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Android could have 1 million daily activations in 2 weeks

Posted: , by Michael H.

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Android could have 1 million daily activations in 2 weeks
Android has been growing at an extraordinary rate, there's no way to deny that, but Michael Degusta over at the understatement wanted to figure out the exact numbers that we should expect during Google's next earnings call. The numbers are certainly impressive. 

What Degusta did was plot out the reported numbers for activations per day that we've heard from Google through various sources going back to April of last year, when Google reported a mere 60,000 Android activations per day. The latest number came from Google's earnings call in July,where it reported 550,000 daily activations for Android. Degusta then used a statistic that Andy Rubin had tweeted which said that Android activations were increasing by 4.4% every week. The numbers between that Andy Rubin tweet and Google's earnings call a couple weeks later confirmed that figure, and so Degusta plotted out how that compounded growth could look. 

Android could have 1 million daily activations in 2 weeks
As you'll notice in the chart, Android activations began ramping up around May of this year. And, based on the 4.4% growth stated by Andy Rubin, Google should be seeing about 800,000 daily Android activations right now, and could cross the 1 million activations per day by October 20th. That certainly seems like a believable statistic given the incredible sales of phones like the Samsung Galaxy S II. But, just to be safe, Degusta also plotted a more conservative projection, not using the compounding growth curve, which would bring Google to 1 million daily Android activations by December. 

Either way, the growth is crazy, and doesn't seem to be slowing down. Andy Rubin and crew must be quite proud. 

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posted on 07 Oct 2011, 20:33 8

1. wassup (Posts: 565; Member since: 23 Jun 2011)


woot woot!
android will continue dominating :D
lets hope it continues

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 20:35 1

2. Yeeee (Posts: 190; Member since: 02 Aug 2011)


Now that more phones are being activated each day i bet the percentage is less now. I mean 200,000 extra activations in 13 days?

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 20:58 13

3. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Insane growth. And to think Steve Ballmer laughed at Android when Google announced it.

*punches Ballmer in the face*

Ah. I feel better.

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 21:08 9

4. remixfa (Posts: 14255; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)


he just has one of those faces... lol. i bet he was the jackass in school that no one liked.

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 21:58 6

6. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


That's what I'm saying! It's just an irresistible urge I get when I see him! And he exacerbates the problem when he opens his mouth.

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 22:30 9

12. biophone (Posts: 1965; Member since: 15 Jun 2011)


He bashed both ios and android at release. Shows what he knows. Truly no vision.

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 02:26 3

16. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5993; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)


Nothing like Ballmer having to announce the sales failures of WP7 every quarter. They are going to have to announce WP8 to just get the attention off the WP7 sales failures. Even with Nokia releasing WP7 handsets, there is no way MS is going to approach the activation levels of Android. At this point, Android has run away and his from WP7.

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 04:41 1

21. asdas (unregistered)


lol fail fandroid

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 17:24

39. Goldeneye (Posts: 419; Member since: 22 Jan 2011)


This is something Microsoft should be happy about the more Androids get activated the more money MS makes

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 21:31 6

5. remixfa (Posts: 14255; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)


And apple was just bragging that they have sold 240 million iphones to date for the last 4 or so years. Basically android will do that in 240 days. Yup, apple definitely will get close to android with the i4s release.. lol

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 15:45 2

35. quang le (unregistered)


250m iOS, not iphones. Iphones probably 60-70% of that

posted on 09 Oct 2011, 06:08

45. joaolx (Posts: 364; Member since: 16 Aug 2011)


300 million iOS devices to be correct. xD

posted on 09 Oct 2011, 06:14

46. joaolx (Posts: 364; Member since: 16 Aug 2011)


You should know that Apple has only made 5 iPhones. Comparing to the hundreds of Android devices and the fact that there are several point prices(from free to 300$ on contract) what the iPhone has achieved is amazing.

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 22:16 2

7. ledbetterp3 (Posts: 467; Member since: 31 Aug 2011)


Hey, this isdnt on topic but on the costco website at&t cell phone section, for the motorola atrix 4g, isnt that a picture of the motorola atrix 2??

heres the link:
http://membershipwireless.com/index.cfm/utm_source/costco/utm_medium/landing

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 22:19 2

8. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Yes, that does look like it, esp. because the image changes when you click to go to the main Atrix page. Good catch. :)

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 22:23 2

11. ledbetterp3 (Posts: 467; Member since: 31 Aug 2011)


Thanks, yea it definitely is, heres a recent post of the atrix 2:

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Motorola-ATRIX-2-specs-revealed-press-shots-indicate-AT-T-launch_id22409

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 22:21

10. protozeloz (Posts: 5396; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)


Quick take a screenshot!

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 22:31 3

13. ledbetterp3 (Posts: 467; Member since: 31 Aug 2011)


I did, lol but whats the point, what do i do with the screenshot? Do I bate to it?

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 09:17

25. protozeloz (Posts: 5396; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)


Send it to a website, monday will be slow

posted on 07 Oct 2011, 22:20 4

9. protozeloz (Posts: 5396; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)


Now all google has to do is keep them customers happy and that number will remain high for a while.

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 01:50

14. Wyn66 (Posts: 7; Member since: 09 Aug 2011)


Seriously, people. C'mon. We know there are a lotta Android phones in the market and that's great. But, let's do the math here. In July Google claimed 550k/day. Now, the above estimate says 800k/day. That's an increase of 250k/day activations over a two month time period.

If it does reach 1 million by October 20th, that's another 200k/day activations in a single month. So, at 1 million daily activations, in a year's time that's 365 million activations. That's 1.095 billion in three years. At that rate, the entirety of the Earth's population will own Androids in a mere 20 years. That's providing it doesn't increase by 100% every 3 months like the article claims. If it does the time will be cut to roughly 6 years.

Uh... that's highly improbable. The above also doesn't take into account that not every individual on the planet has access to, the means to, or the ability to use a smartphone. It sounds great but... really?

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 03:38 4

18. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


I don't think that the argument here is that the growth will continue into perpetuity. Of course at some point we're going to see a stall in growth, but we haven't reached saturation yet and there is still plenty of room for growth.

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 09:44 2

28. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2705; Member since: 26 May 2011)


I certainly wouldn't expect the line to keep rising as Degusta has it. Obviously, it will level out eventually. I certainly don't expect it to hit the 3.5 million per day he has projected by the end of the year. But, I wouldn't be surprised to find out in the next earnings call that Android is around the 800-900k per day range, and at 1 million per day by the end of the year.

The number has room to rise a fair bit, because there are still quite a lot of feature phone users switching to smart phones. No one is trying to extrapolate this data farther than this year.

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 02:00 4

15. xenover (Posts: 174; Member since: 27 May 2011)


I can't wait to get my first Android phone.
THEN I CAN BE ON OF THE MILLIONS!!!

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 07:54 1

22. hawk62 (Posts: 320; Member since: 21 Nov 2009)


One of the millions with a phone that has browser that force closes, a app market that barely works, and phones that dont get updated! Yeah you

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 09:12 3

24. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


That's only if you're a user who bricks three brand new DROID Xs in a row.

Let's test your claims:

1) Something very rarely if ever force closes on my phone. I can't even recall the last time the browser did that on me.

2) the market works just fine. I download new apps and updates off it almost every day without a sweat.

3) Two out of the three Android phones I've had for any length of time (had a fourth for two weeks because I tried then had to drop a carrier) have received major OS updates. The first, my X, had two major OS updates. Once to Group and once to Gingerbread. Both times when bugs have popped up from the updates, subsequent updates have been released to fix those bugs. My Atrix, the other phone, has received one major OS update (and the model had a couple of minor updates before I bought one), and so far hasn't exhibited any bugs that make me think another major update needs to be rushed out.

The third phone was a CLIQ, which, quite frankly, is a CLIQ. But seriously, it was released at the dawn of Android and worked just fine as a basic Android phone with Cupcake.
By now if you buy a new Android phone you can usually tell which ones will actually get updated with new versions of the OS and which won't.

How does it feel being proven wrong, Hawk?

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 09:24 2

26. protozeloz (Posts: 5396; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)


Hawk will be hawk he is an idiot, I rarely doubt he could brick a droid x unless he did it trying to install a custom rom and even that way it can be Fixed in 30 minutes, if he wants the latest version of android all he has to do is get a nexus :)

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 15:39 3

34. Sniggly (Posts: 7305; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Hawk broke the laws of physics. His touch made three brand new DROID Xs defective, back when he tried them. That's what he told me about a year ago, anyway.

He also magically never thought that Verizon would charge money for tethering to a computer via wifi, and called them liars for this.

posted on 08 Oct 2011, 12:28

32. gallitoking (Posts: 4720; Member since: 17 May 2011)


you are one of the biggest defender of Adroid.. I want to hear some one whom are not fanboys.. for a change,,,,,

posted on 09 Oct 2011, 18:58

52. ledbetterp3 (Posts: 467; Member since: 31 Aug 2011)


he only major update phones that sniggly is talking about need now is ICS.

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