Elliot Wave 1.382% retrace possible lower target for Apples high of $701.00.

People buy at the whole number say like $450.00 rather than $446.00 so $450.00 is usually where people will buy, but that does not mean that the $466.00 Elliot wave target is invalid.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 07:38 2

25. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


Apple made a sell signal when it fell under $638 the April-May high. The true sell signal kicked off when apple made a wave 5 top at $701.00 technically based on the $638.00 wave 3 top.

That said when Apple crossed the 50 day "SMA" simple moving average that was the time to sell. Mutual funds may hold to the 89sma, but the 50 sma is a selling trigger. 550 was already too late and the analyst that saw that either sold or was no true analyst at all!

Apple tried to climb out of that gap down to $450.00 how ever at $465.00 the shorts piled back in and any one buying the 450 low got creamed.

Based on the monthly chart target Apple could now retrace to $336.00 as I posted earlier. Based on the monthly chart Apple is headed lower. Based on the daily chart apple is broke, and it broke when it crossed over the 200sma. When it fails the 200sma all funds will be out of that stock and that has already happened.

You need a lot of help in reading a stock chart technical's Alan.
No one says it but chart wise Apple is in a head and shoulders pattern that broke the neckline. The right shoulder top being $594.00 where big money really dumped this thing!

I challenge any one here to question my thoughts, and also you probably will only have heard about the Head and shoulders here from me. I have not heard this mentioned any where yet, and can assure you it is an accurate statement.

http://screencast.com/t/BGZiXziNuyP

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 07:43 2

26. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


http://screencast.com/t/FqznWm5Q this is a current Apple chart with the circle on the right shoulder of the possible head and shoulders that I spoke of.

The red fib retrace shows possible lower targets as well.
these are my professional charts by the way.

For the person that thumbed me down any analyst that charts will tell you I am right. My predictions were listed and all were correct based on this chart....

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 08:03 2

29. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


Nothing goes down or up for ever so $446.00 is an area that Apple could possibly bounce. Will it who knows how can you tell when to buy, when there is an exhaustion sell candle known as a reversal hammer, and big buy volume spikes supporting the reversal candle!

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 11:25

37. Reluctant_Human (Posts: 890; Member since: 28 Jun 2012)


It's well known that brokers and analysts manipulate stock prices to increase their profits. I know more than one broker that has openly admitted this to me. If they manipulate the stock to go down then they can buy more shares before the next apple announcement and sell it high.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 11:41 1

38. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


This can be done by rumors and shorting, as well as options. However; this stock made a wave 5 top on fading sales which many like me realized when people like my niece took her iPhone 5 back because it was just like the iPhone 4s but only longer.

She and many others saw the Galaxy S3 and because of a failed iPhone 5 design Apple is fading into the sunset. Samsung was gaining market share in China and Europe, and for the 1st time in 2012 Apple lost market share to Samsung in Asian countries.

This along with the 700.00 wave 5 top told me a big reversal was in the works in October going into November! I posted about it here to all that would listen when articles were posted.

This stock is not being manipulated it is correcting from a pump and dump high bought on by lack of sales for a failing product line.

Apple is on the wrong path making cheaper iPhone's is not the answer. They need a redesign, and to come up with the next big thing. Now they are following Androids lead with their product line.

Example would be the drop down menu, and the attempt at a larger screen that flopped.

posted on 27 Jan 2013, 11:49

50. Friendlysky (Posts: 54; Member since: 04 Jul 2012)


Qwik s Trick As I said before apple is not a creative company they are a follow. The reason that many consumer who are buying Apple because the brand name is under American brands and that connect to American accessory influence that is why they buying it. Secondly, Apple couldn't made those Iphone by themself without copy some of the technolog from others player. Tell me one thing why apple asking Samsung to build those chip for them instead on their own? and American is the advance Technology Country in the world and could be build in the US also plus creating more jobs for our American people instead builting in Asia and buy Sammy technology. Four thing apple know Sammy has experience with many Technology of builting screen and others plus advance over others Tech Company out there. With my thought why is apple sue sammy because there is two things as afact. 1. Afraid sammy take a market share and embarrasement to American company and politic got to do with it too. 2. Sammy didn't want to pay enough money on certain patents because sammy know that Apple stolen this pattan from others or paid them with a little fee. That is why apple goes around the world trying to file a lawsuit every countries to stop sammy. What apple does is shot themself in the foot.

posted on 28 Jan 2013, 05:10

52. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


What trick would that be friendly. Everything I posted is a fact substantiated with charts to prove it . I also posted past links that attest to every thing that I said before hand that ended up becoming true.

If any one doubts my ability to chart stocks just ask me about a stocks direction, and I will tell you its future. I won't wait until it falls $150.00 a share and then say that I called it right. I bet I would be with in a dollar of my target. I called the $446.00 target just the other day before it happened.

Simple math works if you know the formula.

posted on 10 Feb 2013, 19:57

53. Friendlysky (Posts: 54; Member since: 04 Jul 2012)


SWIKSTRIKE
Wells that is my instint and I see apple will not be able to compete with their rival again because they do not have latest tech to compete with Sammy and Nokia any further. And they continuing to loose young adult conusmer in 18-35 ages. Those age is turning to Android and Window phone. Check for the latest news they want to launch a new I6 with 5'' that does sound like no creative and just a follow it is? Keep in mind this a technology products or others,if you want to be a leader you must be different and better not a follow.

posted on 11 Feb 2013, 10:34

54. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


This is too true, but if you check other technology you could see this coming with the launch of the Galaxy S3.
Windows has almost caught up tech wise as well.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 01:14 2

16. anywherehome (Posts: 971; Member since: 13 Dec 2011)


exactly:
1) just an iConboard
2) Android overwhelmed with its superiority over inferiority of iOS
3) if there is something new in SW (Apple maps), its disaster
4) more important is SW over HW and Apple is completely inferior:
goo [dot] gl/blv5L

this I saw a few years ago and forecasted market share decline....soon market share decline of Apple's tablets=just an iConboard......
Apple is new Nokia.....still without innovations

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 08:08

31. -box- (Posts: 3991; Member since: 04 Jan 2012)


I concur. Apple's shares should be well under $100. This multi-hundred dollar pricing is an engorged bubble that needs to be burst.

Sell, sell, sell.

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 08:39

35. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1182; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)


You are crazy if you think Apple is going to $100.00. It is possible but highly unlikely unless they have a horrible product like which they don't

However if their phones don't sell they can end up way lower like rim and Nokia, but I don't see that happening just yet!

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 17:42

46. jroc74 (Posts: 6015; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


Hey man....dont rain on my fantasy!!! lol.

I wanna get back in if it gets that low. I probably should look to Nokia or RIM. Samsung stock is crazy high.

I wonder why there are no articles about Samsung stock?

posted on 25 Jan 2013, 12:52

43. Droiddoes (unregistered)


The point is "HA F*CKING HA APPLE, YOU SH*T COMPANY! BURN BABY BUUUURN!"

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