Android may be 70% of smartphone shipments in 2013, Windows Phone up 150%
0. phoneArena 06 Dec 2012, 20:50 posted on
After quite a few recent projections by analysts that didn't seem to be based on much more than common knowledge, this is one bit of analysis that we think could be somewhat valuable. Digitimes Research, a firm that often uses inside knowledge of the actual supply chains for info, has said that Android may be 70% of smartphone shipments in 2013, and Windows Phone could be up 150% over its shipments from this past year...
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1. PhenomFaz (Posts: 1235; Member since: 26 Sep 2012)
I am an android fan but give it 5 years and Windoes/WP will have become the most dominant OS in the industry as the OS on mobile and desktop/laptops could become the same. Moreover the future lies in complete ecosystems and services offered in the ecosystem.
MS will be the humber one choice because given a choice between an MS ecosystem vs an Apple ecosystem MS takes the cake because of its sheer market presence.
Android cant compete with the two in long term in spite of pulling off a smart move like making the OS on tabs and smartphones the same is because they will lack presence in the power segment which are mainstream computers like desktops/laptops.
2. jroc74 (Posts: 5996; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
Android has already been competing with them both long term. Android started in 2008. Its almost 2013.
In 5 years WP could be a major player. Ppl have to want to use it tho. Ppl didnt leave Win Mo for Android for nothing. For ppl to switch from Android to WP they have to have a reason. Its gonna be hard for WP as Android keeps getting better.
The only way Win 8 on phones will be dominate is if many ppl use Win 8 desktops. It will become dominate on phones by default then.
5. Nadr1212 (Posts: 741; Member since: 22 Sep 2012)
YEA WINDOWS, MY PLATFORM!!!!!!!
8. Nadr1212 (Posts: 741; Member since: 22 Sep 2012)
0.2% left in the market share's used by ALL THOSE OTHER MINOR PLATFORMS!!!!
18. MeoCao (unregistered)
You say once WP and Windows converge ppl will use WP by default? User experiences on PC and phones are very different.
And guess what, next year Andoid and Chome OS will be unified and Android will expand to PC. Can we argue that ppl will use Android on PC by default?
20. eisenbricher (Posts: 973; Member since: 09 Aug 2012)
Who the hell uses Chrome OS? Geeks??
Tell me one good reason that makes Chrome+Android better than WP+W.
BTW WP sales up by 150% (Not even taking the impact of 920 in consideration) :p :P
27. MeoCao (unregistered)
I never say that Chrome+Android is better than WP+W.
I think for now Android is way better for mobile devices and Windows still rules PC.
I said about Chrome just to expose jroc74 false logic.
But in a few years I do think Android can challenge for low end PC.
41. jroc74 (Posts: 5996; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
I meant it like how sometimes, or it used to be that iOS stats included the iPad. Sometimes it was seperate sometimes it was all lumped in together.
30. PhenomFaz (Posts: 1235; Member since: 26 Sep 2012)
you're right android has held its own. But before WP8/Win 8 MS wasnt really trying for complete cross-platform integration. Win 7 is a great product for PC/laptops...and nothin else. Win 7.45 was the guinea pig for WP8 launch.
What I am saying is it may not happen i Win 8 but by Win 9 or Win 10 the platform on your smartphone/tabs will be the same as on your desktop/laptop. That ecosystem will give complete control and since MS already dominates in the PC/laptop segment it will become all but a natural choice for people having Win pc to opt for mobile devices running Windows as well and adoption rate wont be a problem as MS can pull iff marketing stunts and succeed by its existing customer base.
Before WP8/Win8 MS wasnt even making a decent effort in grabbing tabs/smartphone markets
33. MeoCao (unregistered)
By the time PC and mobile OSes converge Android will be hugely poweful so I don't see why Windows will win. I'm not sure MS will still be in mobile business considering the size of subsidy MS is paying to keep its mobile business alive.
It's still not clear how disparity in power consumption between mobile and PC will be resolved and a lot of things can change.
But If I have to bet my house I will place it on creative and effective Google and not stagnant, slow and monopolistic MS.
39. PhenomFaz (Posts: 1235; Member since: 26 Sep 2012)
buddy as a company I admire Google the most but saying that MS is slow and stagnant would be a huge understatment. If it were not for MS we actually wouldnt exactly be familiar with computers. The problem with MS is not in its skill set or innovative capabilities...its in their sense of direction which is somewhat inflexible but now they have started to make amends.
Take the Asus Padfone 2 for instance. the only difference in screens of phone and tabs is the UI...the source code is the same. MS has the capability to make one OS for all its devices phone, tab and power device (pc/laptop). Once it does that adoption in corporates and homes are going to be unanimous.
As a matter of fact its Google's idea to do this first and they have dont it in their tabs and phones but I still dont see their OS as being fit for a power user.
MS will have one OS across devices with changes in UI only and that will be the filtering factor for an app to recognize and run on thee device. Lets say you want to run crysis5 (by that time) on your pc...you'll be able to have it on your phone but not run it but as soon as you coonect your phone to a large screen peripheral device or your pc at taht time it will run the game effortlessly.
Convergance of OS Ios natural progression towards which Apple and MS are working. Apple will have its loyal users and MS will have majority but in that time frame how will android fit in as it will only appeal to tab/phone users and not the power user.
My point is Android hqas to bring aboout a revolution and not just updates to secure its future because at that time MS and Apple will be providing more bang for your buck
40. MeoCao (unregistered)
"If it were not for MS we actually wouldnt exactly be familiar with computers."
You know what? The Chinese Communist party makes the same claim: Without the Party there would be no modern China. So the Chinese have to be grateful to the Party. The North Korean can hear the same argument from their rulers.
In fact in all closed ecosystem the dominant players always demand "gratitude" from the subjects. They don't mention that they eliminated all other options to their own domination so people simply have no choice.
But if you look a little bit more carefully you can see that things can be much better if there's no monopoly in the first place.
I wanted MS to be successful and offer a viable choice to Android and iOS but I'm very dissapointed. WP8 is a huge flop and MS can't appeal to OEMs to release WP8 handsets.
I don't believe in MS anymore.
44. PhenomFaz (Posts: 1235; Member since: 26 Sep 2012)
MS isnt demanding anything from anyone dude!
I am with Windows coz I choose to be. My friend works on linux exclusively. there are a ton of options out there and you can choose anything...people choose MS coz they want to.
I agree with your closed ecosystem argumennt but MS isnt bllying anyone by lawsuits, patent suits or legal battles. and in theoryevery company out there even Google would want to eliminate all competition and be the lone player catering to customer demands...its every company's dream
And if MS was so selfish as you claim thenn they wouldnt have bailed out Apple in 1997 when Apple was going bankrupt by offering them $150 million dollars!
All tech companies are credible in some form and antagonistic in the other...and MS may have done some bad but MS has been slow and steady but always innovative and deserves much more credit than most of the noobs out there give it!
And WP8 is a flop??? In what universe mate??!!!
oh yeah MS aint pushin other manufacturers for WP devices coz its gonna bring its own hardware and if their phones are the quality of their tabs then we can look forward to one awesome MS Windows Phone!
7. meowcenary (Posts: 187; Member since: 13 Apr 2012)
"I am an android fan but give it 5 years and Windoes/WP will have become the most dominant OS in the industry as the OS on mobile and desktop/laptops could become the same.", you are aware that windows is used on a enterprise level and by home users? Googles free or low cost applications are affecting MS's bottom line. If not google there are a slew of MS alternative like open office, audacity In this economy and especially business and home users today, it does not justify MS's cost. MS's sheer market presence is shrinking, they are becoming like IBM.
21. eisenbricher (Posts: 973; Member since: 09 Aug 2012)
You are taking this too far. WIndows won't ever die. There is just no other option when it comes to many tasks. There is a large user bast that relies on MS and its products.
People will get bored of android soon.
31. OHaZZaR (Posts: 131; Member since: 19 Aug 2011)
If android were the same android it was 2 years ago, or even 1 year ago, then yeah people will get bored, but the difference between 4.0 and 4.1 is much larger than windows phone 7 and 8, android is innovating like no other company can dream of. I can't imagine a world that reacts without hype for the launch of a new GALAXY S or a Note device, but it's pretty obvious that a fraction of those people care about the newest lumia. Even the iPhone creates more buzz. Microsoft dominates the desktop department, but even that market is going to be shadowed by the smartphone market in a few years, and I don't see microsoft being a big part of it. Heck it's gonna be far behind 2nd place.
36. bloodline (Posts: 706; Member since: 01 Dec 2011)
my prediction is that in years to come android will be everywhere, desktop to phones to washing machines to cars.
Its progression is like no other, rise the droid.
I also predict it will become self aware august 29th, judgement day
45. eisenbricher (Posts: 973; Member since: 09 Aug 2012)
I predict that you will receive biggest fanboy reward.
10. chethan316 (Posts: 28; Member since: 07 Nov 2010)
Presuming you're looking at the unification of mobile OSes and desktop OSes, Android would still have the cake. If you don't know, Google has its own ecosystem now (Google Music, Google Drive you name it). And an Android user would much rather switch to an iOS device as it has the better ecosystem of the lot. Microsoft has just woken up, Apple and Google are currently ruling the market. Apple might not last long given the kind of growth Google is seeing, but they're making the best of it while they can. In 5 years, we'll know if what you just said has any meaning. Microsoft will have to make drastic changes to last in this department. The services offered by them in the desktop department is unparalleled, I'm with you there. But mobile OS is a whole different ball game. And unification won't be of any help for Microsoft, even with all the services it offers. The users just aren't convinced with Microsoft. Don't believe me? Look how the Surface RT is selling.
16. jroc74 (Posts: 5996; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
I dont know about an Android user wanting to go iOS over WP. WP offers choice of hardware. I know me, an Android user, would go WP before iPhone just because of choice of hardware.
26. RobotMan (Posts: 145; Member since: 13 Apr 2012)
I love Android and hate Apple. But if I leave Android, 100% sure I will go with Apple.
11. RaKithAPeiRiZ (Posts: 1488; Member since: 29 Dec 2011)
Microsoft will have a tough time appealing for those who want a proper pc like experience out of a phone or tablet ,in the end open platforms like android will reign but Microsoft will have a good spot with 20-30% of shares
12. networkdood (Posts: 6330; Member since: 31 Mar 2010)
No, as a former user of windows 6.5, I definitely say that windows OS will not be the dominant platform in 5 years.
15. meowcenary (Posts: 187; Member since: 13 Apr 2012)
I remember the WinMo 6.x days I left MS and only until recently returned to them with WP 7.x. I have to say MS redeemed themselves, albeit it's a little too late. I am currently enjoying WP 8.x which does not mean much.
23. eisenbricher (Posts: 973; Member since: 09 Aug 2012)
Windows 6.5 is a thing of past now, and so does your prediction. Things DO change. I bet on Nokia rising again and WP capturing at least 15% or more market next year.
14. MeoCao (unregistered)
I like u dude, but this is dumbest argument I've heard for a very long time.
What the reasons for Android to lose to WP?
What makes WP the No. 1 choice? ecosystem? but WP ecosystem sucks and it lives on MS life support.
You think Windows ecosystem will save WP? they are 2 separate things and WP can't run Windows apps.
Openess and creativity will win, and that's Android and Google not closed WP and monopolistic MS.
29. darac (Posts: 2156; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)
You are missing the crucial fact that in five years there will be 6 billion smartphones and desktop pc usage will shrunk dramatically,
There should be less than a billion desktop systems and vast majority of people will use phones and tablets for their computing needs.
Android is already unified across those platforms and it for sure won't stop.
Just wait to see Key Lime Pie
37. dmakun (Posts: 315; Member since: 06 Jun 2011)
I feel your logic is flawed because technology is moving towards micro & your reference to Windows desktop market share (power users)is irrelevant. Android taking people away from laptops/desktops appears a more likely scenario than the other way round. I see a situation where people will choose ultra capable computing on the move where android currently has everybody's attention.
I think Microsoft's interest to challenge Google & Apple in this market confirms they Microsoft are aware of this threat to their overall global market share. Google is a very smart company & I think we are yet to see where they are taking android just yet.
3. raphz (Posts: 35; Member since: 22 Oct 2012)
it seems imposible, my 5 years prediction will be +/-50% android, +/-20% apple, +/-20% wp, 10% other os (blackberry etc)
32. OHaZZaR (Posts: 131; Member since: 19 Aug 2011)
I don't see microsoft being 20%. 10% at most.
4. wendygarett (unregistered)
Hard to say, but the android will remain dominant in the next 5 year, unless something tragic happens... Whereas Apple, it will forever stable in 20% imo... But Windows phone and blackberry will definitely continue increased at 2013...
9. MC1123 (Posts: 1255; Member since: 12 Nov 2012)
again..you can never tell what will be the future!!
im rooting for jolla and BlackBerry 10....thats why i dont believe all the nonsense that the analyst says!
13. redmd (Posts: 1247; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)
unless those two have a great one of a kind feature then they will find hard to get relevant. Android will continue to dominate because it's still evolving.
17. phil2n (Posts: 487; Member since: 30 Apr 2012)
it seems like there's a lot of analysts in here
19. Dunknown (Posts: 84; Member since: 23 Jul 2012)
Android does change a lot. But the updates offered by Android is kinda bored. I found out that symbian is better os than android it is just that symbian is now officially over. Windows will be the choice of mine in the near future. I tried a Windows phone 8, it offers what I really inspire. That does not make me bored. While Android does. Windows phone 8 by Nokia will be my next phone till it announce the latest LUmia better than 920.
22. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5993; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)
When you don't have any new models to sell from what - July, 2012 to Feb/March, 2013, market share drop is inevitable for BB. I was curious how BB was going to do against MS, but now that doesn't look to be a contest. MS filled the void.
25. SonyXperiaNexus (Posts: 374; Member since: 01 Oct 2012)
It seems possible to me. my friends aren't tech savvy and they seem to like windows phone a lot. they dont use apps a lot, just some of the major ones. they say they like the fact its very smooth and different from other oses. even i like windows phone but im only going to buy it when it gets enough apps.
34. gazmatic (Posts: 794; Member since: 06 Sep 2012)
I cant defend windows phone because I have used it as yet. I have the sdk but that's not the same thing. People who defend android claiming features and open source dont know what they are talking about. Android has yet to become as feature rich as symbian and is not a true open source os. Not like maemo and meego. I'm rooting for jolla sailfish. Android dominated because and only because symbian wasn't optimised for touch screens and nokia didn't take the apple threat serious. A fatal mistake. Ios lacks key features and android is buggy buggy buggy. Meego was the full package that did everything. But it's dead. That is it's only downfall. N9 is superior to galaxy s3 in everything except specs. It is more stable, more consistent and more feature rich. Most fandroids commenting are still stuck on gingerbread. I mean my n9 got icecream sandwich before them! I'll update my gs3 to 4.1.2 to take advantage of the new features. Hopefully I'm not stuck on jelly bean when key lime pie comes out. It'll suck if my n9 gets key lime pie before my gs3. When I get my lumia 920 I'll get to compare the three but in terms of openness, my n9 wins hands down.
35. darac (Posts: 2156; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)
And that's why I hate M$, and Nokia for selling their soul to them.
They had incredible potential with Maemo and Symbian at their hands just to throw it all through the windows, pun intended.
Microsoft killed the competition by throwing money on Nokia and making them abandon their own development..despicable corporate way of competing at its lowest and worst.
38. Pdubb (Posts: 248; Member since: 08 Aug 2011)
I have had an Android phone for about 4 years now( I had the Moment when it first came out). I now have the Note, a high end device, and I can say that I am somewhat shaky with Android. I however see Android having issues much like MS had with Windows a few years back. When market share gets high you have an entire new set of problems. After what Google is going through with search I don't know if they can deal in so many fronts.
42. papss (unregistered)
I love the idiots on here predicting the future... I had been with android since day one... Had many many android phones and got so bored with the me to UI. No matter how many different ways I changed my icons location, no matter the wallpaper, live or still, it just seemed boring and MySpace like... I just switched to my amazing L920 and what it lacks in stupid apps it Makes up for it in character and soul.. It's like buying a Camry versus a mustang.. WP8 is so fresh and modern...google old news and I will never go back
43. jroc74 (Posts: 5996; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
I know what you posted is your opinion....but if you did that and still got bored with Android...you either didnt try hard enough are you just got bored and nothing was gonna keep you liking Android.
Android customization goes far beyond moving icons and changing wall papers. I just added a new launcher one time....and my kids and their mother thought I had a brand new phone.
Whats wild is there are WP launchers and whatnot for Android. Get the right Android phone and you can customize it even deeper. In the end....get what you want. BTW.....the idiots predicting the future....thats called an opinion. Where does it say one has to be an analyst to predict the future?